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Human Trafficking, Prostitution Legislation, and Data

An image of red light street with signs of striptease club representing human trafficking and prostitution legislation

This report is the compilation of exploratory research work conducted within a project led by Giancarlo Spagnolo (SITE and EIEF), together with Maria Perrotta Berlin (SITESSE) and Ina Ganguli (UMass Amherst). Whilst investigating the effects of asymmetric punishment in the regulation of prostitution, the interaction of markedly different legislations for this along the Franco-German border was of interest. In this report, we present gathered information and data regarding human trafficking and sex work in Germany. We begin by broadly outlining both topics and continue with presenting points that should be considered in future research. The results from a limited survey, where sex workers and counsellors were interviewed, are also presented.

Exploring the Interaction Between Sex Work Regulation and Human Trafficking along the Franco-German Border

In this report, we present data regarding human tracking and the forced prostitution with which it is often connected, as well as data regarding voluntary and consensual sex work. Though we present these topics alongside one another because of the many possible ways in which they may be connected, we do not make any correlating assumptions.

There are different claims regarding the existence of a correlation between sexual exploitation and prostitution policies. Working under the assumption that a correlation does exist, it is still unclear what it would look like (Sonnabend and Stadtmann, 2018). While some argue that legalising sex work leads to an increased social acceptance of the phenomenon and thereby also increased demand for voluntary sex work. It also makes it easier and cheaper for criminals to track people and find customers that, unwittingly or not, pay for sex from victims of human tracking for sexual exploitation (Sonnabend and Stadtmann, 2018; Cho et al., 2013; Jakobsson and Kotsadam, 2013).

On the other hand, restricting or criminalising sex work may make it less likely for such victims, as well as buyers of sexual services of any kind, to collaborate with police forces to report illicit activities related to human tracking (Bisschop et al., 2017; Cunningham and Shah, 2014). Thus, when sex work is criminalised, any that remains will move into the dark, and hence become much more difficult to control (Scoular, 2010).

Sonnabend and Stadtmann (2018) found that different empirical studies have given rather contradictory results. For instance, whilst Cho et al. (2013) found a positive correlation between legal prostitution and tracking flows comparing existing data from over 150 countries, they also acknowledged that this needed to be considered with caution due to the lack of consistent data on human tracking across countries.

On the other side of the spectrum, a report by the New Zealand Government (2008) and a study on human tracking in Europe (Hernandez and Rudolph, 2015) suggest that no links between the sex industry and human tracking can be made. Instead, Hernandez and Rudolph would argue that human tracking in Europe stems mostly within already existing migratory and refugee corridors and is more likely to happen where host countries have weaker institutions, higher general crime rates and more liberal border controls. Host countries’ rates of asylum seekers, however, do not seem to play a role in the extent of human tracking.

Sonnabend and Stadtmann (2018) also endeavoured to calculate the effects of the Nordic model on sex work. They found that the prohibition of sex work is likely to create more loopholes and worse conditions for voluntary prostitution, and thus conditions that facilitate sexual exploitation and human tracking. As can be deduced from this brief introduction, any pre-existing view on the interplay between sex work and human tracking can be easily reinforced as virtually every standpoint can find some support in research. Throughout this report, we attempt to present the information we have gathered bearing these disparate previous findings in mind.

This report consists of six sections. This brief introduction is followed by a section that elaborates on the connections that can be made between human tracking and prostitution legislation. Section 3 presents current issues regarding human tracking internationally, as well as a compilation of the available data for Germany. Section 4 focuses on Germany and the legislative and regulatory environment under which lawful sex work is carried out there. Thereafter, we present some findings from a limited field survey of actors within the prostitution scene along the Franco-German border. We round this report off with a conclusion, briefly summarising and discussing our findings.

