This brief is based on a CEFIR research project aimed at the short-term forecasting of socio-economic development of the member-countries of the Single Economic Space (SES), conducted for the Eurasian Economic Commission in 2013. This project focused on compiling composite leading indicators that could allow policymakers to identify phases of a business cycle and to forecast its turning points. We suggest a methodology for the selection of components of the Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) for industrial production, and apply this methodology to predict industrial production in SES member states. Our methodology performs well for Russia and Kazakhstan, and slightly less so for Belarus.
This policy brief summarises the results and implications of an upcoming Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) 2012 Latvia Report: a study on the entrepreneurial spirit and the latest trends in entrepreneurial activity in Latvia. The results suggest that Latvia is a rather entrepreneurial country (it rates second out of all EU countries by the share of population in early-stage entrepreneurial activity). GEM also finds that Latvian early-stage entrepreneurial activity is counter-cyclical. Early-stage entrepreneurship and self-employment have been important supports for those who were hit by the crisis in 2008-2009. Latvian entrepreneurs are measured to have strong international orientation and growth ambitions. The majority of them are young and middle-age males; in turn, females and the older age group (55-64) represent an “untapped entrepreneurial resource” potential to be addressed by policymakers.