Russian Oil Revenues Dip to $13.5B on Lower Prices
Russian oil revenues fell to $13.5 billion in August 2025, down $0.9 billion from July, according to the September Russian Oil Tracker by the KSE Institute. The decline came as prices for crude oil and most oil products, except naphtha, dropped despite stable export volumes. Crude oil revenues slipped by $0.4 billion to $8.8 billion, while oil product revenues fell by $0.6 billion to $4.8 billion.
Falling Russian Oil Revenues
Seaborne exports of crude oil declined by 1.4%, and oil product exports by 1.7% compared to July. Only 21% of crude oil and 82% of oil products were shipped on tankers covered by the International Group (IG) P&I insurance, underscoring Russia’s growing reliance on uninsured or “shadow” vessels.
The Shadow Fleet Expands
According to the KSE Institute, 155 Russian shadow fleet tankers transported crude and oil products in August 2025, including those engaged in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers. Alarmingly, 86% of these vessels were over 15 years old, which raises significant safety and environmental concerns.
India and Turkey Remain Key Buyers
India held its position as the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude, taking in 1,504 kb/d in August, down 11% month-on-month but still 45% of total Russian exports. Turkey continued to dominate oil product imports, purchasing around 425 kb/d, highlighting the nation’s central role in processing and reselling Russian fuel.
Sanctions and Price Caps Under Pressure
Western allies, including the EU, US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, have sanctioned 535 Russian oil tankers. Yet, the number of tankers violating sanctions continues to rise monthly, showing gaps in enforcement.
In August 2025, Urals crude traded below the G7/EU price cap, while ESPO crude traded well above it. All refined products, except naphtha, remained below the cap, reflecting how outdated cap levels have become.
Key Research Findings on Russian Oil Revenues
- Total revenues: Down to $13.5 billion in August 2025.
- Crude oil: $8.8 billion; oil products: $4.8 billion.
- Shadow fleet: 86% of tankers are over 15 years old.
- India: 45% of seaborne crude imports.
- Sanctions: Weak enforcement allows rising violations.
Future Outlook for Russian Oil Revenues
Under current caps and sanctions, the KSE Institute projects Russian oil revenues of $155 billion in 2025 and $125 billion in 2026. If discounts widen to $40/barrel (Urals) and $30/barrel (ESPO), revenues could plunge to $136 billion in 2025 and just $46 billion in 2026. However, if sanctions enforcement remains weak, revenues may climb to $161 billion in 2025 and $146 billion in 2026, a significant boost despite international restrictions. Since March 2022, total Russian oil export losses are estimated at $159 billion, reflecting the lasting financial impact of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Meet the Researchers
- Borys Dodonov, KSE Institute
- Benjamin Hilgenstock, KSE Institute
- Anatolii Kravtsev, KSE Institute
- Yuliia Pavytska, KSE Institute
- Nataliia Shapoval, KSE Institute
Read the Full Report
Read the complete “Russian Oil Tracker – September 2025” on the KSE Institute website for detailed charts and policy scenarios.
Additional Reading
Explore other policy papers and reports on Ukraine’s economic transition and development on the KSE Institute’s website. Read more policy briefs on Eastern Europe and emerging economies on the FREE Network’s website.
