Tag: Democracy

Improving Women’s Political Representation Beyond Gender Quotas

Posted on October 20, 2025 | Policy Brief

Women waving Turkish flags during a political rally, symbolizing support for Political Representation Gender Quotas in Turkey.

While gender gaps in politics have narrowed considerably in recent decades, large disparities remain in several countries, especially those where binding gender quota laws have not been adopted. What are alternative pathways for increasing women’s political representation in these countries? We investigate one such pathway in the context of Turkey. A conservative dominant party, Erdogan’s AKP, is often challenged in local elections by a Kurdish party that promotes gender equality in electoral lists and in society more generally. Exploiting variation in Kurdish party wins in municipal elections during 2009-2019, we find that the Kurdish party winning leads AKP to increase its share of female candidates by 25 to 30% in the next election. Our data suggests that AKP’s response is primarily motivated by strategic considerations aimed at appealing to voters who may value gender-balanced representation. The implications of these findings extend beyond Turkey, suggesting that one party empowering women can help reduce gender gaps in lists across the board.

Pathways to Gender Equality in Political Participation

Across the world, women have historically been underrepresented in political institutions, but considerable progress has been made in recent decades. Legislated gender quotas are credited for having contributed significantly to such progress, especially in developing countries (Berevoescu and Ballington, 2021). Across different contexts, well-designed quotas have been shown to successfully increase the share of women in electoral lists and, although to a lesser extent, in legislative and leadership positions (see Campa and Hauser, 2020 for a review of this literature).

Research also suggests that the electoral system could influence women’s political participation, with more women being elected under proportional rather than majoritarian systems (Profeta and Woodhouse, 2022) and, within proportional systems, through closed rather than open lists (Gonzalez-Eiras and Sanz, 2021). Moreover, recent findings suggest introducing term-limits as a tool to boost women’s electoral prospects (Kansikas and Bagues, 2025).

However, despite the positive trends worldwide, large gender disparities in political representation persist in many countries. Some of the most entrenched inequalities are found in states governed by authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes promoting conservative values, where legal reforms to enhance gender equality are unlikely. For instance, the map in Figure 1, which assigns lighter shades of blue to countries where gender gaps in political empowerment are larger, shows that across Europe and Central Asia, four of the five lowest scoring countries are authoritarian or semi-authoritarian, namely Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Hungary and Turkey, which Freedom House ranks as “partly free” or “not free”.

Figure 1. Gender gaps in political empowerment

Source: World Economic Forum. Gender Gap Report 2025. Note: The figure shows country scores on the World Economic Forum’s Political Empowerment Index. Lighter shades of blue indicate a larger gender gap in political empowerment.

What are alternative pathways that may increase women’s political participation in such contexts, where gender quotas and other representation-enhancing electoral reforms are unlikely to be introduced?

In recent work – Campa et al. (2025) – we study one such pathway in the case of Turkey, namely the emergence of a competitive, albeit not dominant, party that commits to gender equality in lists and beyond.

Women’s Political Participation in Turkey

Despite early enfranchisement — municipal voting rights in 1930 and full suffrage in 1934 — women’s political representation in Turkey remains low. Women are severely under-represented in Parliament at around 20% after the 2023 elections. Turkey is also one of the 24 countries worldwide where women’s representation in local governance is below 15% (World Economic Forum). The share of female mayors was less than 0.5 percent between 1930 and 2004 (Koyuncu and Sumbas, 2016), with a minor increase observed since 2005. During this period, the share of female candidates in electoral lists for the municipal council also increased by 6 p.p., and the share of female councillors increased by 5 p.p., but as of 2019, these shares were still severely low, at, respectively, 14 and 12%.

AKP Versus the Kurdish Party

The under-representation of women in local governance masks stark differences between parties, especially between the ruling party, Erdogan’ Justice and Development Party (AKP henceforth), and one of the main opposition parties in local elections, the Kurdish party, which ran in 37% of the elections held between 2009 and 2019 and won 19% of them.

AKP is ideologically conservative and with a religious base. During the 20 years in power, it passed no law to increase women’s representation in politics, despite the vast gender gaps at all levels of government.

The Kurdish party instead stands out in the Turkish political landscape for its commitment to gender equality in many areas of society, including politics. For instance, currently the party pledges to enact a gender-mixed co-leadership system at the party level as well as a “zipper quota” in its electoral lists, and more generally advocates for a gender equal society “starting with the local governments” (see the party’s official website). Both the mixed-leadership system and a version of the candidate quota have been in place for two decades.

As a result, the share of female candidates for the municipal council is much higher in electoral lists associated with the Kurdish party, at 21% on average over the period 2009-2019, as compared to AKP’s 11%. The Kurdish party’s share of female candidates is also remarkably high in comparison to the other major opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP henceforth), which averages 13% female representation in its local electoral lists. The higher feminisation of the Kurdish party’s lists is reflected in the share of women elected: on average, only 6% of the councillors elected with AKP are women; this number goes up to 12% for CHP and jumps to 28% for the Kurdish party (see Figures 2 and 3).

Figure 2. Female share in candidate lists in municipal elections in Turkey.

Source: Author’s calculation based on own digitisation of data released by Turkey’s Higher Election Council (YSK). Note: The figure shows the share of women in candidates’ lists for the election of municipal councillors by party, focusing on the major party that governs at the central level (AKP) and its two main competitors at the local level (CHP and the Kurdish party).

Figure 3. Share of women elected as municipal councillors in Turkey, by party.

Source: Author’s calculation based on own digitisation of data released by Turkey’s Higher Election Council (YSK). Note: The figure shows the share of women elected as municipal councillors by party, focusing on the major party that governs at the central level (AKP) and its two main competitors at the local level (CHP and the Kurdish party).

We also note that the Kurdish party tends to elect a much larger share of female mayors than its competitors. According to the High Election Council (YSK) Election Statistics, in the 2009, 2014, and 2019 elections, the share of female mayors elected by the Kurdish party was respectively 21, 30, and 45%, whereas AKP elected less than 1% of female mayors in 2009, and this percentage remained stable at 1% in the 2014 and 2019 elections.

The Effect of a Kurdish Party’s Win on AKP’s Behaviour

Against this background and given the recent improvement in the share of female candidates across all parties (see Figure 2), we ask whether a Kurdish party victory prompts AKP to improve the gender equality in its lists in subsequent elections. By studying this question, we hope to contribute to shedding light on the forces that might help close gender gaps in political representation in relatively traditional societies governed by authoritarian or semi-authoritarian governments, where the under-representation of women in political institutions is particularly severe and gender quotas are unlikely to be adopted.

Using a novel dataset covering municipal council elections in Turkey in 2009, 2014, and 2019 —including candidates’ gender —we exploit within-municipality variation in Kurdish party victories to identify their impact on AKP’s female candidates’ share. We find that a Kurdish party win leads to a 2.8 to 3.4 p.p. increase in AKP female share of candidates in the next election, representing a 25–30% increase from a baseline of 11 p.p.; the estimate is robust across different econometric specifications, and we document that AKP lists were not on a differential trend in terms of share of female candidates in places where the Kurdish party wins – in other words, the increase in female candidates is only subsequent to the Kurdish party victory, strongly suggesting that it is indeed the result of AKP’s response to the growing popularity of the Kurdish party, and not the product of a secular trend of growing women’s representation. We also find that a win from another major opposition party, CHP, prompts smaller and only marginally statistically significant increases in female representation, suggesting that it is not just electoral competition that would force AKP to improve the selection of its candidates, but the Kurdish party’s gender focus that matters.

Why does AKP respond to a Kurdish victory by increasing its share of female candidates? Its behaviour could be strategic — appealing to voters who appear to care about some form of gender balance in lists — or stem from learning through exposure to capable female councillors. To gauge the relative importance of these different explanations, we exploit a special feature of the Turkish electoral system, namely parties submitting, together with the “main” list of candidates to be selected by voters, a “special quota” list containing the candidates directly assigned to the municipal council by the party if it wins the plurality vote. Such a list is not very salient to voters, and often not visible to them. We find no increase in women on AKP’s special lists after the Kurdish party wins, indicating the motive is likely an electoral strategy rather than internal reform.

Conclusion

Across the world, women have historically been underrepresented in political institutions. While gender gaps in political participation have narrowed considerably in recent decades, particularly due to the adoption of gender quotas, large disparities remain in many countries. Some of the most entrenched inequalities are found in states governed by authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes, where legal reforms to promote gender equality in politics are unlikely. Understanding alternative pathways for increasing women’s political representation in these contexts is a pressing challenge. We investigate one such pathway in the case of Turkey.

Although the ruling party, AKP, has remained resistant to gender-based reforms, it has increasingly faced local-level competition from a Kurdish party that consistently champions gender equality. Leveraging a new dataset covering municipal council elections in 2009, 2014, and 2019, we find that when the Kurdish party wins a municipality, AKP increases the share of female candidates in its master list by approximately 25 to 30% in the subsequent election.

The implications of these findings extend beyond the Turkish case. In political systems where institutional reform is unlikely, competitive pressure from parties that prioritise gender equality can still drive changes in political behaviour. Even without quotas, such parties can shift norms and electoral expectations, thereby inducing rival parties to adopt more inclusive practices.

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

Liberal Values in Ukraine Days Before the 2022 Invasion

Posted on September 22, 2025 | Policy Brief

Monument in Kyiv at sunrise symbolizing Ukraine liberal values of freedom, democracy, and resilience.

Just weeks before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the European Social Survey completed the 10th round of data collection on public attitudes and beliefs in Ukraine. This policy brief examines regional variation in liberal values such as attitudes toward democracy and the EU, based on that data. While respondents in Eastern Ukraine were more skeptical of democracy and EU integration, they did not consistently reject liberal social values to a greater extent than respondents in other parts of the country. The most striking divide however, lies in institutional trust, which was significantly lower in Eastern Ukraine. This suggests that trust in institutions, which may have been further negatively impacted by prolonged exposure to violence since 2014, underlie the observed regional differences in attitudes towards democracy and the EU. Understanding these differences is vital for policymakers navigating Ukraine’s reform and EU accession process.

Introduction

It has been well documented that values in post-communist countries in Eastern Europe on average, tend to be more authoritarian, more nationalistic, more in favor of state intervention in the economy, and more skeptical towards sexual and ethnic minorities and foreigners than in Western Europe (e.g., Roland 2012). Behind the averages, however, there is substantial variation in values across subgroups of populations. Even before the onset of the full-scale Russian invasion, a discussion on regional Ukrainian differences in relation to democratic values, the wish for EU integration, and similar liberal attitudes existed, both in and outside of the country.

The path towards a closer relationship with Europe and the EU started already in 2014, but since February 2022, Ukraine has politically positioned itself even closer to the EU, and an EU accession process is now underway. However, for a successful reform process in Ukraine, how public opinion is shaped and whether attitudes and values converge towards those of the EU will be important (Olofsgård et al. 2024).

With this in mind, this policy brief provides a descriptive account of public liberal values in Ukraine by analyzing data from the 10th round of the European Social Survey (ESS) conducted just weeks before the full-scale invasion on the 22nd of February 2022. Some of the differences we observe are likely long-standing and related to differences in language preferences and cultural and informational exposure from Russia and the EU, respectively. Yet, given the exposure to instability and conflict in the eastern part of Ukraine since 2014, we also discuss the role that exposure to conflict may have played in explaining several attitudinal dimensions, including satisfaction with democracy, support for liberal social values, attitudes toward Europe and EU integration, as well as levels of trust.

Data

The ESS round 10 data was collected through face-to-face interviews in Ukraine between January 18th, 2022, and February 8th, 2022. The nationally representative survey focuses on public attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors and includes questions on opinions on democracy, the EU, and similar topics commonly considered to capture liberal views.

ESS Sample Characteristics

The sample consisted of more women than men (about 59 percent and 41 percent, respectively). While the Ukrainian population is well-educated, most still find it difficult (41 percent) or very difficult (32 percent) to live comfortably on their income. 11.5 percent of the sample was unemployed, while 31 percent were retired. Broken down by location, most average outcomes are similar, albeit with the East displaying somewhat lower levels of education and greater income difficulties (see Figure 1 for an illustration of what oblasts (regions) are included in each geographical unit). Unemployment was, however, substantially higher in the West (about 15 percent), while the share of retirees was lower (26 percent).

Some heterogeneity exists when it comes to belonging to a religious denomination. In the Central and South, around 63 percent state they belong to a church/mosque/synagogue, etc. The East is roughly at par with the national average (70 and 69.5 percent, respectively), while this figure is 82 percent in the Western part of the country. Similarly, there are major differences in the language one most often speaks at home. In the country as a whole, 13.4 percent stated they speak both Ukrainian and Russian at home. In the East, this figure was as high as 27.1 percent, displaying the duality in mother tongue in this part of Ukraine. The corresponding figure for the West was 3.3 percent. On the contrary, 92.4 percent marked that they most often speak only Ukrainian at home in the West, whereas this figure was only 5.2 percent in the East.

Figure 1. Geographical Classification of Ukraine’s Oblasts

Note: The map depicts the ESS coverage at the time of data collection, excluding Crimea and Sevastopol – illegally annexed by Russia since 2014.

Key Variables of Interest

To understand the views on liberal values, ESS responses to questions in the following areas have been considered:

  • I. Merits of democracy: satisfaction with the way democracy works; importance of living in a democratic country.
  • II. Liberal democratic values: agreement with statements such as “gay men and lesbians should be free to live their own lives as they wish”; attitudes towards the merits of obedience, respect for authority, and loyalty towards leaders; attitudes towards immigrants.
  • III. Opinions about Europe and the EU: support for further EU integration; emotional attachment to Europe; vote intention in a hypothetical EU referendum.

Regional Differences

There are some clear regional divides in attitudes toward democracy, liberal values, and EU integration across Ukraine in the weeks leading up to the full-scale Russian invasion. These differences are particularly pronounced between Eastern Ukraine and the Center, South, and West – though not uniformly in the same direction.

