The Dynamics of Evasion: The Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports and the Amassing of the Shadow Fleet
On January 21, 2025, Julien Daubanes, Associate Professor at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU), will present his co-authored working paper, “The Dynamics of Evasion: The Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports and the Amassing of the Shadow Fleet,” at SITE and online via Zoom.
Working Paper: The Dynamics of Evasion – The Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports and the Amassing of the Shadow Fleet
This paper examines how Russia bypasses Western-imposed price ceilings on seaborne oil exports by expanding a “shadow fleet” that avoids Western services. Using a calibrated model, the study analyzes different sanctions and their impact on Russia’s economic profits. Surprisingly, the results challenge conventional wisdom. Stricter enforcement and lower price ceilings do not necessarily impose greater financial harm on Russia.
About the Speaker
Julien Daubanes is an Associate Professor at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) in the Department of Technology, Management, and Economics. He also works as an External Researcher at MIT’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR) and a CESifo Research Fellow.
He earned a Master of Science in Economic Theory and Econometrics (2004) and a Ph.D. in Economics (2008) from the Toulouse School of Economics, where the French Economic Association awarded him the Thesis Prize.
His research focuses on environmental economics, particularly the impact of climate policies on energy markets and corporate voluntary initiatives like green finance. His work appears in top academic journals, including the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Journal of Public Economics, and Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
Interested in Attending the SITE Seminar at SSE or Online via Zoom?
Participation is by invitation only. To request access, please contact site@hhs.se and follow these instructions:
- Email Subject: “SITE Seminar The Dynamics of Evasion”
- Include your affiliation and field of interest
- Specify if you will attend in person or online
Registered participants will receive a Zoom link and further details before the event.
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