Tag: Russian Oil Tracker
KSE Institute: Russian Oil Revenues Drop, but Shadow Fleet Cushions the Blow
Russia’s oil export revenues declined by $0.9 billion in August 2025, reaching $13.5 billion, according to the latest Russian Oil Tracker by the KSE Institute. Lower global prices for crude oil and most oil products drove the drop, even though export volumes remained mostly stable. Crude oil revenues fell to $8.8 billion, while oil product revenues slid to $4.8 billion.
The report, authored by researchers from the KSE Institute, highlights how Russia continues to rely on a vast “shadow fleet” to move oil and avoid Western sanctions.
How Sanctions and Shadow Fleets Shape the Oil Market
Since the start of Western sanctions, Russia has developed a massive network of old tankers to transport crude and oil products outside official oversight. Many of those tankers are over 15 years old, which increases the risk of oil spills. In August 2025, 155 of these tankers departed Russian ports, often engaging in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers to obscure cargo origins.
Only 21% of crude and 82% of oil products were shipped using tankers covered by International Group (IG) insurance, showing how much the shadow fleet now dominates Russia’s seaborne oil trade.
India and Turkey Remain Russia’s Top Buyers
India remains the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude oil. Although imports fell 11% month-on-month to 1.5 million barrels per day, India still accounted for 45% of Russia’s total seaborne crude exports. Turkey held its top spot for oil product imports, taking in 425,000 barrels per day.
Key Research Findings
- Russia’s oil export revenues dropped by $0.9 billion in August 2025.
- 155 shadow fleet tankers carried oil and products, with 86% over 15 years old.
- Sanctions enforcement remains weak, allowing more tankers to operate illegally each month.
- Urals crude traded below the G7/EU price cap, while ESPO crude exceeded it.
What’s Next for Russian Oil Revenues?
The KSE Institute projects that Russia’s oil revenues will reach $155 billion in 2025 and $125 billion in 2026 under current sanctions. If Western enforcement weakens further, revenues could climb to $161 billion in 2025 and $146 billion in 2026. However, with stronger price caps and wider discounts on Russian crude, revenues could fall sharply, to as low as $46 billion in 2026. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Russia has lost an estimated $159 billion in oil export revenues.
Read the Full Report
Read the full Russian Oil Tracker – September 2025 on the KSE Institute’s website.
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.
Russian Oil Revenues Dip to $13.5B on Lower Prices
Russian oil revenues fell to $13.5 billion in August 2025, down $0.9 billion from July, according to the September Russian Oil Tracker by the KSE Institute. The decline came as prices for crude oil and most oil products, except naphtha, dropped despite stable export volumes. Crude oil revenues slipped by $0.4 billion to $8.8 billion, while oil product revenues fell by $0.6 billion to $4.8 billion.
Falling Russian Oil Revenues
Seaborne exports of crude oil declined by 1.4%, and oil product exports by 1.7% compared to July. Only 21% of crude oil and 82% of oil products were shipped on tankers covered by the International Group (IG) P&I insurance, underscoring Russia’s growing reliance on uninsured or “shadow” vessels.
The Shadow Fleet Expands
According to the KSE Institute, 155 Russian shadow fleet tankers transported crude and oil products in August 2025, including those engaged in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers. Alarmingly, 86% of these vessels were over 15 years old, which raises significant safety and environmental concerns.
India and Turkey Remain Key Buyers
India held its position as the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude, taking in 1,504 kb/d in August, down 11% month-on-month but still 45% of total Russian exports. Turkey continued to dominate oil product imports, purchasing around 425 kb/d, highlighting the nation’s central role in processing and reselling Russian fuel.
Sanctions and Price Caps Under Pressure
Western allies, including the EU, US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, have sanctioned 535 Russian oil tankers. Yet, the number of tankers violating sanctions continues to rise monthly, showing gaps in enforcement.
In August 2025, Urals crude traded below the G7/EU price cap, while ESPO crude traded well above it. All refined products, except naphtha, remained below the cap, reflecting how outdated cap levels have become.
Key Research Findings on Russian Oil Revenues
- Total revenues: Down to $13.5 billion in August 2025.
- Crude oil: $8.8 billion; oil products: $4.8 billion.
- Shadow fleet: 86% of tankers are over 15 years old.
- India: 45% of seaborne crude imports.
- Sanctions: Weak enforcement allows rising violations.
Future Outlook for Russian Oil Revenues
Under current caps and sanctions, the KSE Institute projects Russian oil revenues of $155 billion in 2025 and $125 billion in 2026. If discounts widen to $40/barrel (Urals) and $30/barrel (ESPO), revenues could plunge to $136 billion in 2025 and just $46 billion in 2026. However, if sanctions enforcement remains weak, revenues may climb to $161 billion in 2025 and $146 billion in 2026, a significant boost despite international restrictions. Since March 2022, total Russian oil export losses are estimated at $159 billion, reflecting the lasting financial impact of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Meet the Researchers
- Borys Dodonov, KSE Institute
- Benjamin Hilgenstock, KSE Institute
- Anatolii Kravtsev, KSE Institute
- Yuliia Pavytska, KSE Institute
- Nataliia Shapoval, KSE Institute
Read the Full Report
Read the complete “Russian Oil Tracker – September 2025” on the KSE Institute website for detailed charts and policy scenarios.
Additional Reading
Explore other policy papers and reports on Ukraine’s economic transition and development on the KSE Institute’s website. Read more policy briefs on Eastern Europe and emerging economies on the FREE Network’s website.