Figure 2. Attitudes toward democracy, liberal values, and EU integration across Ukraine

Source: Authors’ creation from ESS.

On democratic commitment, only 37 percent of respondents in the East considered it “extremely important” to live in a democratically governed country. This was about 16 percentage points lower than the national average. When categories were grouped into low, medium, and high importance, the East still trailed the national average by about 10 percentage points (about 67.5 and 75 percent, respectively). Similarly, satisfaction with democracy is the lowest among respondents from the East (about 6 percent compared to a national average, including the East, of 11 percent). Geographical differences are also evident in the responses to the question on whether it is acceptable for a country to have a strong leader above the law. A smaller share rejected this in the East (about 30 percent compared to the national average of 37 percent).

However, the East stood out in the other direction on some core liberal values, as depicted in Figure 2. It had the lowest share disagreeing with LGBT rights (31 percent vs. 40 percent nationally), the weakest support for teaching children obedience (17 percent), and the highest rejection of it (41 percent). Further, only 12 percent in the East agreed that “the country needs most loyalty towards its leaders,” compared to 26 percent nationally. This question could reflect one’s view on the current leadership, warranting some caution in the interpretation. On immigration, however, the East was less liberal: only 19 percent saw immigrants as having a positive impact, versus about 30 percent nationally.

The sharpest regional divide between the East and other regions concerns attitudes toward Europe and EU membership. In a hypothetical referendum, 73 percent of respondents in the East said they would vote to remain outside of the EU, compared to 47 percent in the South, 23 percent in the Central, and just 11 percent in the West. Support for further European unification was also substantially lower in the East, with only about 17 percent in favor of further unification, as compared to the almost 50 percent national average. Similarly, emotional attachment to Europe is substantially lower among respondents from the East, with nearly all respondents stating low or medium attachment only – figures that nearly invert those of respondents from the West of Ukraine.

The Role of Trust

Turning to the measures of trust, the East clearly stands out. Trust in the parliament, the police, political parties, politicians, and the legal system was substantially lower among respondents from the East (in the ranges of 5 to 15 percentage points more respondents answered they had a low level of trust in said institutions than the national average). When asked about trust in the United Nations, the East also stood out with more than 50 percent stating low trust compared to the national average of about 37. The same pattern holds also when asked about the European Parliament – 73 percent compared to the national average of about 44 percent – stated low trust. Respondents from the South also displayed lower levels of trust across all measures, but the deviations from the average are about half as big as the East.

When asked whether people can generally be trusted, or one can’t be too careful, the East did not stand out in this way, underpinning how distrust is strongly directed toward institutions, both national and international.

Conflict Exposure

Figure 3 details the conflict intensity in the last two years leading up to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As can be seen, incidents of violence are concentrated in the Donbass area, including the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. While not marked by similar levels of active conflict, Kharkiv oblast – also part of the East classification – borders areas with high levels of conflict intensity in the Donbass, as well as Russia in the east.

Figure 3. Conflict intensity in Ukraine, by raion

2020

 

2021

Source: Authors’ creation from Armed Conflict and Location Data.

It should be noted that the map also depicts strategic deployments and political unrest, such as demonstrations, explaining the prevalence of “conflict” also in a few other places in Ukraine prior to February 2022. The occurrences of such incidents are, however, far less than those in Luhansk oblast and Donetsk oblast at the time. An important piece of information is that the intensity pattern holds for the time Armed Conflict and Location Data for Ukraine has been available (2018), i.e. individuals situated in the East have been exposed to incidences of violence over a prolonged period of time.

This raises the question whether this exposure to violence may have contributed to increased differences in trust in institutions and support for democracy and the EU beyond what was already there before 2014. The most immediate effect probably comes from selective migration, i.e., that individuals who remain in the eastern regions in early 2022 despite the violence since 2014 may be those who, on average, are more skeptical of the Ukrainian government and its tilt away from the authoritarian Russia and towards the EU. But previous literature and recent studies on Ukraine suggest that there may also be a direct effect coming from exposure to violence on an individual’s attitudes. This relationship has recently been mapped by Obrizan (2025). A key finding is that military solutions are preferred in the segment of the population that has experienced hardship and personal losses since the full-scale invasion in 2022.

More generally, any kind of trust – including the interpersonal one – can be affected by exposure to conflict. The relationship is complicated, and in some instances, violence can cause more pro-social attitudes and behavior. An important distinction, however, is that exposure to violence amplifies the distinctions in attitudes and behavior towards members of in- and out-groups (Olofsgård, 2025). This suggests that conflict may have further increased the differences between the East of Ukraine and the rest of the country, if many residents in the former perceive national and western institutions as being dominated by groups they do not feel strong attachments to.

Further, terror management theory (e.g., Landau et al. 2004) suggests that fear induces support for charismatic and strong leadership. In a context where liberal democracy is not everywhere well enough entrenched, this may tilt over into support for more authoritarian leadership in response to attacks triggering stronger emotions of fear. Furthermore, work by Feldman and Stenner (1997) shows that the impact of perceived societal threat on triggering stronger authoritarian preferences can depend on authoritarian predispositions. The latter is measured by, e.g., looking at attitudes towards child rearing and emphasis on obedience. In the context of the finding above, this would imply that the impact of violence on authoritarian preferences would be weaker in the eastern parts of Ukraine, compared to the rest of the country, a potentially interesting avenue for future research.

Conclusions

The findings in this policy brief nuance simple narratives about regional divides in Ukraine. While dissatisfaction with democracy and skepticism toward the EU are more common in the East, this does not necessarily correspond to a general rejection of liberal social values. In some cases — such as attitudes toward child-rearing, authority, and LGBT rights — respondents from the East even express more liberal views than elsewhere.

Not explicitly discussed in the brief is the topic of mother tongue. The data shows that Russian speakers are less emotionally attached to Europe and less supportive of EU integration. Yet, there is no consistent evidence that Russian speakers are less committed to liberal democratic values overall. The effect of language is difficult to disentangle from geography, particularly given the concentration of Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine.

What does stand out more clearly is that trust and the general view on institutions are substantially lower and more negative in the East. Respondents from the East consistently report lower trust in national and international political institutions. Interestingly, this pattern does not extend to generalized social trust — the East does not differ markedly from the rest of the country. This contrast suggests a more focused skepticism directed at formal institutions, rather than widespread social distrust. One possible explanation, as discussed in Olofsgård (2025), is that when exposed to conflict and violence, interpersonal trust may reflect confidence in one’s in-group, while institutional trust hinges on feeling represented within the broader political system. If respondents from the East perceive themselves as excluded from the national or European in-group, this could explain their lower levels of trust in both domestic and international institutions, and exposure to violence may have further amplified this. While signs of such alienation appear in the data, one should refrain from drawing too strong conclusions from this alone. Another possible explanation is that prolonged exposure to violence has eroded confidence in the government’s ability to protect citizens, and in the effectiveness of EU support, which would turn support away from the EU option preferred by the current government.  Future research on the effects of war exposure should more carefully disentangle the various aspects and forms of trust and how they relate to liberal values in Ukraine. Rebuilding institutional trust remains a key challenge. In this context, instilling peace and decentralizing political power may be essential for increasing trust in the Eastern part of the country, if that helps residents in the East to identify with public institutions. As Ukraine advances on its path toward EU membership, fostering a shared sense of national belonging will be critical in overcoming the narrative of an East–West divide when rebuilding the country.

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

The Polish Presidential Elections 2025: Can the Democratic Coalition Complete Their 2023 Victory?

Posted on May 26, 2025 | Policy Brief

Presidential Palace, Warsaw, Poland - representing the Polish Presidential Elections 2025.

It is safe to say that the outcome of the second round of the Polish presidential elections, scheduled for June 1, 2025, will determine the potential for significant structural reforms in the country in the coming years. The two candidates are: Karol Nawrocki, officially declared as a ‘civic candidate’ (though for all practical purposes associated with the previous government’s Law and Justice party, Prawo i Sprawiedliwość – PiS), and Rafał Trzaskowski representing the main coalition party in the current government, the Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska), which came to power after the parliamentary elections in October 2023. In the first round of the 2025 presidential election, which took place on May 18, 2025, Rafał Trzaskowski came first with 31.4 percent of the votes and Karol Nawrocki second with 29.5 percent. This policy brief explores the mechanisms through which the Polish President can influence current policy, using past economic initiatives as illustrative examples. It also examines the results of the first round of the election in greater depth and highlights key areas where reforms would likely face significant obstacles, were Karol Nawrocki to win the decisive second round.

What Can the Polish President Do?

Although elected in a popular vote, the Polish President’s power in terms of influence on policies is highly limited. The President acts as the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland and is officially responsible for representing Poland on the international arena. However, most of the executive power in Poland lies with the government, which in turn requires the support of the Parliament.

That said, the past ten years of Polish politics—the years under the outgoing President Andrzej Duda—have shown that a government with only a narrow parliamentary majority can be highly dependent on the President. Its effectiveness may be either enhanced by a cooperative President or significantly constrained through the use of the presidential veto on legislative initiatives.

Andrzej Duda, who was picked as a surprise candidate to represent the Law and Justice party—in a similar manner to Karol Nawrocki today— won the elections in 2015. He facilitated a series of destructive reforms in the areas of the judiciary, education, and the labor market in the years Law and Justice party headed the government; later he blocked many of the current government’s efforts to reverse those policies.

The outcome of the vote on June 1, 2025, will therefore be crucial for the prospects of a clear return to democratic standards in Poland, and for the deeper structural reforms needed to place the Polish economy on a long-term development path. The winning candidate will also either facilitate coordinated efforts in international policy and joint European initiatives, or act to obstruct the current government’s actions in this area—including key policies related to support for Ukraine.

The President’s Influence on Economic Policy: Electoral Promises vs. Implementation

The limited executive power of the Polish President does not stop the candidates from coming forward with rich electoral programmes. These cover many areas outside of the President’s direct sphere of influence, including economic policies.

Using Andrzej Duda’s presidency as an example, it seems that while some of these are eventually implemented (although typically not without political frictions involving the Parliament) others tend to be more of electoral slogans than areas of real concern:

In 2015, Andrzej Duda campaigned on two major economic initiatives: lowering the retirement age and substantially increasing the main income tax allowance. In the first case, he came forward with a legislative proposal to the Parliament almost immediately after being elected, aimed at restoring the lower retirement age of 60 for women and 65 for men. Although the government had campaigned on the same reform before taking office, the Parliament froze Duda’s initiative for a year in an effort to introduce less drastic changes to pension eligibility criteria. Eventually, political considerations and the weight of the 2015 electoral promises prevailed. As a result, Poland is the only EU country with as big as a five-year gap in the retirement age between men and women. The electoral tax reduction proposal was, however, quickly abandoned. As shown in a recent commentary (Myck et al. 2025a), Duda not only failed to deliver on this promise but, over his ten-year presidency, largely ignored tax policy altogether—both in terms of initiating legislation and engaging in public debate on fiscal matters.

Initiatives by earlier presidents also show that while Polish presidents are always dependent on the Parliament, they can exert some influence over economic policy. For example, Bronisław Komorowski (in office 2010-2015) put forward a legislative initiative to change tax regulations for families with children, which the government later took on board. While the government’s implemented regulations differed from Komorowski’s proposal, they were still in line with his objectives (Myck et al. 2013).

These examples clearly illustrate that the success of any initiative from the president’s office ultimately depends on the parliamentary majority the President is able to mobilize. Based on the electoral promises of this year’s top candidates, such a majority seems highly unlikely regarding one of the major electoral promises of Law and Justice’s candidate, Karol Nawrocki. Nawrocki has proposed a substantial income tax reduction for families with 2 or more children, designed in a way that would heavily benefit the richest families (Myck et al. 2025b). The reform is estimated to cost about 19bn PLN (0.5 percent of GDP) per year, with over 60 percent of the total amount benefiting families in the top income quintile. Such a measure is extremely unlikely to gain support not only from the current government, but also—given its distributional consequences—from within Nawrocki’s own political base. One way to interpret this is that much like the deep tax cuts proposed by Andrzej Duda in 2015, Nawrocki’s tax proposal bears the hallmarks of a simple and appealing campaign slogan that is likely to be forgotten, whether or not he wins the election.

The First Round Results and Final Vote Prospects

While Rafał Trzaskowski placed first in the initial round of voting on May 18, 2025, the difference between the top two candidates came down to only 1.8 percentage points. This suggests a very close race in the second round and intensive electoral campaigning in the days leading up to the election. How close the runoff will be depends on the split of votes among those who supported other candidates in the first round, as well as their participation levels in the second round.

In the first round the top seven candidates collected 96.1 percent of the votes in total. Two candidates representing the current coalition parties received 5.0 percent (Szymon Hołownia) and 4.2 percent (Magdalena Biejat) of the votes, respectively. Two other main right-wing candidates collected a combined 21.2 percent: Sławomir Mentzen (Konfederacja party) received 14.8 percent, and Grzegorz Braun (Wolność party) received 6.3 percent. Adrian Zandberg, representing the left-wing opposition (Razem party), received 4.9 percent.

If those who voted for the government coalition candidates fully shift their votes to Trzaskowski in the second round, he could count for about 40.6 percent of the vote – still far short of the necessary majority. To secure the win, he would need to collect some support from both the left and the right. However, it is unlikely that voters in either of these cases unilaterally shift support to one of the top candidates.

As shown in Figure 1 below the main candidates will have to make strong appeals to the youngest voters (aged 18-29), the majority of whom supported Mentzen (34.8 percent) and Zandberg (18.7 percent). Trzaskowski is more likely to attract support from women and better educated voters. Based on the results of the first round, Nawrocki, can count on voters with less than tertiary education and on slightly more votes from men. While Biejat and Hołownia have already publicly endorsed  Trzaskowski, the other candidates have so far refrained from making any declarations of support.

The public debate ahead of the second round is likely to focus on military and economic security, migration and support for Ukraine (including its refugee population in Poland). The final round of the 2025 presidential race in Poland is likely to be extremely close and highly polarising.

