Tag: Belarus Economic Forecast

Belarus inflation slowed in Q3 2025, as reported in BEROC’s Quarterly Inflation Review. The Annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 7.1% in September, while quarterly price growth more than halved. The baseline forecast now expects Belarus inflation to remain between 7–8% by year-end and throughout 2026.

What’s Driving the Cool-Down

In September 2025, the annual inflation rate was 0.9 percentage points below the July forecast, near the lower bound of its confidence interval. Fruit and vegetable prices dropped by 3.9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q3 2025, correcting after a sharp 53% QoQ surge in Q2 2025. As expected, the earlier price gap between Russian and Belarusian markets stopped influencing inflation by the end of Q2 2025.

A strong harvest helped stabilize food prices and reduced the risk of renewed acceleration in this segment. However, continued price controls on fruits and vegetables still limit price growth. Consequently, these measures may build up inflationary pressure and narrow supply if Russian prices rise sharply.

Inflation in the Non-Food Segment

Prices for non-food goods rose by 1.6% QoQ in Q3 2025, compared with 3.5% in the previous quarter. Median inflation in this category stood around 2.4% QoQ. The fastest price increases occurred in goods where authorities relaxed price controls earlier in the year. In contrast, most other categories experienced very weak growth because strict regulations remained in place.

Moreover, the overvaluation of the Belarusian ruble against the US dollar, euro, and yuan lowered prices for imported goods, especially electronic devices, adding another disinflationary factor.

Key Findings

• Annual CPI reached 7.1% in September; the Q4 baseline remains at 7–8%.
• The ruble was about 1% overvalued, providing a mild disinflationary effect.
• Money supply grew much faster than GDP, highlighting the monetary roots of inflation.
• Unregulated services remained strong, showing persistent demand-side pressure.

What It Means for 2026

The forecast projects Belarus’ inflation to stay around 7–8% next year. External factors are likely to ease inflation slightly, provided global supply chains remain stable. Nevertheless, strong wage growth and consumer demand will continue to create upward pressure, even as both slow down. Furthermore, if price controls ease, pent-up “inflationary overhang” could push prices higher.

Two major risks remain. First, a sharper decline in domestic demand could bring inflation closer to 5–6%. Second, unpredictable policy choices still pose uncertainty. Renewed fiscal stimulus could reignite inflation, whereas tighter controls might return if prices climb again.

Read the Full Report

Read the full report on the BEROC website to explore all charts and methods. Learn more about the Belarusian economy and find additional policy briefs on Belarus and its economic policy in the FREE Network publications section.

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.