Kyiv School of Economics: Ukraine Drones Disrupt Russia’s Oil Revenues

Ukrainian drone strikes are increasingly undermining Russia’s ability to capitalize on high global oil prices. In a recent Financial Times article, analysts examined how repeated attacks on key Baltic export terminals, including Primorsk and Ust-Luga, are disrupting flows and cutting into Moscow’s energy windfall. The report highlights how these strikes are exposing weaknesses in Russia’s infrastructure and defense systems amid a prolonged war.

Borys Dodonov, Head of Energy and Climate Studies at the Kyiv School of Economics, estimated that the attacks cost Russian energy exporters roughly $970 million in just one week. Dodonov’s analysis underscores the growing economic impact of Ukraine’s drone campaign, showing how targeted disruptions can directly reduce Russia’s export revenues despite elevated oil prices.

The Financial Times article also explored the broader implications for global markets and regional security. It noted sharp declines in naphtha exports from Ust-Luga and rising concerns over supply disruptions. The article further described how Russian companies are increasingly forced to fund their own anti-drone defenses, revealing systemic gaps in state protection and adding pressure on the domestic industry.

Learn more about how Ukraine’s drones dent Russia’s war-fuelled oil windfall in the FT article.

Further Reading: Russian Oil Tracker

The Russian Oil Tracker, a monthly report by the KSE Institute, monitors Russia’s oil exports, revenues, and the effectiveness of international sanctions. It combines data on export volumes, prices, shipping activity, and the use of “shadow fleet” tankers to estimate how much revenue Russia earns from oil and how sanctions impact its war financing. The tracker also evaluates compliance with policies such as the G7 price cap and highlights enforcement gaps, market trends, and key buyers like India and China. By providing monthly, data-driven insights, it serves as a key tool for policymakers and analysts assessing the real economic impact of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector.

Read the latest Russian Oil Tracker: “Export volumes and revenues collapse in February; as war in Iran drives oil prices”.