Tag: Russian Oil Exports
Trump’s Sanctions Hit Russia’s Oil Giants: Maria Perrotta Berlin Discusses the Impact
In a new Associated Press (AP) report, the United States and European Union have jointly announced fresh sanctions on Russia’s leading oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil. The measures aim to cut revenue funding for Moscow’s war in Ukraine and signal the Trump administration’s first major sanctions package on Russian oil since returning to office.
This move underscores Washington’s tougher stance toward the Kremlin’s war economy and its global oil trade network.
Sanctions Are Powerful, But Often Come Too Late
“The sanctions are large and powerful, but they have always come a little too late,” said Maria Perrotta Berlin, Assistant Professor at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE).
Perrotta Berlin explained that Russia’s shadow fleet and complex web of traders have helped it adapt to earlier restrictions. However, she noted that the new measures, which threaten secondary sanctions on Indian and Chinese refiners, could have a more immediate chilling effect on Russian oil exports.
Sanctions Pressure on Putin and Russia’s Oil Strategy
According to the AP article, the sanctions aim to pressure President Vladimir Putin to consider President Donald Trump’s proposal for an “immediate ceasefire.” Analysts caution that while the sanctions won’t cripple Russia’s economy overnight, they could increase long-term costs, reduce oil revenues, and expose vulnerabilities in Moscow’s energy strategy. In parallel, the European Union’s ban on Russian LNG imports and the sanctioning of 117 additional tankers amplify the economic pressure on Russia’s fossil fuel sector.
To read Maria Perrotta Berlin’s full commentary and detailed analysis on how Trump’s sanctions are reshaping Russia’s oil policy, see the full AP article on the Associated Press website.
Further Reading: Sanctions, Energy, and Russia’s War Economy
Energy exports remain the backbone of Russia’s economy and a tool of geopolitical leverage. Sanctions targeting this sector aim to reduce state revenue and limit Moscow’s influence abroad.
- Explore the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base to access the latest research on energy sanctions against Russia.
- Review the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures to understand how both sides have adapted since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
For more expert insights and economic analysis, visit the SITE website.
Torbjörn Becker: Drone Strikes Undermine Russia’s War-Funding Revenues
A surge of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries has triggered widespread gasoline shortages across the country. These attacks directly threaten one of Russia’s main sources of income, its energy sector.
Drone Strikes Expose Russia’s Dependence on Energy Revenues
In a report by Finland’s public broadcaster YLE, experts analyzed the coordinated assaults and their mounting economic consequences. At least 14 of Russia’s 38 refineries have been hit, disrupting roughly 20 percent of the nation’s refining capacity. The campaign represents a new stage in Ukraine’s efforts to erode Russia’s revenue base and weaken its wartime economy.
“They remind the Russian people that a war is ongoing in Ukraine, but they also strike at Russian revenues. Oil and gas income is absolutely essential for financing Russia’s offensive war against Ukraine,” said Torbjörn Becker, Director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE).
Torbjörn Becker further emphasized that economic pressure has become a central pillar of Ukraine’s broader defense strategy.
Economic Fallout Deepens as Russia Faces Fuel Shortages and Export Bans
The YLE article also explored the economic and political fallout within Russia. Gasoline shortages have been reported in at least 21 regions, prompting authorities to extend export bans and enforce rationing. Analysts cautioned that prolonged attacks could force refinery closures, limit exports, and damage Russia’s image as a reliable energy supplier. Becker added that the strikes could send shockwaves through global energy markets, increasing volatility and uncertainty.
To read the full YLE report and Torbjörn Becker’s full commentary, visit the complete article. For additional expert insights from SITE, explore the institute’s official webpage.
Further Reading
Reducing Russia’s financial capacity to sustain its unjust war against Ukraine requires a comprehensive, multi-layered approach. Explore the latest research on sanctions against Russia in the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base. Learn about the major sanction packages introduced by Western allies following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as the corresponding countermeasures, by visiting the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Counteractions.
To read more policy briefs on sanctions and the Russian economy, visit the FREE Network website.
Russian Oil Revenues Dip to $12.6 Billion as Sanctions Bite
In May 2025, Russian oil export revenues fell by $0.4 billion to $12.6 billion due to lower prices and export volumes. Seaborne oil shipments declined, with oil products dropping sharply. The shadow fleet’s role in exports grew, raising environmental and enforcement concerns. The findings come from the latest Russian Oil Tracker by the KSE Institute, authored by Borys Dodonov, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Anatolii Kravtsev, Yuliia Pavytska, and Nataliia Shapoval.
Falling Oil Exports Amid Sanctions Pressure
Global oil prices remained weak in May, keeping all Russian crude grades within the G7/EU price cap. Export volumes slipped, with overall seaborne shipments down 3.1% month-on-month. Reliance on Western-insured tankers dropped to 42%, while older, uninsured “shadow fleet” tankers carried most crude exports. India remained Russia’s largest crude buyer, taking 51% of shipments, while Turkey led in oil product imports.
Tracking Sanctions Evasion and Enforcement
KSE Institute data shows that 165 Russian-affiliated tankers operated in May without international insurance, 89% of them over 15 years old. Many had previously been sanctioned, yet enforcement gaps persist. Between March and May, 135 sanctioned vessels were still loaded at Russian ports. The US and EU maintain stricter compliance, while UK and Canadian enforcement remains weaker.
Key Research Findings
- Russian oil revenues fell to $12.6 billion in May 2025, the second-lowest since the invasion.
- Oil product exports dropped 7% month-on-month, with Pacific ports seeing a 21.9% collapse.
- Shadow fleet tankers carried 82% of crude exports, most over 15 years old.
- In a strict sanctions scenario, annual revenues could drop to $111 billion in 2025.
Economic and Policy Implications
If sanctions enforcement remains weak, Russia could still earn $163 billion from oil in 2025. Stronger enforcement and tighter price caps could sharply cut revenues, limiting war financing. The growing shadow fleet also raises environmental risks due to poor maintenance and flag evasion. Future monitoring will focus on how sanctions coalitions adapt to these tactics.
Meet the Researchers
- Borys Dodonov: KSE Institute
- Benjamin Hilgenstock: KSE Institute
- Anatolii Kravtsev: KSE Institute
- Yuliia Pavytska: KSE Institute
- Nataliia Shapoval: KSE Institute
Read the Full Report
Explore the complete findings and detailed charts in the Russian Oil Tracker on the KSE Institute’s website.