Regulatory Efforts

Regardless of how sex work and human tracking may be related, the likelihood of discovering tracking victims can be affected by the policies in place surrounding prostitution. Opponents of laws restricting prostitution often argue that when sex trade is outlawed, even if only for one party (as in the case of the Nordic model) the activity does not cease to exist, but is simply moved into the black market. Getting a full grasp of the extent of human tracking within the already restricted environment of prostitution will be considerably more difficult than if it had been within a legalised setting that allowed for regulatory oversight. However, as will discussed in this report, getting the regulatory oversight right is a challenge and there are considerable legitimate criticisms of this liberal stance too.

Table 1 Varieties of Legislation

Table 1 Varieties of Legislation

Varieties of Legislation

Across Europe, we find different kinds of prostitution legislation. Countries have chosen to combat the negative elements often associated with sex trade in ways that differ greatly in mechanisms and outcomes. These can be grouped into four overarching groups, all working in somewhat different ways, presented in Table 1 above.

Historically, prostitution has been a highly sensitive issue. Traditional moral and religious values all over Europe have condemned extramarital sex of any kind. Laws have ranged from outlawing prostitution to barely touching the topic. This becomes apparent when looking at the four overarching types of legislation that we will cover in this section. Abolitionist and prohibitionist policies present the two dominant legal traditions.

The four groups do not only differ from one another, but there is great variation between countries of each respective group, perhaps with the exception of countries that have neo-abolitionist policies. For instance, while brothels are legal in Germany and the Netherlands, Latvia has chosen to regulate prostitution from an abolitionist standpoint by making sex work a licensed profession but largely does nothing more (Cabinet of Ministers (Latvia), 2008). In Turkey, prostitution was legalised already in 1923. In recent years, however, Turkey has been a lot more restrictive in issuing new licenses (Sussman, 2012).

Figure 1 Typical Historical Development of Legislation

Figure 1 Typical Historical Development of Legislation

The prohibitionist group differs less in terms of legislation and more when it comes to enforcement. The enforcement of these policies tends to be weak, with measures needed to ensure that no prostitution is carried out behind closed doors largely lacking. We find the greatest in-group variation amongst the abolitionist countries. This approach is also the one that is least easily defined. In a sense, it, therefore, becomes a catch-all term for countries that fall outside of the scope of the other three groups.

The reasons for the differences in legislation on this matter is that countries, for varying reasons, have chosen to prioritise different goals. This is obvious when looking at the mechanisms of each type in Table 1. What they all have in common, however, is that without diligent enforcement of the laws, illegal prostitution is likely to persist.

Project and Intentions

As part of a research project at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) in which researchers Giancarlo Spagnolo (SITE), Maria Perrotta Berlin (SITE) and Ina Ganguli (UMass Amherst) are looking into the effects of asymmetric punishment in legislation, the neo-abolitionist ‘Nordic model’ for prostitution is of interest.

Though the focus is placed on Scandinavia, France came into the picture as similar legislation was adopted there in April 2016. As a result of the change in France, which presumably made it harder for people to purchase sexual services, it became interesting to see how potential consumers may take advantage of the open border to Germany, where prostitution is legal. Before the law changed, the exchange of sex for money had been legal, with some restrictions on solicitation. Running a brothel, pimping or paying for sex with a minor had, however, never been allowed. With the change towards asymmetric punishment, selling sex for money remained legal whereas purchasing it was now considered a crime.

This put the two most recently developed types of prostitution legislation, regulationst in Germany and neo-abolitionist in France, next to one another along the Franco-German border. The effects of the cross-border dynamics are what we, as research assistants to the team at SITE, tried to map. We assumed that the regulationist approach of Germany would enable us to more easily investigate the effects of the change in legislation in France across the border.

For this reason, we investigated how customers and working conditions, among other things, changed in areas of Germany neighbouring France. As our research progressed, this underlying assumption would prove to be less straightforward than we had thought originally. Though we cannot give a conclusive answer to how the change in regulation came to affect the market for sex in Germany, we gained insights and gathered information that we have compiled in this report.

