Russian Oil Revenues Dip to $12.6 Billion as Sanctions Bite
In May 2025, Russian oil export revenues fell by $0.4 billion to $12.6 billion due to lower prices and export volumes. Seaborne oil shipments declined, with oil products dropping sharply. The shadow fleet’s role in exports grew, raising environmental and enforcement concerns. The findings come from the latest Russian Oil Tracker by the KSE Institute, authored by Borys Dodonov, Benjamin Hilgenstock, Anatolii Kravtsev, Yuliia Pavytska, and Nataliia Shapoval.
Falling Oil Exports Amid Sanctions Pressure
Global oil prices remained weak in May, keeping all Russian crude grades within the G7/EU price cap. Export volumes slipped, with overall seaborne shipments down 3.1% month-on-month. Reliance on Western-insured tankers dropped to 42%, while older, uninsured “shadow fleet” tankers carried most crude exports. India remained Russia’s largest crude buyer, taking 51% of shipments, while Turkey led in oil product imports.
Tracking Sanctions Evasion and Enforcement
KSE Institute data shows that 165 Russian-affiliated tankers operated in May without international insurance, 89% of them over 15 years old. Many had previously been sanctioned, yet enforcement gaps persist. Between March and May, 135 sanctioned vessels were still loaded at Russian ports. The US and EU maintain stricter compliance, while UK and Canadian enforcement remains weaker.
Key Research Findings
- Russian oil revenues fell to $12.6 billion in May 2025, the second-lowest since the invasion.
- Oil product exports dropped 7% month-on-month, with Pacific ports seeing a 21.9% collapse.
- Shadow fleet tankers carried 82% of crude exports, most over 15 years old.
- In a strict sanctions scenario, annual revenues could drop to $111 billion in 2025.
Economic and Policy Implications
If sanctions enforcement remains weak, Russia could still earn $163 billion from oil in 2025. Stronger enforcement and tighter price caps could sharply cut revenues, limiting war financing. The growing shadow fleet also raises environmental risks due to poor maintenance and flag evasion. Future monitoring will focus on how sanctions coalitions adapt to these tactics.
Meet the Researchers
- Borys Dodonov: KSE Institute
- Benjamin Hilgenstock: KSE Institute
- Anatolii Kravtsev: KSE Institute
- Yuliia Pavytska: KSE Institute
- Nataliia Shapoval: KSE Institute
Read the Full Report
Explore the complete findings and detailed charts in the Russian Oil Tracker on the KSE Institute’s website.
