Tag: Ukraine Conflict

Saving Lives During War: How to Make Evacuation Messages More Effective

Posted on November 26, 2025 | Policy Brief

When war threatens civilian populations, effective evacuation messages can mean the difference between life and death. Drawing on a controlled survey experiment conducted with 2,006 Ukrainians during the 2022 Russian invasion, we find that providing clear evacuation plans dramatically improves a message’s perceived effectiveness, while sophisticated message framing makes little difference. Our results indicate that people facing war are not naive about dangers—they need practical information on how to escape, not persuasion about why they should leave. This is especially true for those who do not have the means to evacuate autonomously. These findings offer guidance for authorities and humanitarian organizations: focus on providing concrete evacuation logistics rather than crafting perfect messaging.

The Life-or-Death Challenge of Wartime Evacuations

Each year, tens of thousands of civilians die in armed conflicts worldwide. Many of these deaths could be prevented through timely evacuations from danger zones. Yet despite imminent threats, many civilians hesitate to leave their homes. Understanding how to increase the effectiveness of evacuation messages has become a critical challenge for saving lives.

In July 2022, five months into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we conducted the first experimental study testing the effectiveness of evacuation messages during an active war. Working with 2,006 Ukrainians from regions directly affected by combat, focusing on areas that experienced occupation, shelling, and ground fighting, we tested two fundamental approaches to improving evacuation messaging.

Figure 1. Surveyed regions with the relative share of respondents.

Source: Martinez et al. (2025)

 

Testing What Works: Plans vs. Persuasion

Our experiment compared two strategies:

Strategy 1: Persuasive Nudges

We tested different message framings inspired by behavioral economics, emphasizing either the gains from evacuating (saving lives) or losses from staying (risking death), and highlighting either deteriorating living conditions or benefits to military effectiveness. These techniques have proven effective in other contexts, from increasing vaccination rates to promoting energy conservation.

Strategy 2: Practical Evacuation Plans

We tested whether adding concrete evacuation instructions improved message effectiveness. Half of our messages included specific details: free buses available at designated locations, phone numbers for reserving seats, and clear departure times.

Participants evaluated how effective each message would be in convincing residents of their city to evacuate, using a scale from 0 (completely ineffective) to 10 (very effective).

Key Finding: People Need Logistics, Not Persuasion

Our results deliver a clear message for policymakers and humanitarian organizations:

Providing evacuation plans works

Messages that included concrete evacuation plans were rated approximately 5% more effective than those without. This improvement is both statistically significant and practically meaningful—in Donetsk oblast alone, where 350,000 civilians remained in Ukrainian-controlled areas during our study, a 5% increase in evacuation rates could mean 17,500 additional lives moved to safety.

Message framing makes little difference

Surprisingly, none of our carefully crafted persuasive messages performed better than a simple, standard evacuation notice. Whether we emphasized gains or losses, living conditions or military benefits, the framing made no significant difference to perceived effectiveness.

Different groups respond differently

The evacuation plan’s effect was strongest among those who had not previously evacuated, which is exactly the population authorities most need to reach. This particular segment of the population is characterized by lower financial means and, therefore, a lower likelihood of owning a car, which turned out to be a crucial factor when it comes to timely evacuations. Finally, women responded more strongly to evacuation plans than men.

Figure 2. Experimental Treatment Effects.

Source: Martinez et al. (2025)

Understanding the Psychology of War Zone Evacuations

Why do practical plans matter more than persuasive messaging? Our findings suggest that people experiencing war are far from naive about the dangers they face. Among our respondents:

  • 82% perceived real risk of death or injury from missile strikes
  • 40% had already evacuated at least once
  • 50% of those who stayed had considered evacuating

Which seems to suggest that the barrier is not understanding risk—it is knowing how to act on it. Our correlational analysis supports this interpretation: those offered transportation during the early invasion were 12-18 percentage points more likely to evacuate, while simply receiving evacuation information showed weaker effects.

Policy Recommendations

Based on our findings, we recommend that authorities and humanitarian organizations prioritize the following:

  1. Focus resources on logistics, not messaging

Instead of investing in sophisticated communication strategies, dedicate resources to organizing concrete evacuation support: transportation, clear meeting points, advance booking systems, and designated evacuation routes.

  1. Provide specific, actionable information

Every evacuation message should include: exact locations for transportation pickup, specific departure times, contact information for coordination, clear instructions for what evacuees can bring, and confirmation of free transportation.

  1. Target messages strategically

Prioritize delivering evacuation plans to those who have not previously evacuated, women who show higher responsiveness to organized evacuations, and areas where residents lack personal evacuation plans, that is most likely in the lower socio-economic status neighborhoods.

  1. Act on timing

Our research captured a relatively stable period in the conflict. During acute escalations, rapid deployment of evacuation logistics likely matters even more than message optimization.

Implications Beyond Ukraine

While our study focused on Ukraine, approximately 50 active conflicts worldwide threaten civilian populations. Our findings suggest a fundamental shift in how international organizations approach emergency evacuations: from persuasion to facilitation.

The lesson is sobering, but actionable. People facing mortal danger do not need convincing that threats are real. They need practical help escaping them. This insight should reshape how humanitarian organizations allocate resources, how militaries plan for civilian protection, and how governments prepare for crisis scenarios.