Figure 1. Poll results from the first round in the Polish Presidential Elections 2025, by demographics

Source: TVP info. Note: Late poll results by IPSOS, based on the results from 90 percent of the polling stations.

Completing the 2023 Parliamentary Victory

The democratic, pro-European coalition that won a parliamentary majority in October 2023 has so far only been partly successful in restoring the rule of law and a functioning system of checks and balances after their dismantling by the previous government. Other electoral promises from 2023—such as the liberalization of abortion rules, legislation on same-sex partnerships, and reform of the public media—remain to be implemented.  The government implemented some important changes in the public media and judiciary, but broader reforms were either vetoed by President Duda or postponed due to the likelihood of his opposition.

On a number of occasions Duda also used a procedure called ‘preventive control’. Under such procedure, legislation is sent to the Constitutional Tribunal before the President decides whether to sign it or not. Since the Constitutional Tribunal has been central to controversies over judicial reforms introduced by the previous government, such decisions are simply another form of delaying the implementation of new legislation. There is thus little doubt that Rafał Trzaskowski’s victory on June 1st, 2025, is essential for the current government. It would enable reforms crucial for the return of the rule of law, for bringing back the Polish legal system in line with decisions of the European Court of Justice, and for advancing other major reforms in public media, women’s and minority rights, and more. From this point of view Karol Nawrocki’s win on June 1st, 2025, is key for the parties of the previous government, to stop these fundamentally important reforms.

The current government is facing important challenges in many policy areas and effective  cooperation with the new President will be fundamental. Given the current level of government debt and high budget deficits, it will have to take significant steps to consolidate public finances. At the same time, it has committed to increasing spending on healthcare and education, while maintaining one of the highest levels of military spending among NATO countries.  The government must also handle the challenges of demographic ageing and migration flows – all in the context of the continuing Russian aggression in Ukraine, and the overall global uncertainly. Even with strong presidential support, tackling all these issues will be challenging.Facing them under an antagonistic Head of State—in the case of Nawrocki’s victory—would not only make the government’s task significantly harder, it with also have serious implications for medium-term political stability in Poland and potentially other European countries.

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

How Social Assistance Shapes Election Outcomes: The Case of Georgia

Posted on January 27, 2025 | Policy Brief

Protesters waving Georgian flags in front of the Parliament building in Tbilisi, Georgia, during a public demonstration following election outcomes.

This policy brief investigates the relationship between social assistance programs and election outcomes in Georgia, focusing on the 2024 parliamentary elections. Our regression analysis establishes a statistically significant link between an increase in social assistance beneficiaries and the vote share obtained by the incumbent Georgian Dream party. The results raise critical questions about the potential use of social assistance programs as a strategic political tool. Specifically, a 1 percentage point increase in targeted social assistance beneficiaries as a share of the population lead to an, on average, 0.5 percentage point increase in the Georgian Dream’s vote share, even after controlling for poverty-related factors. The findings recognize the dual impact of social assistance programs – alleviating poverty while shaping political behavior. They also underscore the need for ensuring that social assistance remains focused on addressing the needs of vulnerable populations without exerting undue political influence.

Introduction

The relationship between social assistance programs and electoral outcomes has gathered significant attention in both academic and policy circles, especially in the last decade. Social assistance programs, designed to support vulnerable populations, often carry political implications, particularly in developing democracies where incumbent governments may leverage these programs to secure voter loyalty. In Georgia, one of the largest components of social assistance is the targeted living allowance program, which, unlike other types of social assistance – such as those for individuals with special needs, internally displaced people, or elderly population –relies on assessing the beneficiaries’ poverty levels through proxy means testing (PMT). This makes subsistence allowance benefits vulnerable to biased, favorable selection by those in power. Allegations exist that the government may have strategically used this program, including increasing the number of beneficiaries in the lead-up to elections to secure votes or threatening existing beneficiaries with the withdrawal of their assistance based on their disclosed political preferences (Shubladze (2024); Japaridze (2023); Social Justice Center (2024)).

This policy brief explores the impact of social assistance on electoral outcomes in Georgia, specifically assessing whether increases in the number of targeted subsistence allowance beneficiaries during the 2020-2024 period influenced the votes received by the incumbent party in the 2024 parliamentary elections.

This analysis is especially important given the recent developments in Georgia’s political landscape. The 2024 parliamentary elections marked a critical juncture, with the Georgian Dream claiming to have secured 53.93 percent of the votes. Concerns over the fairness and transparency of the elections have been widespread. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) reported systematic election irregularities, including pressure on voters, media bias, unequal campaign conditions, and election-day practices that compromised the ability of some voters – including public sector employees and recipients of social assistance – to cast their ballots without fear of retribution.

Our regression analysis documents a positive relationship between the number of living allowance beneficiaries and the votes garnered by the incumbent party across Georgian municipalities, raising further concerns about the integrity of the electoral process, and the allocation of state funds.

Political Implications of Social Assistance Programs: A Global Perspective

The link between social assistance and electoral outcomes has been widely studied. Social assistance programs often serve a dual purpose: they alleviate poverty and provide tangible support to vulnerable citizens while also shaping political behavior, particularly voting patterns. These programs can enhance incumbents’ electoral support by fostering gratitude among recipients, signaling government competence in addressing social needs, or creating concerns among beneficiaries that their political preferences if exposed, may influence the government’s decisions when choosing the beneficiaries of social assistance.

Research by De La O (2013) provides a compelling case in the context of Mexico. Examining the Progresa/Oportunidades conditional cash transfer program, De La O find that the program led to an increase in both voter turnout and incumbent vote share.

Zucco (2013) contributes further evidence from Brazil, where the Bolsa Família conditional cash transfer program emerged as a cornerstone of electoral strategy. Zucco demonstrates that municipalities with higher proportions of cash transfer beneficiaries tended to favor incumbent candidates in three different presidential elections, establishing a clear link between social assistance and voting behavior.

Adding to this body of work, Layton & Smith (2015) provide further insight into the nuanced ways in which targeted social assistance programs influence voter behavior in Latin America. The authors theorize that such programs simultaneously mobilize non-voters and convert opposition supporters, with variations based on country-level political and programmatic differences.

In addition, recent research from Indonesia further illustrates the impact of social assistance budgets on electoral outcomes. A study by Dharma, Syakhroza, and Martani (2022) examines 212 regencies and cities in Indonesia where incumbents participated in local elections. The findings reveal a direct positive effect of social assistance spending on incumbent votes. The authors further claim that high political competition counteracts incumbents’ advantages and mitigates the effectiveness of such spending.

The international literature thus provides valuable motivation for exploring the Georgian case, where social assistance may play a similar role in shaping voting behavior.

The Georgian Context

The deeply controversial October 26, 2024, parliamentary elections in Georgia mark a pivotal moment in the country’s political history. According to the Central Election Committee of Georgia, the ruling party, the Georgian Dream, secured 53.93 percent of the votes, maintaining its dominant position in Georgian politics. However, the elections were accompanied by widespread allegations of electoral malpractice, casting a shadow over their legitimacy and raising concerns about the future of democratic governance in the country.

OSCE’s ODIHR provided a comprehensive observation of the electoral process, noting both positive aspects and critical shortcomings. While the elections were generally well-administered, ODIHR’s final report emphasized significant concerns related to the broader political environment. Key issues included the adoption of legislation that undermined fundamental freedoms, restrictions on civil society, and a pervasive atmosphere of voter intimidation. Specific election-day practices, such as pressuring voters and leveraging administrative resources, were highlighted as undermining the integrity of the process. The report also mentions instances in 16 municipalities where public sector employees and economically vulnerable groups, particularly those reliant on social assistance, faced pressure to support the ruling party. Such fear of losing social benefits or facing retribution at work creates an atmosphere where voters struggle to form independent opinions and vote independently.

Further scrutiny from independent analysts has shed light on systematic irregularities that suggest the elections may not have reflected the genuine will of the Georgian electorate. Gutbrod (2024) suggests that tactics such as vote buying, mass intimidation, and direct manipulation of electoral outcomes were employed, leading to statistical anomalies. Specifically, the Georgian Dream’s support increased disproportionately in precincts linked to reported violence and irregularities. Additionally, social assistance beneficiaries were identified as a target group for snowball mobilization, organized by individuals affiliated with the Georgian Dream – a method where participants are encouraged to mobilize or identify a certain number of additional people to expand voter outreach and engagement.

Social Assistance in Georgia

The Law of Georgia on Social Assistance outlines several types of social welfare programs aimed at addressing the needs of vulnerable populations. These include living allowance, reintegration assistance, foster care allowance, adult family member care allowance, non-monetary social assistance, and social package. Among these, the targeted social assistance program, commonly referred to as the “living allowance“, holds particular significance. This program is designed to provide financial support to families living in extreme poverty. Eligibility for the living allowance is determined through a proxy means test that evaluates the socioeconomic conditions of applicants, ensuring that the assistance reaches those most in need. For this policy brief, the focus will be on beneficiaries of the living allowance (hereafter social assistance beneficiaries), as their numbers and electoral behavior present a unique opportunity to analyze the intersection of social assistance and voting patterns in Georgia.

As of October 2020 (previous parliamentary elections’ date) 142,870 families in Georgia received social assistance, benefiting a total of 510,343 individuals. The total amount of social assistance transfers during this period amounted to 28,825,259 GEL. Over the next four years, leading up to the 2024 Parliamentary Elections, social assistance grew significantly. By October 2024, the number of families receiving assistance had increased by 25 percent to 178,107 families, while the number of individual beneficiaries rose by 34 percent, reaching 684,432. The most notable expansion occurred in the total amount of social assistance transfers, which surged by 143 percent to 69,936,512 GEL. This corresponds to a cumulative annual growth rate of 25 percent (Social Service Agency of Georgia, 2024).

In 2022, an important modification was introduced for social assistance beneficiaries aged 18 years to retirement age and without disabilities or serious health conditions, offering employment opportunities mainly, in the public sector with a salary of up to 300 GEL per month. These wages did not affect recipients’ existing social assistance benefits. Participants had the option to take suitable public sector jobs, formalize any informal employment, or, if formally employed in the private sector, provide necessary documentation. The modification covered also new beneficiaries who were not already formally employed. Notably, families or individuals enrolled in the program were guaranteed eligibility for a living allowance for four years, as their social assistance status would not be reassessed during this period.

As of October 2024, 50,962 families were enrolled in the program with guaranteed social assistance, accounting for 28.6 percent of all families receiving social assistance. The monthly spending of social assistance transferred to these families amounted to 22,766,706 GEL, representing 33 percent of the total social assistance transfers.

The significant increase in social assistance beneficiaries and the introduction of the 2022 program for employing social assistance recipients, guaranteeing them four years of social assistance transfers, highlight the growing scope and influence of targeted social welfare initiatives in Georgia. While these developments may have addressed pressing socioeconomic challenges, they also raise important questions about the potential political motivations. Specifically, the substantial increase in the number of beneficiaries and the guaranteed eligibility linked to employment programs could be interpreted as mechanisms to foster voter loyalty and mobilization in favor of the ruling party.

Methodology and Results

To examine the relationship between the increase in social assistance beneficiaries and electoral outcomes, particularly the votes garnered by the incumbent Georgian Dream party, we employ a regression analysis framework. This statistical method allows us to explore whether and to what extent the growth in social assistance recipients is associated with the changes in the vote share of the incumbent party. Since social assistance depends on the varying levels of poverty across municipalities, we incorporate control variables that isolate the effect of economic well-being, minimizing potential confounders.

The study utilizes data from two primary sources: information on social assistance recipients, including families, and individuals, and the total amount of transfers across municipalities, was retrieved from the Social Service Agency of Georgia. This dataset covers 64 municipalities (and self-governing cities) in Georgia. From 2022, data includes families and individuals guaranteed to retain their socially vulnerable status for four years under the State Program for Promoting Public Employment. Second, election data was sourced from the Central Election Commission of Georgia, covering both the 2024 and 2020 parliamentary elections. The 2024 data covers the results from both electronic and non-electronic voting. Key variables include the number of registered voters, total votes cast, and votes obtained by the Georgian Dream and opposition parties. This election data is also aggregated at the level of the 64 municipalities (and self-governing cities).

Information on poverty levels in Georgian municipalities is not publicly available; therefore, we utilize control variables for employment and economic activity with the latter proxied by either the municipalities’ tax revenues or the value added generated in the private sector. Information on employment and value added are gathered from the National Statistics Office of Georgia, while data on tax revenues is retrieved from the Ministry of Finance.

The following table describes the results of the regression analysis.

Table 1. Regression analysis results

Source: Author’s calculations.
Note: The values in parentheses indicate the p-value. *Significant at the 10 percent level; **Significant at the 5 percent level; ***Significant at the 1 percent level.

The first regression (column 1) investigates the relationship between the change in social assistance beneficiaries as a share of the population and the change in the Georgian Dream party’s vote shares, displaying a significant relationship between the two. Specifically, the coefficient (0.49) is significant at the 5 percent level, suggesting that a 1 percentage point increase in social assistance beneficiaries as a share of the population, increases the vote share for the Georgian Dream by approximately 0.49 percentage points.

To control for the effect of poverty, we first use employment rates in 2023 (the latest available data) as a proxy for poverty. Column 2 presents these results. In this specification, the coefficient for the change in social assistance beneficiaries remains significant at 5 percent level and its value (0.47) remains consistent with the previous specification. The model further suggests that poverty is also positively and significantly (at the 1 percent level) associated with incumbent votes – the higher the poverty (lower employment) in municipalities, the higher the Georgian Dream vote share.

In the next step (column 3), we model the relationship between the change in the Georgian Dream’s vote share, change in employment as a share of the population, mobilized local tax revenues per capita, and the change in number of social assistance beneficiaries as a share of the population. Change in employment, calculated as the difference between 2019 and 2023 employment levels (as a share of the population), is used as a proxy for change in poverty.  Tax revenues per capita for 2023 reflect economic activity across municipalities and self-governing cities, serving as a proxy for well-being. As seen in the table, change in employment is not statistically significant, however, the amount of tax revenues mobilized across municipalities is modestly significant. The coefficient for change in social assistance beneficiaries is once again statistically significant and consistent with the other specifications in terms of magnitude (at 0.51).

