Georgia’s Business Confidence Dips as Financial Sector Weakens
Business confidence in Georgia slipped slightly in Q3 2025, falling by 0.2 index points to -1.5. The decline was driven by pessimistic expectations and weaker past performance, with the financial sector showing the steepest drop. Despite this, sales price expectations rose, hinting at potential price hikes in the coming months. The survey was conducted by the ISET Policy Institute in partnership with the BIA and the International Chamber of Commerce in Georgia.
Economic Uncertainty Weighs on Business Confidence
The Business Confidence Index (BCI) measures how optimistic or pessimistic companies feel about the economy. In Q3 2025, confidence fell for the first time since early 2025, reflecting a mix of sector-specific challenges. The largest decline came from financial services, which dropped by 19.5 points, followed by trade and agriculture. Conversely, manufacturing saw a strong rebound, gaining 15.4 points compared to the previous quarter.
Why This Research Was Conducted
The BCI is a quarterly measure designed to track business sentiment across Georgia’s key economic sectors. It helps policymakers, investors, and entrepreneurs understand market trends and prepare for future changes.
Key Research Findings
- The BCI fell to -1.5 in Q3 2025, with expectations dropping to 2.0 points.
- Past performance weakened, particularly in agriculture (-22.5) and trade (-20.7).
- Sales price expectations rose sharply to 22.0, led by manufacturing (+44.4).
- Large firms’ confidence increased by 16.6 points, while SMEs’ fell by 8.2.
What This Means for Georgia’s Economy
The mixed results suggest a split recovery. Large companies remain optimistic, while smaller firms face challenges like weak demand and limited access to finance. Rising price expectations may indicate inflationary pressure in late 2025. Future research will likely focus on whether optimism in manufacturing can offset weakness in finance and trade.
Read the Full Report
Explore the full analysis on the ISET Policy Institute website. You can also find more policy briefs on economic growth and development on the FREE Network website.
