KSE Institute: Russian Oil Revenues Drop, but Shadow Fleet Cushions the Blow

Russia’s oil export revenues declined by $0.9 billion in August 2025, reaching $13.5 billion, according to the latest Russian Oil Tracker by the KSE Institute. Lower global prices for crude oil and most oil products drove the drop, even though export volumes remained mostly stable. Crude oil revenues fell to $8.8 billion, while oil product revenues slid to $4.8 billion.

The report, authored by researchers from the KSE Institute, highlights how Russia continues to rely on a vast “shadow fleet” to move oil and avoid Western sanctions.

How Sanctions and Shadow Fleets Shape the Oil Market

Since the start of Western sanctions, Russia has developed a massive network of old tankers to transport crude and oil products outside official oversight. Many of those tankers are over 15 years old, which increases the risk of oil spills. In August 2025, 155 of these tankers departed Russian ports, often engaging in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers to obscure cargo origins.

Only 21% of crude and 82% of oil products were shipped using tankers covered by International Group (IG) insurance, showing how much the shadow fleet now dominates Russia’s seaborne oil trade.

India and Turkey Remain Russia’s Top Buyers

India remains the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude oil. Although imports fell 11% month-on-month to 1.5 million barrels per day, India still accounted for 45% of Russia’s total seaborne crude exports. Turkey held its top spot for oil product imports, taking in 425,000 barrels per day.

Key Research Findings

• Russia’s oil export revenues dropped by $0.9 billion in August 2025.
• 155 shadow fleet tankers carried oil and products, with 86% over 15 years old.
• Sanctions enforcement remains weak, allowing more tankers to operate illegally each month.
• Urals crude traded below the G7/EU price cap, while ESPO crude exceeded it.

What’s Next for Russian Oil Revenues?

The KSE Institute projects that Russia’s oil revenues will reach $155 billion in 2025 and $125 billion in 2026 under current sanctions. If Western enforcement weakens further, revenues could climb to $161 billion in 2025 and $146 billion in 2026. However, with stronger price caps and wider discounts on Russian crude, revenues could fall sharply, to as low as $46 billion in 2026. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Russia has lost an estimated $159 billion in oil export revenues.

Read the Full Report

Read the full Russian Oil Tracker – September 2025 on the KSE Institute’s website.

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.