As a robustness test (column 4) we replace the previously used proxy for economic well-being (tax revenues), with the private sector value added per capita for 2023, which significantly (at the 1 percent level) correlates with an increase in the vote share for the incumbent party. Changes in employment remain insignificant. Importantly, the coefficient for change in social assistance beneficiaries remains positive (0.53) and statistically significant at the 1 percent level.

The discussed regression models were tested for a different dependent variable as well. In addition to observing the impact of change in vote shares, we also analyzed the impact on the number of votes cast for the Georgian Dream party between the 2020 and 2024 Parliamentary Elections. Changes in social assistance beneficiaries remain a significant explanatory variable in this specification as well.

The estimated impact of social assistance is consistent across all models, both in magnitude and significance, reinforcing the finding that increases in living allowance beneficiaries are strongly associated with higher vote shares for the Georgian Dream party, underscoring the critical role of social assistance in shaping electoral outcomes.

Conclusion

The analysis demonstrates a strong and statistically significant relationship between the increase in social assistance beneficiaries and the vote share obtained by the incumbent Georgian Dream party in the 2024 parliamentary elections. Even after controlling for poverty and economic well-being, the results highlight the impact of social assistance in shaping electoral outcomes. The findings suggest that a 1 percentage point rise in social assistance beneficiaries as a share of the population translates into a 0.47–0.53 percentage point increase in the Georgian Dream’s vote share. When contextualized within the overall election results, these estimates suggest that the expansion of the targeted social assistance program may have garnered the Georgian Dream an additional 45 ,500 to 50,000 votes, representing 2.2–2.5 percent of the total votes.

The results raise critical questions about the potential use of social assistance programs as a strategic political tool. The robustness of the relationship across multiple models suggests that the observed trends are not merely byproducts of economic conditions but reflect a deliberate link between social assistance expansion and electoral outcomes. The implications are significant for democratic governance in Georgia. The strategic use of social welfare programs risks undermining public trust in the electoral process and highlights the need for greater transparency and accountability in the implementation of social assistance policies. Recognizing the dual impact of these programs – alleviating poverty while potentially shaping political behavior – will be critical in fostering fairer electoral conditions and ensuring that social assistance remains focused on addressing the needs of vulnerable populations without undue political influence.

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

Dreaming of Entrepreneurship or Requiem for a Dream – What Kind of Future Do Parents Envision for Their Children in Belarus?

Posted on November 4, 2024 | Policy Brief

A person performing high-altitude cleaning on a roller coaster structure, symbolizing bravery and entrepreneurship spirit in Belarus, with future generations and children in mind.

Even under current conditions in Belarus, society remains focused on freedom and fostering entrepreneurship. The perception of business as a means of minimizing interaction with the state still exists. This policy brief discusses parents’ perceptions of entrepreneurship as a possible area of self-realization for their children in Belarus, to analyze the role of the family in the formation and reproduction of entrepreneurial capital for future generations. The policy brief is based on a representative survey of individuals aged 18 to 64 who reside in Belarus, conducted from June to August 2024. The findings suggest Belarusian parents are largely positive toward entrepreneurship as a future avenue for their children, despite the continuing deterioration of conditions for the business sector.

The perception of private business and entrepreneurship in Belarus has undergone significant transformation over the course of the country’s modern history. Emerging from the Soviet era, which was distinctly anti-entrepreneurial, both the business sector and the Belarusian society have evolved. In a context where mass privatization did not take place, society – initially skeptical of entrepreneurs, often viewing them as dishonest “speculators” – gradually came to recognize that entrepreneurs are generally hardworking individuals who not only generate income for themselves but also create opportunities for others.

Despite the Belarusian authorities’ conservative and often restrictive approach toward business and entrepreneurship, pro-entrepreneurial values have taken root in Belarusian society. This has contributed to the development of a relatively dynamic and productive private sector, increasingly seen as a desirable environment for employment and growth. From 2012 through 2020, the share of the private sector in employment increased by 7.7 percentage points, in export sales of goods and services by 23.9, and in GDP by 14.6 percentage points, respectively (Daneyko et al., 2020).

Over time, businesses in Belarus have thrived, largely due to entrepreneurial skills, investment in human capital, and adaptability to external conditions, rather than reliance on state support or natural resources.

These dynamics further accelerated when Belarusian authorities realized that relying on and investing in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) was not generating the desired economic growth and employment, and a gradual liberalization of business conditions was introduced (Daneyko et al., 2020). This liberalization allowed the government to delay urgent structural reforms needed in the SOE sector, focusing instead on reducing excess employment, which was absorbed by the growing private sector (Chubrik, 2021; BEROC, 2023).

However, following the 2020 presidential elections and subsequent mass protests, the contribution of the private sector to the economy began to be downplayed in official rhetoric. Entrepreneurs were increasingly portrayed as dishonest individuals, profiting from unjustified price increases and lacking loyalty to the state. In response, the government intensified control over entrepreneurial activities, adopting several significant legislative changes aimed at regulating prices and individual entrepreneurs’ activities.

Moreover, the comprehensive sanctions imposed on Belarus in recent years have made the overall business environment more opaque and challenging. These conditions have enhanced the risk of legal violations during business operations, which in turn increases the personal risks for business owners and managers, potentially threatening their personal freedom.

In this hostile environment, families have become the decisive factor influencing one’s decisions about creating businesses and providing emotional, financial, and instrumental support.

Family as a Driver of Entrepreneurial Careers

There is significant evidence that family upbringing plays a crucial role in fostering entrepreneurial qualities and skills in children, which in turn positively influences their interest in starting their own businesses (Chauhan et al., 2024; Osorio et al., 2017). Parents’ knowledge, accumulated experience, and willingness to provide emotional and practical support further encourage entrepreneurial aspirations in children. A family’s support in developing relevant values and qualities also reflects how attractive entrepreneurship is in the eyes of parents.

Families also serve as role models, transmitting best practices and influencing children’s educational and career choices (Edelman et al., 2016). This support can help young people overcome common barriers to entry into entrepreneurship, such as lack of experience, resources, or social capital, increasing the prospect of starting their own.

The role of family support is particularly important in environments with insufficient structural or financial backing for entrepreneurship, as is the case in Belarus (Maleki et al., 2023; Guerrero & Marozau, 2023). In such contexts, the family’s role in fostering entrepreneurial ambition becomes a key factor in enabling the next generation of entrepreneurs to succeed.

Attitudes Towards Entrepreneurs

The perception of business in Belarus is reflected in the general attitude toward entrepreneurs and their role in the economy and society. Parents are the main influencers and role models shaping children’s entrepreneurial attitudes like risk-taking, problem-solving, and independence (Georgescu & Herman, 2020).

In a recent survey of 2,000 Belarusian respondents aged 18 to 64, including 826 parents of children under 18, participants were asked to select the statement that best describes their attitude towards Belarusian entrepreneurs. The findings suggest that individuals with children under 18 tend to have a more positive view of business and are more likely to choose favorable statements about entrepreneurs (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. Attitudes towards entrepreneurs

Graph showing attitudes towards Belarusian entrepreneurs by age and parental status, highlighting views on entrepreneurship.

Source: Calculations based on survey data. Note: The graph displays the answers to the question “Which statement best describes your attitude towards Belarusian entrepreneurs?” and is displayed as percent of respondents in the corresponding group.

Almost half of the respondents who have children under 18 (49.9 percent) describe their attitude towards entrepreneurs as the most positive option choice as they “earn their living through honest labor, generate employment opportunities, and stimulate economic development”. This share is significantly higher than among respondents without children (37.8 percent). A very positive attitude toward Belarusian entrepreneurship is also characteristic of young cohorts of respondents aged 18–24 (47.7 percent) and 25–34 (49.5 percent). This resonates well with the distribution found in a previous study by the IPM Research Center and BEROC (2019) and indicates that recent changes in the official rhetoric and entrepreneurship-related legislation have not yet damaged the public image of Belarusian entrepreneurs and businessmen.

Preferred Careers for Children

In the survey, Belarusian parents were asked to select areas of employment (choosing no more than three options) in which they would like to see their sons and daughters. The vast majority (69.2 percent) chose the option “to run their own business, to be entrepreneurs/freelancers” as the desired future for their children. Among other popular areas of activity were entrepreneurships’ antipoles; work within law enforcement agencies (22.9 percent) and civil service (16.1 percent). Interestingly, the choice of a future related to entrepreneurship for a child does not significantly differ by the child’s gender (see Figure 2).

Figure 2. Preferred careers for children, by gender

Source: Calculations based on survey data. Note: The graph displays the answers to the question “What would you like your child to do in the future?” and is displayed as percent of respondents in the corresponding group.As one might expect, parents-entrepreneurs more often associate their children’s future with entrepreneurship (80.9 percent) compared to non-entrepreneurial respondents (65.7 percent) (see Figure 3). Similarly, female entrepreneur respondents more often than others prefer their daughters to engage in business in the future (80.9 percent). This level of approval of an entrepreneurial future for daughters may be related to an understanding of the self-realization opportunities that business provides for women, compared to other employment options. Working “for themselves” allows women to avoid barriers and limitations encountered when working for an employer and it may also be associated with schedule flexibility and an ability to improve work-life balance.

Figure 3. Preferred careers for children, by parents’ occupational background

Survey results showing Belarusian parents' preferences for their children's future careers, highlighting entrepreneurship.

Source: Calculations based on survey data. Note: The graph displays the answers to the question “What would you like your child to do in the future?” and is displayed as percent of respondents in the corresponding group.

Attitudes Towards Entrepreneurship

The attitude towards entrepreneurship was captured by asking parents to choose what they would tell their children if they expressed the intention to become entrepreneurs. Based on interviews and a pilot survey, multiple statements that carried positive, neutral, and negative connotations were presented in the questionnaire (see Figure 4).

Parents interested in their children becoming entrepreneurs in the future tend to foster a positive view of entrepreneurship through encouraging messages about business. From the results, parents tell their children that business is “dream, wealth, and freedom”, with more than half of the respondents who wish for their children to have an “entrepreneurial destiny” choosing this triad to convey that business is a positive path.

Among those who do not see their children in entrepreneurship, these categories also dominate in justifying the attractiveness of business. However, those parents are more cautious and tend to warn their children about the associated risks of uncertainty and instability.

Figure 4. Attitudes towards entrepreneurship

Survey results on entrepreneurship in Belarus: perspectives of parents on their children's future in business.

Source: Calculations based on the survey data. Note: The graph displays the answers to the question “Which statements best describe what you would tell a child if he/she expressed a willingness to become an entrepreneur?” and is displayed as percent of respondents in the respective group. Respondents were asked to select all applicable response options.

Overall, the selection of positive associations by most parents indicates a high level of support for children’s interest in entrepreneurship within families. By choosing the triad “dream, wealth and freedom”, parents emphasize priorities related to the formation of free individuals and see potential in their children for engaging in business in the future, despite the existence of, and appeal from, other career choices. Employment (regardless of ownership structure) is much less frequently considered as an appealing prospect for children’s future. The likely rationale is the dependent position of employees within the current sociopolitical context, which partially undermines the benefits of private-sector employment. Therefore, many respondents may perceive employment as “captivity” – in contrast to the freedom associated with entrepreneurship. Thus, the current generation of parents largely want their children to have minimal interactions with the state.

Conclusions

Despite the current challenging conditions for business in Belarus, many parents still see entrepreneurship as a pathway to independence and freedom for their children. The role of the family in nurturing entrepreneurial potential should not be underestimated in this context. The fact that many parents see entrepreneurship as a means of self-realization for their children indicates a sustained positive perception of business within the population, despite the recent years negative portrayal of entrepreneurs in official media outlets.

For many, business is associated with the positive triad of “dream, wealth, and freedom”. This is particularly true for the current generation of parents, whose worldviews were shaped during the relatively open periods of the late 1990s and early 2000s. For them, entrepreneurship represents a means for their children to achieve personal freedom and self-realization without having to leave the country.

However, there is a notable contrast between these aspirations and the reality of doing business in Belarus today – a divergence that could prove pivotal for the future of private business in the country. Entrepreneurship in Belarus has the potential to either become a chance for future generations to help develop the nation (“dreaming of entrepreneurship”) or, if suppressed further, a missed opportunity (“requiem for a dream”).

There is no guarantee that future generations of Belarusians will share the same positive attitude toward entrepreneurship and pro-democratic values as their parents, if they lack real opportunities to start and run businesses or public success stories. The “fork” in the future of entrepreneurship in Belarus has another critical dimension: if parents no longer see opportunities for self-realization within the country, they may consider leaving it. Following the 2020 political crisis, Belarus has seen significant emigration driven by the risks of domestic criminal prosecution and the search for safety abroad.

The main implications for the decision-makers concerned with a future stable, predictable and democratic Belarus, could thus be the following:

  1. Supporting entrepreneurship as a driver of democratic values: In a non-democratic environment, entrepreneurs are known to act as carriers and multipliers of pro-democratic values such as freedom, personal responsibility, and self-determination. (Audretsch & Moog, 2022; Marozau, 2023). The (still) positive attitudes to entrepreneurship, intergenerational transmission of entrepreneurial values, and overall survival of the Belarusian private should be perceived, and treated, as a foundation for counteracting (some of the) ongoing negative institutional developments.
  2. Transmitting pro-entrepreneurial values to future generations: With the same idea in mind, it is important to support families transmitting pro-entrepreneurial values to future generations by complementing their efforts through, e.g., education. This can be realized by offering additional training programs for children and adolescents, such as financial literacy schools, business clubs, and leadership schools.
  3. Advancing the role of female entrepreneurship: The increasing participation of women in entrepreneurship presents an opportunity to transfer values, particularly to daughters, and thereby preserving entrepreneurial capital and overcoming gender inequality issues in Belarus.