Conclusion

Effective evacuation during war is not about finding the perfect words; it is about providing clear paths to safety. Our research suggests that even simple additions of logistical information can meaningfully improve an evacuation message’s perceived effectiveness. In contexts where every percentage point of improved evacuation rates translates to lives saved, focusing on practical evacuation support over persuasive messaging represents both an evidence-based and morally imperative policy choice. For the millions of civilians who may face evacuation decisions in current and future conflicts, the message from our research is clear: authorities must move beyond telling people to leave and start showing them exactly how.

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

Trump’s Sanctions Hit Russia’s Oil Giants: Maria Perrotta Berlin Discusses the Impact

Posted on October 28, 2025 | News

In a new Associated Press (AP) report, the United States and European Union have jointly announced fresh sanctions on Russia’s leading oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil. The measures aim to cut revenue funding for Moscow’s war in Ukraine and signal the Trump administration’s first major sanctions package on Russian oil since returning to office.

This move underscores Washington’s tougher stance toward the Kremlin’s war economy and its global oil trade network.

Sanctions Are Powerful, But Often Come Too Late

“The sanctions are large and powerful, but they have always come a little too late,” said Maria Perrotta Berlin, Assistant Professor at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE).

Perrotta Berlin explained that Russia’s shadow fleet and complex web of traders have helped it adapt to earlier restrictions. However, she noted that the new measures, which threaten secondary sanctions on Indian and Chinese refiners, could have a more immediate chilling effect on Russian oil exports.

Sanctions Pressure on Putin and Russia’s Oil Strategy

According to the AP article, the sanctions aim to pressure President Vladimir Putin to consider President Donald Trump’s proposal for an “immediate ceasefire.” Analysts caution that while the sanctions won’t cripple Russia’s economy overnight, they could increase long-term costs, reduce oil revenues, and expose vulnerabilities in Moscow’s energy strategy. In parallel, the European Union’s ban on Russian LNG imports and the sanctioning of 117 additional tankers amplify the economic pressure on Russia’s fossil fuel sector.

To read Maria Perrotta Berlin’s full commentary and detailed analysis on how Trump’s sanctions are reshaping Russia’s oil policy, see the full AP article on the Associated Press website.

Further Reading: Sanctions, Energy, and Russia’s War Economy

Energy exports remain the backbone of Russia’s economy and a tool of geopolitical leverage. Sanctions targeting this sector aim to reduce state revenue and limit Moscow’s influence abroad.

  • Explore the Sanctions Portal Evidence Base to access the latest research on energy sanctions against Russia.
  • Review the Timeline of Western Sanctions and Russian Countermeasures to understand how both sides have adapted since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

For more expert insights and economic analysis, visit the SITE website.

Securing Women’s Safety at the Time of War

Posted on March 8, 2022 | FROGEE PROJECT, News

20220308 Securing Women’s Safety

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, millions of women are facing grave risks from displacement, violence, and loss. On this International Women’s Day, it is crucial to recognize the unique challenges women experience during armed conflicts — from direct violence to long-term psychological and economic harm. Evidence from past wars shows that gender-based violence increases sharply during and after conflicts, demanding urgent international attention and support.

Women’s Vulnerability During the Ukraine War

The war in Ukraine has caused immense human suffering, forcing over 1.5 million people to flee by early March 2022. Russian attacks have targeted cities, disrupted humanitarian aid, and endangered civilians. Research shows that women in war zones face multiple layers of risk — including sexual violence, psychological abuse, and displacement-related exploitation. Gender-based violence often extends beyond physical assault, encompassing coercion, loss of freedom, and systemic mistreatment (Wirtz et al., 2014).

Sexual Violence as a Weapon of War

Scholars now recognize sexual violence in armed conflicts as a deliberate tool of warfare rather than random brutality (Skjelsbaek, 2001). Studies indicate that aggressors from gender-unequal societies are more likely to use such violence (Taylor, 1999; Meger, 2016; Guarnieri & Tur-Prats, 2020). Even after fleeing, women face heightened threats in refugee camps, where sexual and domestic violence often persist (Araujo et al., 2019; Stark & Ager, 2011).

Protecting Women in Conflict and Displacement

Governments, humanitarian organizations, and the international community must prioritize women’s safety, justice, and empowerment. Key steps include:

  • Ensuring safe evacuation from conflict zones.
  • Holding perpetrators of sexual violence accountable, with zero tolerance for impunity.
  • Including sexual violence in sanctions regimes, per UN Security Council Resolution 1820.
  • Involving refugee women in leadership roles in protection programs.
  • Providing training and awareness on gender-based violence prevention.
  • Enabling legal work opportunities for displaced women to prevent exploitation.
  • Offering mental health and trauma support for survivors.

A Call for Global Solidarity

As we hope for peace and the safe return of displaced families, this International Women’s Day should serve as a call to action — to strengthen protection for women, prevent gender-based violence in conflict, and ensure justice for survivors.

The FREE Network and the Forum for Research on Gender Economics (FROGEE) continue to advocate for women’s safety and empowerment, supported by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA).

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