KSE Institute: Further Weakening of Russian Macroeconomic Stability Will Require Additional Measures
The KSE Institute has recently released its March Russia Chartbook titled “Further Weakening of Russian Macroeconomic Stability Will Require Additional Measures.” The chartbook examines Russia’s current economic landscape, highlighting key trends and challenges. Notably, Russia’s foreign trade has stabilized at a new post-sanctions baseline, characterized by reduced exports and a notable recovery in imports. Meanwhile, on the fiscal front, escalating expenditures are contributing to an uptick in the budget deficit.
Why the Russian Economy Matters Now
Since 2022, Russia’s trade has settled into a smaller “new normal.” Exports hover near $100 billion per quarter while imports sit around $75 billion. As a result, the current account surplus in 2023 tumbled to $50 billion, down 79% from 2022. This weaker external backdrop keeps pressure on the ruble and forces tighter policy.
What the Study Set Out to Explain
The chartbook tracks how sanctions, oil-market enforcement, and wartime budgets are reshaping the Russian economy. It asks whether today’s growth is durable and what steps could further limit Russia’s ability to finance the war.
Key Research Findings
- The current account surplus shrank to $50 billion in 2023, from a record $238 billion in 2022.
- Oil sanctions bite unevenly: discounts widened again, and OFAC tanker designations sidelined much of the shadow fleet.
- The federal deficit reached 1.5 trillion rubles in January–February 2024, already 92% of the full-year plan; tax hikes worth ~4 trillion rubles are on the table.
- Half of the National Welfare Fund’s liquid assets are gone; hard-currency NWF assets have been depleted, leaving mainly yuan and gold.
Read the Full Report
To read the whole of KSE Institute’s latest Russia Chartbook, visit the presentation by Benjamin Hilgenstock, Senior Economist, Yuliia Pavytska, Manager of the Sanctions Programme, and Vira Ivanchuk, Research Analyst.
Meet the Researchers
- Benjamin Hilgenstock: KSE Institute, Senior Economist.
- Yuliia Pavytska: KSE Institute, Manager of the Sanctions Programme.
- Vira Ivanchuk: KSE Institute, Research Analyst.