Acknowledgment

The study underlying this policy brief was made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). BEROC acknowledges support by Pyxera Global whose financial and technical assistance for INNOVATE is part of a USAID-funded activity to support the innovative-based economy and private sector growth in Belarus.

The contents of this brief are the sole responsibility of BEROC and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States government.

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

Democratic Backsliding and Electoral Autocracies: Research Shared at the 2023 FROMDEE Conference

Posted on December 4, 2023 | Policy Brief

20231203 Democratic Backsliding Image 021

On October 13th, 2023, the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) and the Forum for Research on Media and Democracy in Eastern Europe (FROMDEE) hosted an academic conference on “Democratic Backsliding and Electoral Autocracies”. This brief provides a short summary of the keynote lecture and research presentations featured at the conference.

The most recent report by the V-Dem Institute concludes that “72 percent of the world’s population […] live in autocracies by 2022” and “the level of democracy enjoyed by the average global citizen in 2022 is down to 1986 levels” (V-Dem Institute, 2023). In Europe, these declines have manifested in the previous Polish government undermining judicial independence, in tightened political repression in Belarus, and most prominently in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. But the rise of electoral autocracies and democratic backsliding are not confined to Europe – their strategies of propaganda, corruption, electoral manipulation, as well as attacks on judicial and media independence are a global phenomenon. The October 13th FROMDEE Conference gathered researchers from economics, law and political science to bring insight into why and where reversals are taking place, and what measures are needed to reverse the negative trend. This policy brief provides an overview of the research shared at the conference.

Populism and Autocracy – the Case of Russia

In the keynote lecture, Arturas Rozenas (New York University) focused on the roots of populism, challenging the common view of illiberal democracies as a mix between democracies and dictatorships. Rather, dictatorships evolve into populist dictatorships that then take one of two paths: either the path to democracy, or the path towards electoral autocracy, illiberal democracy, or totalitarianism. In this framework, populist dictatorships have historically made use of populist elements we recognize from modern times, i.e., democratic-seeming institutions misused for the ruler’s purposes.

In a populist dictatorship, Rozenas continued, there is a monopoly of power. Institutions such as elections and parliamentary representation, serve not to allocate power but to legitimise it. The transition from passive to active dictatorships coincided with a move away from the common notion of a king or similar leader deriving rightful power from God to rule the masses, to a reality built on the idea that the ruler’s legitimacy stems from the masses. This historic transformation should however not be interpreted as a transition to democracy. In fact, Rozenas showed that for most of recent history, the majority of elections and expansions of suffrage took place in dictatorships rather than in democracies. These seemingly populist institutions serve not only to legitimise governments, but also to coopt the population in a public display of the ruler’s strength. Rozenas argued, that in an active populist dictatorship, the ruler creates a setting which suppresses dissent and expectations of dissent, through institutionalised expressions of support (in the form of political participation, elections, large rallies etc.).

Turning to the Russian setting, the first thing to notice is the deep tradition of autocracy – from tsarism to Stalinism. In Russia, the words “society” and “the people” briefly blossomed during past revolutions or uprisings but have largely been absent in the Russian language and are once again on the decline under the rule of Putin. Further, the Russian population has time and again been exploited by its rulers during succession crises for displays of power and dominance. Examples of this are the mandatory elections held under Stalin two weeks after the invasion of the Baltic States in 1939 and more recently under Putin in the occupied territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in Ukraine in 2021. Such populist autocratic strategies are nothing new in Russia, concluded Rozenas – rather they derive from the internal logic of dictatorship that has played out throughout Russian history.

Continuing the notion of the “absent” Russian society, Olha Zadorozhna (Kozminski University) began her presentation by explaining that protests are infrequent in Russia and have surprisingly few attendees given the country’s large population. While there were mass protests in the run-up to the collapse of communism in the 1980’s and protests took place against corruption in 2017-2018, and in relation to the arrest of Alexey Navalny in 2021, protests in Russia are typically not motivated by an overarching ideology or broader political questions. Rallies in favor of authoritarianism and ethno-nationalism are a more common occurrence. Moreover, there are few indications that the invasion of Ukraine, sanctions and subsequent economic downturn have negatively affected the Russian population’s support for the regime. Still, literature has shown that war-related deaths can mobilize opposition against war participation (e.g., the U.S. participation in the Vietnam War). Considering this, Zadorozhna evaluates whether the deaths of Russian soldiers provoke a reaction among the Russian population. By combining social media data on fallen soldiers with protest activity for the first four months of the Russian invasion in 2022, the study find that casualties lead to an increase in protest activity, indicating that deaths can in fact mobilize public opposition in Russia.

Other populist strategies to ensure support for Putin in Russia relate to political participation and the judiciary. Nicholas James (University of Oxford) analysed electoral rule changes in the Russian Duma – from mixed member majoritarianism to proportional representation (PR) – by measuring their effect on floor participation. Applying a difference-in-differences framework, James found that deputies experiencing a change from PR included less words in their speeches following the switch (about 15-20 percent of an average speech). This effect should be understood in the political context of the ruling party’s (United Russia) increased influence during this time period (2010s). In fact, James concluded, the results point in the direction of the regime tampering with the Duma in an impromptu and reactionary manner with the overall goal of obtaining closer control and the appearance of support for the regime.

Yulia Khalikova’s (University of Hamburg) presentation gave further insight into how ostensibly democratic institutions can be exploited to make an authoritarian regime appear legitimate. In her work, Khalikova considers judicial references to international law that may be employed strategically, without necessarily adhering to the spirit or content of the law. Looking specifically at international law citations in 601 judgements made in the Russian Constitutional Court (RCC) between 2000 and 2021, Khalikova find evidence that the RCC has increasingly cited international courts when making judgements on topics related to politics and physical rights, indicating that state policy influences citation patterns. The change in citation patterns also points to the RCC currently using international law to support the regime and uphold its legitimacy, meaning that international law – adopted with the ambition of enhancing democratic values and ensuring human rights – is misused for undemocratic and repressive purposes.

Censorship and Propaganda

Information control is an important feature of autocratic regimes. Philine Widmer (ETH Zurich) considers the Chinese setting – where the regime controls the amount of foreign information available on the internet via a countrywide firewall. Research has shown that autocracies make use of censorship strategies to control their citizens, but these are associated with high reputational costs and can be overcome by tech-savvy citizens. Using a machine learning algorithm, Widmer first predicts a newspaper article’s alignment with the Chinese regime before comparing the placement of more/less aligned articles on news websites. Her results show that front-page news stories in Chinese newspapers are more aligned with the regime’s stance than other content. Front-page placement in turn matters for information uptake. Widmer ended the presentation by comparing the additional cost of finding less aligned articles to the technological costs required to access outside media (e.g. VPNs). For an autocracy to achieve its information control objectives, independent news may just need to be relatively harder to access. It does not need to make it impossible to access for all citizens.

Censorship is typically accompanied by, and complementary with, propaganda. Restricting other narratives allows autocratic regimes to spread their own. While propaganda is a common feature within autocracies, Jaakko Meriläinen’s (Stockholm School of Economics) presentation evaluated the effect of autocratic propaganda in a democratic setting.

Meriläinen’s study focuses on a rogue experiment in which some Finnish children in the 1970’s were taught history and social sciences using material from the Soviet Union – material which was in essence Soviet propaganda. By exploiting geographical and cohort variation, Meriläinen use a difference-in-differences approach to compare the 213 exposed children to children taught the regular Finnish curriculum. The long-term outcomes show that exposed children had lower incomes in adulthood, worked fewer months per year and were engaged in more left-leaning and publicly beneficial occupations (such as, nurses and firefighters).

Information and Accountability

The use of technological innovations to access otherwise restricted information was central to Arieda Muço’s (Central European University) presentation. She studies the spread of the Xerox photocopying machine in communist Hungary in the 1980’s – a setting characterised by limited freedom of speech and restrictions on the media. She reported that areas with early placement of Xerox machines are found to exhibit higher shares of pro-democratic voting. Muço ascribes these outcomes to the fact that the machines allowed for the spread of information and eased coordination of the opposition, suggesting that new technologies and information can act as key facilitators in the fall of autocratic regimes.

Providing citizens with information was also a key feature in Enrique Seira Bejarano’s (Michigan State University) presentation. He began by discussing two potentially related trends: in Latin America recent years have seen (i) increased levels of corruption and (ii) increased dissatisfaction with democracy among citizens. The number of corruption-related news articles have increased threefold in Spanish and doubled in English and the share of people perceiving corruption to be the greatest challenge to their country has doubled in the last decade. The study uses two empirical strategies to identify the effect of corruption on democratic values. Firstly, Seira Bejarano described an observational study, in which data on major corruption scandals were combined with Latinobarometer data on support for democracy. The authors find that corruption scandals increase corruption perceptions while decreasing stated support for democracy. Secondly, Seira Bejarano reported the results of a randomized controlled trial in which some respondents were shown videos of a politician accepting bribes. This had a negative effect on preferences for democracy and on trust more broadly. Both studies show that revelations of corruptions decrease the support for democracy, suggesting a potential tradeoff between the public’s belief in democratic institutions and increased transparency which is important for accountability but can also expose corruption.

Right-wing Populism

Yet another threat to democracy is the rise of right-wing populism – currently a reality in many well-established democracies across Europe. In Germany, the far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) enjoys around 21 percent of voters’ support according to recent polls. To understand their rise in popularity, Navid Sabet (Goethe University Frankfurt) builds on previous literature on cultural conflict as a driver for right-wing party support. The paper he presented examines the role of violent conflict in the form of terrorist acts. It evaluates whether acts of terror can alter the political landscape and shift support to the far-right. To avoid selection problems, the authors compare successful terror attacks to attacks that failed. Sabet reported that successful small-scale attacks (predominantly targeting migrants) increase AfD’s vote share by about 6 percentage points in state elections (in the time period 2013-2021). The acts of terror were found to increase voter turnout, by mobilizing otherwise idle voters, but also by gaining votes at the cost of other parties. Exploring the mechanisms behind these results, the authors study the language used by political parties and the way successful attacks were covered in the media. Relative to coverage of unsuccessful attacks, media coverage used a more negative tone, more words related to Islam and terror and fewer words related to right-wing populism. This suggests that media plays an important role in shaping the public’s response to acts of terror and that far right parties are able to exploit this dynamic.

Concluding Remarks

The 2023 FROMDEE Conference brought together academics from different fields to shed light on some of the main challenges to democracy today. In part, the research presented supported the prevailing narrative that democracies are backsliding in many parts of the world. However, by analysing how autocracies and populist leaders operate, the presenters also highlighted the vulnerability of dictatorships.

Arturas Rozenas cited the example of a rally in Bucharest in 1989, which was organised to display support for Ceauşescu’s regime and descended into an anti-government protest. Dictatorships can benefit by coopting the populist elements of democracy but, in doing so, they risk creating a vehicle for genuine democratic expression.

The audience learned about autocracies’ efforts to control the flow of information but also about citizens’ ability to circumvent restrictions whether in 1980s Hungary or present-day China. Several presentations focused on the extent of autocratic control in Russia but even in this setting, the death of soldiers in Ukraine motivates citizens to participate in protests.

Recent trends suggest that democratic institutions should not be taken for granted in any country. Societies can become more resilient to the threat of democratic backsliding, in part by better understanding how both democracies and autocracies operate and what makes them vulnerable. Researchers around the world are using innovative methods to expand our knowledge in this area, as reflected in the presentations at the 2023 FROMDEE Conference.

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023: Social Transfers and the Voters the Government is Counting On

Posted on October 9, 2023 | Policy Brief

20231009 Polish Parliamentary Elections Image 02

The heated election campaign preceding the October 15th election in Poland has focused on fundamental issues related to the rule of law, migration, media freedom, women’s and minority rights, climate policy as well as Poland’s role on the international arena. The election outcome will determine Poland’s role in the EU and as well as the country’s future relations with Ukraine. It will also be decisive for the direction of Polish politics and the foundations of socio-economic development for many years to come. Despite these issues, the primary worries for a substantial portion of Polish households concern the domestic challenges of increasing prices and material uncertainty. With this in mind, this Policy Brief summarizes the results of CenEA’s recent analysis, which demonstrates a clear pattern in the United Right government’s policy, that in the last four years has strongly favored older groups of the Polish population. In the 2019 elections financial support directed to families with children was a key factor in securing a second term in office for the governing coalition. It remains to be seen if the focus on older voters pays off in the same way on October 15th.

Introduction

The upcoming parliamentary elections on October 15th will close a very special term of the Polish Parliament, marked by the Covid-19 pandemic, a surge in prices of goods and services, as well as the full-scale, ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine and the tragic consequences associated with it. An evaluation of the second term of the United Right’s (Zjednoczona Prawica) government should, on the one hand, cover the most important decisions made in response to these crises. On the other hand, the last four years have also been a time of significant decisions with important medium- and long-term consequences, both directly for Polish households’ financial situation and more broadly for the economy at large and the country’s socio-economic development.

The heated election campaign has focused on the fundamental issues related to the rule of law, migration, media freedom, women’s and minority rights, climate policy as well as Poland’s role on the international arena. The upcoming vote is likely to be decisive in regard to Poland’s relations with partners in the EU, the role it will play in the EU and – as recent government declarations have demonstrated – the development of future relations with Ukraine. The result of the October elections will be pivotal also for the direction of Polish politics and the foundations of socio-economic development for many years to come. At the same time however, recent surveys have shown that the main concern for a significant part of the Polish society lies closer to home, driven by the challenges of rising prices of goods and services and related material uncertainty.

In light of this, this policy brief summarizes the tax and benefit policies directly affecting household finances, which were implemented in the first and second term of the United Right’s rule (i.e., 2015-2019 and 2019-2023). The brief draws upon a detailed analysis published recently in the CenEA Preelection Commentaries (Myck et al. 2023 a,b,c). The results show a notable shift in the government’s focus – while families with children were the main beneficiaries of the reforms implemented in the first term, the policies over the last four years have concentrated transfers and tax advantages to older generations. As we approach election day, it seems likely that the government will further try to mobilize support from this group of voters

The United Right’s Second Term: Tax and Benefit Reforms During High Inflation

In recent years, Polish households has, apart from two major crises (the Covid-19 pandemic and the complex consequences from the Russian invasion of Ukraine), faced one of the greatest price increases in the EU. During the closing term of Parliament, from January 2020 to July 2023, prices increased by 35.6 percent and have continued to grow at a rate significantly exceeding the inflation target set by the National Bank of Poland (2.5 percent +/- 1 percentage point per year). By the end of 2023 the combined inflation rate will reach 38.7 percent. Although average wages have also been rising (nominally by 41.7 percent from January 2023 to July 2023), wage growth has not kept up with the inflation for many workers. One needs to also bear in mind that a significant proportion of Polish households rely on income from transfers and state support. At the same time households’ material conditions have deteriorated as a result of a significant reduction in the real value of their savings.

In 2022 and 2023 the government introduced a number of temporary policies designed specifically to assist households facing higher energy and food prices. Throughout the final term in office, it also adopted several reforms which – as we show below – affected some groups more than others, reflecting a clear policy preference:

a) in January 2020 and May 2022 respectively, the government legislated an additional level of support addressed to retirees and disability pensioners. These so-called 13th and 14th pensions have raised the minimum level of pension benefits.

b) in January 2022 the government implemented a major overhaul of the income tax system (the so-called Polish Deal) which significantly influenced the tax burden on most taxpayers, strongly benefitting pension recipients.

c) throughout the term of Parliament, the government has kept the values of most social benefits frozen at their nominal level. This includes its flagship program – the universal 500+ parental benefit (500 PLN, roughly 110 EUR per child per month), introduced in 2016 – as well as means tested family benefits directed to poorer families with children. As a result, both the values as well as eligibility thresholds has fallen by nearly 40 percent.

The implications of these three policy areas are reported in Table 1 for the 2019-2023 term of Parliament and contrasted with benefits and costs from government policies implemented in the first term of Parliament (2015-2019). The results have been calculated using the SIMPL microsimulation model and are based on a representative sample of over 30 000 Polish households from the 2021 Household Budget Survey (for methodological details see Myck et al., 2015; 2023c). The applied method allows for singling out policy effects from other factors affecting household incomes.

Table 1 shows a clear difference in focus; from substantial benefits directed at families with children in 2015-2019 to policies targeted at pensioners, partly at the cost of families with children, in the second term. It is also worth noting that while government policy continued to increase household incomes, the resulting gains in disposable incomes in the second term have been much more modest.

Table 1. The impact of modelled policies in the tax and benefit system on household income in the two terms of the United Right’s government.

Source: CenEA – own calculations using the SIMPL model based on 2021 Household Budget Survey data (reweighted for simulation purposes and indexed to July 2023).
Notes: Simulations with respect to the system and price level from July 2023. Changes are presented in relation to the indexed system from 2015 for the first term of office of the United Right government and the indexed system from 2019 for the second term of office. *Including family allowance with supplements, care benefits, parental leave benefit, and one-off allowance for the birth of a child. The applied exchange rate is 4.6PLN=1EUR.

The contrast is also visible when the totals from Table 1 are divided and allocated to specific family types, as presented in Figure 1. On average lone parent families gained about 800 PLN (170 EUR) per month as a result of policies implemented in the 2015-2019 term, while they lost 160 PLN (35 EUR) in the second term. Married couples with children gained 950 PLN (205 EUR) and lost 259 PLN (55 EUR) in each term, respectively. In contrast to this, gains of pensioner families were modest during the first term, while the policies implemented in the second term imply gains of about 310 PLN (70 EUR) per month for single pensioners and 630 PLN (140 EUR) per month to pensioner couples. Gains and losses by family type resulting from policies implemented between 2019-2023 are shown in more detail in Figure 2. Over 85 percent of single pensioners have seen gains of more than 200 PLN (45 EUR) per month, and a similar proportion of pensioner couples gained over 400 PLN (90 EUR) per month. At the same time the majority of families with children, both among lone parent families and married couples, principally as a result of benefit freezes, saw their incomes fall in real terms. The values of the universal 500+ parental benefit will be indexed in January 2024, and the government has made this indexation an important element of the campaign. However, the indexation will not compensate the losses that families experienced in the last four years, a period with high inflation. It remains to be seen if a promise of higher transfers in the future will translate into political support, as seen in the 2019 elections (Gromadzki et al. 2022).

Figure 1. The impact of modelled policies in the tax and benefit system on household income in the two terms of the United Right’s government, by family types.

Source: CenEA – own calculations using the SIMPL microsimulation model based on 2021 Household Budget Survey data (reweighted for simulation purposes and indexed to July 2023).

Figure 2. Ranges of monthly benefits and losses resulting from the modelled policies introduced in the United Right government’s second term of office (2019-2023), by family type.

Source: CenEA – own calculations using the SIMPL microsimulation model based on 2021 Household Budget Survey data (reweighted for simulation purposes and indexed to July 2023).

Timing and Other Tricks: Securing the Votes of Older Generations

The so-called 13th and 14th pensions are paid once per year, in May and September respectively, to recipients of public pensions, at a value equivalent to a monthly minimum pension (approximately 360 EUR). While the first is a universal benefit, the latter has a withdrawal threshold and is thus targeted at lower income pensioners. In 2023 the government decided to increase the value of the 14th pension to about 580 EUR, with the benefits paid out to pensioners in September, the month before the election. This additional bonus came at the cost of about 7 billion PLN (1.6 billion EUR) – a budget which could have paid for two years of indexation of benefits targeted at low-income families with children or financed the payment of the indexed value of the universal 500+ parental benefit for nearly four months. The decision completes the picture of a clear preference for the older generation in regard to social policy in recent years and suggests a clear focus on this group of voters prior to the upcoming election.

The government has also taken a number of steps to facilitate electoral participation among voters in smaller communities by increasing the number of polling stations and making it obligatory for local administrations to finance transportation for older individuals with mobility limitations. The government is also mobilizing voters in smaller communities with turn-out competition initiatives. Additionally, some commentators have pointed out that the choice of election day – one day ahead of the so-called ‘Papal day’, devoted to the memory of John Paul II – is also non-accidental.

Conclusion

The analysis presented in the recent CenEA Preelection Commentaries and summarized in this brief indicates that in the area of reforms directly affecting household incomes, pensioners are the social group that benefited most from the United Right’s government policies in the 2019-2023 term of office. This is evident both from policies that have become a permanent feature of the Polish tax and benefit system, as well as from various one-off decisions. Taking into account other policies surrounding the approaching parliamentary election, it seems clear that the government is strongly counting on the support of older generations of voters on October 15th. As election day is approaching it becomes more and more evident though, that securing their vote may not suffice to win a third term in office. Numerous policy and corruption scandals, a significant departure from judicial independence and an extreme degree of governing party dominance in public media have come to the fore of public debate ahead of the vote. According to recent polls the final outcome is still uncertain and even small shifts in support might swing the future parliamentary majority. According to Gromadzki et al. (2022), financial support directed to families with children was a key factor for securing a second term in office for the United Right coalition four years ago. It remains to be seen if the policy focus on older voters pays off in the same way on October 15th.

Acknowledgement

The authors wish to acknowledge the support of the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) under the FROGEE and FROMDEE projects. FREE Policy Briefs contribute to the discussion on socio-economic development in the Central and Eastern Europe. For more information, please visit www.freepolicybriefs.com.

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

Insights and Research Shared at the 2023 FREE Network Retreat

Posted on October 3, 2023 | Policy Brief

FREE network retreat Image from the conference

The 2023 FREE Network Retreat, an annual face-to-face event for members of the FREE Network, gathered its representatives to share and exchange research ideas and to discuss its institutes’ respective work and joint efforts within the Network. An academic session highlighted multiple overarching areas of interest and opportunities for research collaboration and included a plenary session on topics ranging from theoretical underpinning of Vladimir Putin’s regime to climate change beliefs and to consumer behaviour in credit markets. A session addressing the respective institute’s work during the last year also demonstrated the importance and relevance of the FREE Network’s joint initiatives on gender, democracy and media, and climate change and environment: FROGEE, FROMDEE and FREECE. This brief gives a short outline of the plenary session and an overview of some further topics covered during the conference.  

The Academic Day

The Academic Day consisted partly of a plenary session and partly of an academic session. The academic session was outlined to demonstrate the wide spectrum of research interests within the network and to promote and highlight the opportunities for research collaboration. Designed as a series of poster sessions, each organized around a common research theme, it allowed for an exchange of ideas between presenting researchers and the audience while displaying the overlap of the various research interests across the institutes. At the same time, the poster session combined the broad range of topics within 10 overarching subjects (trade, gender, migration and education, public economics, energy, labor, political economy and development, macro, conflict, and theory and auctions).

The plenary session further illustrated the wide variety of topics the FREE Network researchers’ work on. During the plenary session, three distinguished presentations were held, summarized in what follows.

“Why Did Putin Invade Ukraine? – A Theory of Degenerate Autocracy”

Firstly, Konstantin Sonin, Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, gave a presentation of his working paper (with Georgy Egorov, Northwestern University) in which the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine is explained through a theoretical framework on dictators’ decision-making in degenerate autocracies.

Sonin outlined how the beliefs about Ukraine in Kremlin, prior to the invasion, were factually wrong. For example, Kremlin believed that Ukraine, despite plenty of facts pointing in the opposite direction, lacked a stable government and had an incapable army. Further, it was believed that the US and Europe wouldn’t care about Ukraine and that Russian troops would be welcomed as liberators – the latter exemplified by the fact that Russia sent police and not the army during the first phase of the invasion. He also stressed that the decision to invade Ukraine is likely to have disastrous consequences for Vladimir Putin, his regime, and for Russia as a whole. This is, however, not the first example of a disastrous decision made by a leader of an autocratic regime, leading up to the question: What explains such choices that should not rationally have been made? And how can leaders make them in highly institutionalized environments where they are surrounded by councils and advisors who are supposed to possess the best expertise?

The model presented by Sonin assumes a leader in such highly institutionalized environment that wishes to stay in power and whose decisions are based on input from subordinates. The subordinates differ in level of their expertise and the leader thus chooses the quality of advice that he receives through his choice of subordinates.  In turn, while giving advice to the leader, the subordinate considers two factors: the vulnerability of the leader and their own prospects should the leader fall. In equilibrium there is a tradeoff as competent subordinates are also less loyal (since a more competent person might know when to switch alliances and have better prospects if the regime changes).

The leader also has access to repression as an instrument. Repression decreases his changes to be overthrown but raises the stakes for a potential future power struggle, as a leader with a history of repression is more likely to be repressed by his successor.

This interaction creates a feedback loop. If a dictator chooses repression, he feels more endangered, and he then chooses a more loyal subordinate who is less likely to deceive him for personal gain under a potential new regime. However, this leads to the appointment of less competent subordinates whereafter the information that flows to the leader becomes less and less reliable – as illustrated by Kremlin’s beliefs about Ukraine prior to the war.

There are three types of paths in equilibrium, Sonin explained; 1. “stable autocracy”, with leaders altering in power and choosing peaceful paths without repressions 2. “degenerate autocracy” – where the incumbent and opponent first replace each other peacefully and then slide into the repression-based change of power (until one of them dies and the story repeats), and 3. “consecutive degenerate autocracy” – where each power struggle is followed by repression.

Concluding his presentation, Sonin highlighted that in a degenerate autocracy such as Russia, individual decisions by the leader are rarely crucial due to the high level of institutionalization. However, as shown by the model, the leader is inevitably faced with a situation where he is surrounded by incompetent loyalists feeding him bad intel and setting him up to make disastrous decisions – most recently displayed in Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

“Facing the Hard Truth: Evidence from Climate Change Ignorance”

Pamela Campa, Associate Professor at Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, gave the conference’s second presentation, which detailed her work (with Ferenc Szucz, Stockholm University) on climate change skepticism.

Campa opened her talk with the current paradox regarding climate change, where, in the scientific community there is a strong consensus about the existence of climate change, but in society at large, skepticism is largely prevalent. This can be exemplified by one quarter of the US population not believing in global warming in 2023, and Europeans not believing in the fact that humans are the main driver of climate change.

According to Campa, the key question to answer is therefore “Why does ignorance about climate change persist among the public – in spite of the overwhelming evidence?”. One possible explanation may be a deficit in comprehension; people simply don’t understand the complexity of climate change and thus follow biased media and/ or politicians more or less sponsored by lobbyists. However, research have shown scientifical literacy to be quite uncorrelated with climate change denial, contradicting the above explanation. The second hypothesis, and of focus in the study, instead revolve around the concept of information avoidance. To test the hypothesis that people actively avoid climate change information, the authors key in on coal mining communities in the US having been exposed to negative shocks in the form of layoffs. These communities are of interest given their strong sense of identity and the fact that they are directly affected by the green transition. Arguably, a layoff shock would negatively affect not only their economy, but also pose a threat to their perceived identity. Given the context, it can thus be assumed that these communities to a larger extent would avoid information on climate change and information post-shock to restore the threatened identity.

The authors consider US counties experiencing mass layoff (more than 30 percent of mining jobs lost between 2014 and 2017) as treated counties, finding that in these counties, learning about climate change is 30 to 40 percent lower than in counties having experienced no mass layoffs. To account for the fact that the layoff itself may cause changes in learning, the authors also consider an instrument variable analysis in which gas prices are exploited as instrument for the layoffs – once again displaying the fact that people in affected communities believe climate change to be caused by humans to a lesser extent, when compared to counties in which no mass layoffs had occurred.

Interestingly, when controlling with other industries with somewhat similar characteristics (such as metal mining), the drop in climate change learning disappears, feeding in the notion of “identity-based information avoidance”.

The lack of support for and consensus among the public of the ongoing climate change and its drivers might pose a threat for the green transition as well as reduce personal effort to reduce the carbon footprint, Campa concluded.

“Consumer Credit with Over-Optimistic Borrowers”

In the plenary session’s last presentation, Igor Livshits, Economic Advisor and Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, presented his working paper (with Florian Exler, University of Vienna, James MacGee, Bank of Canada and Michèle Tertilt, Mannheimer University) on consumer credit and borrower’s behaviour.

There has been much debate on whether and how to regulate consumer credit products to limit misuse of credit. In 2009/2010 several initiatives and regulations (such as the 2009 Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure Act) were introduced with the aim of protecting consumers and borrowers from arguments that sellers of credit products exploit lack of information and cognitive capacity of borrowers. There is however a lack of evaluation of such arguments and subsequent regulations, which Livshits explained to be the motivation behind the paper.

The paper differentiates between over-optimistic borrowers (behaviour borrowers) and rational borrowers (rationalists). While both types face the same risks, behaviour borrowers are more prone to shocks and are at the same time unaware of these worse risks (i.e., they believe they are rationalists). Focusing on these types of borrowers, the paper introduces a model in which the lenders endogenously price credit based on beliefs about the borrower type. Households decide whether to spend or save and if to file for bankruptcy in an environment in which they are faced with earning shocks and expense shocks.

In this structural model of unsecured lending and default, Livshits finds that behavioral borrowers’ “risky” behaviour negatively affects rationalists since both types are pooled together and, thus rationalists are overpaying to cover for the behaviour borrowers. A calibration of the model also suggests that behavioral borrowers borrow too much and file for bankruptcy too little and too late.

Livshits argued that the model does not provide evidence of the notion that borrowers need protection from lenders, but rather that borrowers need to be protected from themselves. In fact, had behaviour borrowers been made aware of the fact that they are overly optimistic about the actual state of their future incomes, they would borrow 15 percent less.

To address the increased risks behaviour borrowers take at the cost of rationalists, policies such as default made easier, taxation on borrowing, financial literacy efforts and score-dependent borrowing limits could all be considered. Such policies may lower debt and reduce bankruptcy filings but as they may also reduce welfare and exhibit scaling difficulties.

Updates from the Institutes

During the Retreat, the respective institutes shared the previous year’s work, and updates within the FREE Network’s three joint projects were also presented. These go under the acronyms of FROMDEE (Forum for Research on Media and Democracy in Eastern Europe), FREECE (Forum for Research on Eastern Europe; Climate and the Environment) and FROGEE (Forum for Research on Gender Economics in Eastern Europe), and address areas of great relevance in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. Researchers from all FREE Network institutes work on these topics, with the most recent policy paper written in coordination by SITE, KSE and CenEA (with expert Maja Bosnic, Niras International Consulting). The policy paper focuses on the gender dimension of the reconstruction of Ukraine – putting emphasis on the necessity of gender budgeting principles throughout the various parts of reconstruction.  An upcoming joint research paper will consider the effects of gasoline price increase on household income across the Network’s countries, written under the FREECE umbrella.

The three themes of gender, media and democracy, and environment and climate are not only purely research topics within the institutes. They also reflect developments and challenges that the institutes to a various extent face in the respective contexts in which they operate. The work focusing on the reconstruction of Ukraine is an excellent example of an area that encompasses all three.

Another example of the relevance of the three themes features prominently in one of the institutes’ most tangible contribution to their respective societies: their education programs. Nataliia Shapoval, Vice President for Policy Research at Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), emphasized how KSE has – amid Russia’s war on Ukraine – managed to greatly expand. Over the past year, KSE has launched 8 new bachelor’s and master’s programs, some of which are directly targeted at ensuring postwar reconstruction competence. On a similar note, Lev Lvovskiy, Academic Director at the Belarusian Research and Outreach Center (BEROC) mentioned the likelihood of next year being able to offer students a bachelor’s program in economics and several business courses in Vilnius – BEROC’S new location. BEROC’s effort in providing quality education in economics to Belarus’ exile youth is considered a fundamental investment in the future of the country – providing a competent leading class capable of installing democracy and fair elections in Belarus once the current regime is gone. The emphasis on education was further highlighted by Salome Gelashvili, Practice Head, Agriculture & rural policy at the International School of Economics Policy Institute (ISET-PI) who not only mentioned the opening of a master’s program in Finance at ISET but also the fact that an increasing number of students who’ve recently graduated from PhD’s abroad are now returning to Georgia. Such investments into education are necessary to counter Russian propaganda in the region all three agreed, emphasizing the need to continually stem Russia’s negative influence in the region. This investment into education is also important to hinder countries from sliding away from democratic values – realized in Belarus and threatening in Georgia.

To further delve into the issues of democratic backsliding, a tendency that has been recently observed not only in the region but also more widely across the globe, FROMDEE will organize an academic conference in Stockholm on October 13th, 2023.

Concluding Remarks

The 2023 FREE Network Retreat provided a great opportunity for the Networks’ participants to jointly take part of new research and to share experiences, opportunities, and knowledge amongst each other. The Retreat also served as reminder of the importance of continuously supporting economic and democratic development, through research, policy work, and networking, in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.

List of Presenters

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

Democracy in the Eye of the Beholder?

Posted on May 29, 2023 | Policy Brief

20230529 Democracy in the Eye of the Beholder Image 01

There is growing concern that democratic institutions in Eastern Europe are fragile. This brief compares two perspectives on the state of democracy: expert assessments and surveys of the general population. We show that while experts’ perception of some countries’ institutions has worsened in recent years, voters are increasingly satisfied with their own democracies. This trend is broad-based, encompassing almost all new EU member states and all age groups. We provide evidence that over time, survey respondents’ assessment of democracy has become more closely tied to the outcome of elections rather than actual institutional change. Where governments have imposed restrictions on media freedom or judicial independence, their supporters continue to report high levels of satisfaction with the way democracy works.

“Across the world, democracy is backsliding”

UN’s Secretary-General António Guterres, 2022

In recent years, the prevailing narrative around democracy in Eastern Europe has been negative. The reform momentum that propelled countries towards EU membership has not been sustained after accession. Discussions of global democratic backsliding frequently cite countries from the region as examples (Grillo and Prato, 2023; Chiopris et al., 2021; Mechkova et al., 2017). Following restrictions on judicial independence and media freedom, some new EU members have seen their ratings slide on indices that measure the quality of democratic institutions based on expert opinions. This brief contrasts these expert assessments with a different perspective on the state of democracy: that of the voters themselves.

Data from Eurobarometer surveys show that satisfaction with ‘the way democracy works in our country’ has been increasing in the new EU member states. This upward trend is visible for all age groups and in almost all countries – including those where experts’ assessment of democracy has worsened. We document patterns in the data that may help to explain this divergence. Survey responses increasingly reflect an instrumentalist view of democracy; respondents who are aligned politically with the winning party are more likely to feel that democracy is working well. This trend can be observed across the EU, but it is most pronounced in the new EU member states where the governing parties are right-of-centre.

Perceptions of Democracy

Expert Assessments

The quality of democracy is hard to measure. A range of indices classify countries by regime type or provide numerical ratings of institutional quality (the Polity, V-Dem, and Freedom House measures are among the most prominent). These indices have somewhat different objectives and methodologies, but they all rely on subjective judgements by expert coders.

Some academic research casts doubt on the prevailing narrative of a global phenomenon of democratic backsliding. For instance, Treisman (2023) and Lueders and Lust (2018) show that there is little consensus across indices, both in terms of individual countries and the global trend. A recent paper by Little and Meng (2023) contrasts subjective indices with more objective indicators of democratic health (e.g. the rate at which incumbents lose elections). The authors find no evidence for global democratic backsliding using the objective measures and suggest that the pessimistic narratives around democracy may have biased coders’ assessment.

There is less disagreement about the development of democracy in Eastern Europe. Treisman (2023) cites Hungary as the only example of a country that has recently been downgraded both from the status of “liberal democracy” by V-Dem and “free state“ by Freedom House. Little and Meng (2023) highlight three cases where both objective and subjective measures indicate backsliding: Hungary and Poland (as well as Venezuela). Further, Becker (2019) shows that downgrades to V-Dem democracy scores in Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Romania are relatively broad-based, driven by declines across multiple sub-categories including freedom of expression and constraints on the executive.

Surveys of Public Opinion

We use individual-level data from the Eurobarometer – a survey of public opinion in the EU Member States and candidate countries conducted by the European Commission. The surveys are conducted at an approximately monthly frequency and comprise of a representative sample (about 1000 face-to-face interviews) for each state. We combine data from 42 surveys, spanning 20 years (2002 to 2022), with a total of 1.3 million respondents. The main question we are interested in is: “On the whole are you very satisfied, rather satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied with the way democracy works in [our country]?”

At the beginning of the sample period in 2002, around a third of respondents in Eastern European EU countries were satisfied with their respective democracies compared to close to twice as many respondents in Western Europe (Figure 1). Over the past 20 years, the share of Eastern Europeans satisfied with their democracy has grown to around 50 percent, narrowing the gap with Western Europe. Figure 2 shows that this pattern is broad based across age groups. All cohorts of Eastern Europeans are more satisfied with democracy than earlier generations and among the youngest respondents, satisfaction is almost as high as in Western Europe.

Figure 1. Satisfaction with Democracy vs V-Dem Score.

Source: Eurobarometer, V-Dem and authors’ calculations.

Figure 2. Satisfaction with Democracy by Age Group.

Notes: Each point shows the sample mean for a single year cohort. 95 percent confidence intervals in grey.
Source: Eurobarometer, authors’ calculations.

Figure 1 also shows a stark divergence in expert assessment of the state of democracy in Eastern Europe compared to public opinion in the same countries. While the V-Dem democracy scores for Eastern Europe have declined rapidly since the mid-2010s, average satisfaction with the own country’s democracy has increased. A much smaller gap between these two measures has also started to open up in Western Europe over the past couple of years.

In Figure 3, we show the same patterns of satisfaction with democracy and expert opinions for individual countries. Satisfaction with one’s own democracy has increased in almost all Eastern European countries, including in Poland and Hungary which at the same time showed the largest declines in democracy scores.

Figure 3. Satisfaction with Democracy vs V-Dem Score by Country.

Source: Eurobarometer, V-Dem and authors’ calculations.

This divergence in individual survey responses and expert assessments is not altogether surprising. First, the Eurobarometer surveys a sample of the population in each country, while V-Dem (and most other similar democracy indices) relies on country experts. Another likely explanation for the difference is the interpretation of the question. Democracy ratings tend to emphasise institutional aspects of a democracy, for instance, the V-Dem liberal democracy index is designed to capture rule of law and checks on executive power (see, e.g., Becker, 2019). In contrast, the survey responses are likely to reflect both satisfaction with the state of democracy in a country, as well as the outcomes of that democracy.

Satisfaction with Democracy and Political Alignment

In this section, we investigate whether stated satisfaction with democracy depends on the outcomes of elections and the political ideology of the respondents. A common way of measuring political ideology is the placement on a right-left scale, where the right favours a free-market economy and traditional values while the left favours economic redistribution and socially progressive policies. We compare the right-left placement of each country’s governing party as coded by the Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES), with the self-identified right-left placement of Eurobarometer respondents. We calculate the ideological distance from the government as the absolute difference between these two scores.

Figure 4. Relationship Between Ideological Distance from Government and Satisfaction with Democracy.

Source: Eurobarometer, Döring, Huber and Manow (2022) and authors’ calculations.
Notes: Each point shows the coefficient from a separate regression of satisfaction with democracy on ideological distance from government, age, gender, year fixed effects and country fixed effects. 95 percent confidence intervals in grey. Coefficient estimates for Eastern and Western EU overlap on the chart for 2019 and 2020.

We find that people are on average less satisfied with their country’s democracy when they are ideologically further from the parties in government (Figure 4). This is consistent with prior evidence (Anderson and Guillory, 1997; Ezrow and Xezonakis, 2011). The alignment effect has become stronger over time – even when taking into account average satisfaction levels for each country and demographic characteristics of the respondents, such as their age and gender. In the past three years, political alignment with the government has become a major factor in explaining satisfaction with democracy, especially in Eastern Europe. Svolik (2019) suggests that voters trade off democratic principles and partisan interests. As political polarisation increases, voters become more willing to accept a government that undermines democratic institutions, as long as it is on ‘their side’ ideologically.

Figure 5. Satisfaction with Democracy and Political Ideology. Western Europe in the Left Panel and Eastern Europe in the Right Panel.

Source: Eurobarometer, Döring, Huber and Manow (2022) and authors’ calculations.
Notes: Respondents with the most left-leaning ideology are at the extreme left of the x-axis, those with the most right-leaning ideology are at the extreme right. The sample covers the period 2002 to 2022 and excludes observations where the government is coded as centrist (scores of 5-6 in the CHES data). 95 percent confidence intervals in grey.

In Figure 5, we break down the effect of political alignment on satisfaction with democracy according to individuals’ political leanings. On the x-axis is the respondents’ left-right placement and on the y-axis there are two series of dots showing satisfaction with democracy depending on whether the government is left of centre (lighter coloured dots) or right of centre (darker coloured dots). As before, being politically aligned with the government increases satisfaction, that is, to the left of the chart, the lighter coloured dots are placed higher than the darker coloured dots and vice versa for the right of the chart. The further from centre a person’s political leanings, the less satisfied they are with a government of the opposite ideology. There is also some evidence of asymmetry across the political spectrum in Eastern Europe, with respondents on the political right reporting much higher levels of satisfaction with right-wing governments compared to voters on the left under a left-wing government.

Conclusion

Over the past decade, there has been increasing concern over democratic backsliding in some of the Eastern European countries that are members of the EU. This is reflected in commonly used democracy indices whose country experts note the worrying trends in countries’ institutions – such as the reduction of freedom of expression, the strengthening of rule of law and constraints on the executive, all hallmarks of a liberal democracy. In this policy brief, we investigate whether this erosion of institutional safeguards affects people’s stated satisfaction with democracy in one’s respective country. We find a broad-based increase in satisfaction with democracy in the Eastern European EU countries, including in the countries that have seen some of the largest declines in liberal democracy ratings. We show that stated satisfaction with democracy reflects less the institutional changes in countries, but more the outcome of democratic elections. Voters who are politically aligned with their government are systematically more likely to report that they are satisfied with the state of democracy in their country. And this effect has become stronger in the most recent years, particularly in the Eastern European EU countries. We also find that this effect is not symmetric across the political spectrum. In the Eastern European EU countries, respondents on the political right are more satisfied with right-wing governments than those on the left are with left-wing governments.

The descriptive patterns outlined in this policy brief illustrate a worrying disconnect in the minds of many voters between institutions and outcomes of the democratic process. The threat of democratic backsliding in Europe and across the globe is predominantly not due to electoral democracies being replaced by autocratic regimes. Rather, genuinely popular (and often populist) governments are democratically elected and, once in power, proceed to undermine and dismantle liberal democratic institutions, such as a free press, an independent judiciary, and a fair electoral system. This process in turn makes it more difficult for opposition parties to win future elections, further cementing the power of the rulers of these illiberal democracies. While the electorate might support these governments now, voters need to be aware that these liberal institutions are designed to safeguard their democratic future.

References

  • Anderson, C. J. and Guillory, C. A. (1997). Political institutions and satisfaction with democracy: A cross-national analysis of consensus and majoritarian systems. American Political Science Review, 91(1), pp.66-81.
  • Becker, T. (2019). Liberal Democracy in Transition – The First 30 Years. FREE Policy Brief.
  • Chiopris, C., Nalepa, M. and Vanberg, G. (2021). A wolf in sheep’s clothing: Citizen uncertainty and democratic backsliding. Working Paper.
  • Döring, H., Huber, C. and Manow, P. (2022). ParlGov 2022 Release. Harvard Dataverse. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/UKILBE
  • Eurobarometer (multiple waves: 2002-2022), European Commission. Brussels
  • Ezrow, L. and Xezonakis, G. (2011). Citizen satisfaction with democracy and parties’ policy offerings. Comparative Political Studies, 44(9), pp.1152-1178.
  • Grillo, E. and Prato, C. (2023). Reference points and democratic backsliding. American Journal of Political Science, 67(1), pp.71-88.
  • Little, A. and Meng, A. (2023). Subjective and Objective Measurement of Democratic Backsliding. Available at SSRN 4327307.
  • Lueders, H. and Lust, E. (2018). Multiple measurements, elusive agreement, and unstable outcomes in the study of regime change. The Journal of Politics, 80(2), pp.736-741.
  • Mechkova, V., Luhrmann, A. and Lindberg, S. I. (2017). How much democratic backsliding?. Journal of. Democracy, 28, pp.162-169.
  • Svolik, M. W. (2019). Polarization versus democracy. Journal of Democracy, 30(3), pp.20-32.
  • Treisman, D. (2023). How great is the current danger to democracy? assessing the risk with historical data. Comparative Political Studies, https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140231168363.

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

European Democracy Through the Lens of Party Manifestos

Posted on May 1, 2023 | Policy Brief

A group of flags representing European countries, displayed on flagpoles with a clear blue sky in the background representing European democracy

The subjects of political discourse are important but hard to quantify. This brief uses data from 30 years of party manifestos to study how the dominant topics in politics have evolved across Europe. Transition countries have seen the most significant shift in the content of political discourse. In the early 1990s, party manifestos in Eastern Europe focused on a distinct set of topics related to transition; by recent elections they had converged to those in Western Europe, with a heavy emphasis on the welfare state, education, infrastructure and technology. Political discourse can change rapidly in times of crisis as shown by the example of Ukraine.

“It’s the economy, stupid!”

James Carville, Bill Clinton’s strategist for the 1992 election.

The dominant topics in politics are not always as apparent as when Bill Clinton was elected US president in the midst of a recession. While it is easy to track winners across election cycles, it is much harder to know what got them elected and what they will do (or at least, promise to do) once in power. The key issues and topics that political parties and candidates talk about form as important a part in our democracies as vote shares.

In this brief, we use data collected by the Manifesto Project (Lehmann et al., 2022) to describe the development of political discourse across Europe, with a particular focus on the differences and similarities between western European countries and transition economies in Eastern Europe.

Political Manifestos as Data

In most countries, voters mainly participate in the democratic process by voting for candidates put forward by political parties. Political parties advertise themselves to voters and distinguish themselves from each other by issuing party programmes or party manifestos where they lay down their ideological and policy positions.

The Manifesto Project provides a publicly available dataset on parties’ policy platforms. The data are based on the manifestos of parties that have won at least one (Western Europe) or two seats (transition countries) in a national election. Coders manually analyse the content of the manifestos and provide the percentage of each party’s manifesto that falls into one of 56 content categories. These content categories summarise a party’s policy position on given issues, for instance, whether they favour environmental protection or an expansion of the welfare state or oppose protectionism or multiculturalism.

The Manifesto Project is an example of “text as data“. Quantitative analysis based on text is becoming increasingly important across the social sciences (Gentzkow et al., 2019) but it is particularly useful in political economy and political science given that “language is the medium of politics“ and objective numerical data are often limited (Grimmer and Stewart, 2013). Unlike many recent approaches which process data using automated text analysis tools, the Manifesto Project relies on the judgement of coders from over 50 countries who read the original text. The resultant dataset has limitations: the subjective choices made by individual coders, the to-some-extent arbitrary determination of content categories to summarise the most relevant issues across different contexts and time periods and the difficulty of imposing consistent classifications for texts written in over 40 languages. Despite these caveats, it is a unique resource for analysing the evolution of countries’ political discourse over time and across countries.

Key Issues in Political Discourse

Figure 1 summarises, through content categories, the policy positions of parliaments in Western Europe and transition countries at two points in time: the early 1990s (around the time of the first democratic elections in most transition countries) and after the latest election. We measure the importance of a policy position in a country’s parliament by weighting the importance of the relevant content category in each party’s manifesto by that party’s vote share. Over time, our measure of a policy position’s importance in political discourse may increase or decline for two reasons. First, parties may change the extent to which they emphasise a given position in their manifestos. For example, parties across the political spectrum are likely to have increased references to healthcare in their manifestos during election campaigns held during the Covid-19 pandemic. Second, as voters’ preferences shift, parties that gain support will see their issues receive greater weight in the aggregate measure relative to parties that lose vote shares. For example, if the pandemic shifted voters’ preferences towards a more comprehensive welfare system, voters could respond by voting for parties which discuss the expansion of the welfare state in their manifestos.

Figure 1. Policy positions of parties in parliament.

Source: The Manifesto Project and authors’ calculations.
Notes: This chart shows word clouds of the main topics that feature in the manifestos of political parties in parliament, weighted by each party’s vote share and averaged across countries within a region. Panels a and b are based on the first election after 1990 (and before 1995) and Panels c and d are based on the latest election (after 2015) in the sample. Western Europe includes Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Transition economies include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine. Not all countries are represented in both periods.

Some striking patterns emerge. While the policy priorities of Western European parliaments remain relatively stable over the past 30 years, those of transition countries have changed markedly. During the transition period, many parties focused on the political and economic aspects of transition. Support for democracy, freedom and human rights, as well as the free market economy, featured heavily in the manifestos of parties that formed the first democratic parliaments. Over time, policy priorities in transition countries have become more similar to those of their western neighbours, and issues such as the expansion of the welfare state, the provision of education, and the importance of technology and infrastructure, have come to the fore in all countries.

Nevertheless, some differences still remain. For instance, environmental protection is one of the most important topics in western European parliaments, though its importance has declined over time. In transition countries, the environment is slowly becoming more important, but even in the latest elections it ranked at only number 16 out of 56 issues. In contrast, support for the “national way of life” was and continues to be a prominent part of the political discourse in transition economies and it is also becoming more mainstream in the Western European countries.

Political corruption and governmental and administrative efficiency have become relatively more important issues in the parliaments of transition countries, both over time and relative to their western neighbours. Meanwhile, parties in Western Europe are devoting more of their manifesto to calls for equality and social justice.

A Closer Look at Ukraine

A country’s parliament’s policy platform can change suddenly in response to shocks. Figure 2 shows the big topic groups in the manifestos of political parties in the Ukrainian parliament from 1998 to 2019. The parliamentary election in October 2014 closely followed the Euromaidan Revolution, the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the start of the Donbas war. Compared to the previous elections, external relations became a major issue in the Ukrainian parliament, driven in particular by increased mentions of the military and the relationship with the EU. Party manifestos heavily featured appeals to Ukrainian nationhood, national solidarity, and unity (as evidenced by the increasing importance of the content category “Fabric of Society”). The trend of increasing attention to freedom and democracy also continued in this election cycle. In contrast, the previously most important issues in elections (welfare and quality of life) received much less attention in parliament at times of political upheaval and military conflict.

Figure 2. Topics in Ukrainian elections.

Source: The Manifesto Project and authors’ calculations.
Notes: This chart shows the percentage of mentions of topic groups in the manifestos of political parties in the Ukrainian parliament from 1998 to 2019, weighted by each party’s vote share.

Distribution of Political Ideology

While the previous section discussed the main policy issues in parliament, we now turn our focus to the ideology of individual political parties that make up a country’s parliament. A commonly used summary measure of political ideology is a left-right scale (RILE), where left positions favour peace, state intervention in the economy and the expansion of the welfare state and right positions support security, traditional values and the free market economy. The Manifesto Project provides a RILE value for each party at each election (based on Laver and Budge, 1992), which is calculated by subtracting the share of a party’s manifesto devoted to left-leaning policy issues, for instance support for the welfare state, from right-leaning content, such as support for the free market economy. Condensing the complexity of party programmes into a one-dimensional measure based on fixed definitions has advantages and drawbacks. The RILE makes it possible to compare diverse political parties that campaign on different issues (for instance ecological parties compared to nationalist parties) and measure how the same party’s policy stance may have shifted over time. As the definition of left- and right-leaning issues were based on influential political theories around the 1900s, some scholars argue that this measure has become less appropriate to empirically differentiate between modern political parties, particularly in transition countries (see, e.g., Mölder, 2016). In particular, Tavits and Letki (2009) show that during the transition process many leftist parties in Eastern Europe pursued economically right-wing policies and Vachudova (2008) argues that right-wing parties in the region often appealed to a nationalist discourse.

With these caveats in mind, Figure 3 shows the distribution of all parties in parliament in the Manifesto Project database on the RILE scale, weighted by their respective vote shares. In Western Europe in the 1990s, the chart shows the prominence of both centre-left and centre-right parties, as well as smaller parties both on the more extreme left and right. In contrast, the parties in parliament in transition economies at the time were more concentrated in the centre (and slightly towards the right). Fast forward 30 years and the distribution of political ideology has changed in both the east and the west. In Western Europe, the majority of parliamentarians are now situated slightly right of centre with little mass in the more extreme tails. In contrast, in the former transition countries, there is evidence of political polarisation with party representation moving both to the left and the right on the ideological spectrum and relatively few parliamentarians occupying the centre.

Figure 3. Left-right position of parties in parliament.

Source: The Manifesto Project and authors’ calculations.
Notes: This chart shows the density of parties in parliament on the left-right policy scale (RILE), weighted by each party’s vote share within their country. The dashed lines are based on the first election after 1990 (and before 1995) and the solid lines are based on the latest election (after 2015) in the sample. Western Europe includes Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Transition economies include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine. Not all countries are represented in both periods.

Conclusion

What are the main topics of political discourse? Are they different across countries? Do they change over time? While there is no perfect way to quantify and track political discourse over time, this brief uses data from parties’ manifestos provided by the Manifesto Project to illustrate some broad trends across Europe over the past 30 years.

We document two kinds of changes in the subject matter of party manifestos. First, there are gradual shifts in content that reflect underlying developments in society. As democracies have matured in Eastern Europe, the content of their parties’ manifestos has evolved away from the immediate concerns of economic and political transition and converged to those of Western European parties. Second, more abrupt shifts can arise when countries experience crises or institutional upheaval. Over the past decade Ukrainians have lived through a revolution, the Donbas war, and the ongoing Russian invasion. Most of the parties that represent them in parliament are new, and the issues that feature prominently in their manifestos are now markedly different from those before the Euromaidan revolution.

Manifestos are not just about substance but also about ideology. Using the Manifesto Project’s classification of parties on a left-right scale, we show how the distribution of parties has evolved in Western Europe and transition countries. By this measure, political polarisation has been increasing in transition countries where centrist positions are less well represented than in Western European parliaments.

References

  • Gentzkow, Matthew, Bryan Kelly, and Matt Taddy. (2019). “Text as data”, Journal of Economic Literature 57, no. 3: 535-74.
  • Grimmer, J., and Stewart, B. (2013). “Text as data: The promise and pitfalls of automatic content analysis methods for political texts”. Political analysis 21, no. 3: 267-297.
  • Lehmann, P., Burst, T., Matthieß, T., Regel, S., Volkens, A., Weßels, B. and Zehnter, L. (2022) The Manifesto Data Collection. Manifesto Project (MRG / CMP / MARPOR). Version 2022a. Berlin: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB). https://doi.org/10.25522/manifesto.mpds.2022a
  • Laver, M. and Budge, I. (eds.). (1992). Party Policy and Government Coalitions, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire: The MacMillan Press.
  • Mölder, M. (2016). The validity of the RILE left–right index as a measure of party policy. Party Politics, 22(1), 37–48. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068813509525
  • Tavits, M. and Letki, N. (2009). When Left Is Right: Party Ideology and Policy in Post-Communist Europe. American Political Science Review, 103(4), 555-569. doi:10.1017/S0003055409990220
  • Vachudova, M. A. (2008). Centre—Right Parties and Political Outcomes in East Central Europe. Party Politics, 14(4), 387–405. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068808090252

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.