The State of Human Tracking

. . . the recruitment, transportation, transfer, harbouring or receipt of persons, by means of the threat or use of force or other forms of coercion, of abduction, of fraud, of deception, of the abuse of power or of a position of vulnerability or of the giving or receiving of payments or benefits to achieve the consent of a person having control over another person, for the purpose of exploitation. Exploitation shall include, at a minimum, the exploitation of the prostitution of others or other forms of sexual exploitation, forced labour or services, slavery or practices similar to slavery, servitude or the removal of organs.

— DEFINITION OF ‘TRAFFICKING IN PERSONS’, ARTICLE 3, PARAGRAPH (A) OF THE UN PROTOCOL TO PREVENT, SUPPRESS AND PUNISH TRAFFICKING IN PERSONS, ESPECIALLY WOMEN AND CHILDREN, SUPPLEMENTING THE UNITED NATIONS CONVENTION AGAINST TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME

The international community has long been struggling with the prevalence of human tracking. Initially, under the heading of slavery, human tracking has, through multiple conventions over the past 150 years, been explicitly restricted and outlawed by most countries. Though what we regard today as human tracking and modern slavery might not resemble stereotypical ideas from the past, at its core, it is still very much the same. We consider a situation as human tracking when a person is involuntarily under the control of another and forced to commit acts against his or her own will.

As the definition above is read, we see that human tracking can encompass many different criminal acts. However, there are three basic elements that are needed to legally define a situation as an instance of human tracking: an act, a means, and a purpose of exploitation. Because of its often hidden nature, the full extent of human tracking is difficult to map. Nonetheless, many countries across the world acknowledge the seriousness of the issue and are making efforts to combat it. Policymakers are further aware that the fight against human tracking is wholly dependent on international cooperation given that perpetrators often exploit vulnerable people by removing them from their countries of origin.

Once again, when discussing sexual exploitation in tracking, it is inevitable that regulations regarding prostitution will have to be discussed. Though sexual exploitation in trafficking does not necessarily entail prostitution, it is a straightforward way for trackers to monetise an already illicit activity. However, this does not mean that tracking for sexual purposes will be the underlying cause for all sex work, or even related to it in general, especially in jurisdictions where it is permitted. The relationship between prostitution and human tracking is complex and multifaceted and is deserving of thoughtful analysis.

A Lack of Reliable Information

There is uncertainty surrounding the prevalence of human tracking. Due to its illicit nature, it is hard to grasp really how widespread it is. It is only possible, as with any other black market good or criminal activity, to observe the number of detected instances of tracking. Currently, 173 of 193 UN member states have ratified the Palermo protocol on tracking in persons (UN Treaties Collection, 2019). In 160 of those, human tracking has been explicitly criminalised, and the numbers we have to rely on come from those countries (Chatzis, 2018). In the period 2012-2014, the United Nations Oce on Drugs and Crime (2016), UNODC, reported a total of 63,251 victims worldwide. Compared to estimates ranging in the tens of millions from the ILO (2012) among others, the number of detected victims is minuscule (US State Department, 2017).

There is also an under-reporting of different kinds of tracking. Especially organ removal is yet to be sufficiently mapped (Chatzis, 2018). Using any currently existing data involves an inherent bias stemming from this under-reporting that should be kept in mind. There are, however, some obvious tendencies shown in the data available to us, that help us in understanding human tracking at large.

A clear majority of reported victims are women, though the share of men has increased over time and is substantial. Data from 2014 published by the UNODC (2016) puts men at 21 per cent of victims. Men are particularly under-represented among victims of sexual exploitation; women make up 97 per cent of those exploited for sexual purposes (Chatzis, 2018). Men are considerably more likely to be exploited as forced labour. Namely, 85 per cent of detected male victims were exploited for labour. Overall, the victims of forced labour are in 63 per cent of all cases male (Chatzis, 2018).

Reasons for Persistence

Regardless of many efforts to combat this problem, human tracking persists. According to Chatzis (2018), the reasons for this lie not only in the complex nature of the crime, but also (i) in the widespread use of the internet in facilitating it, (ii) in an international trend to deregulate labour markets, and (iii) in increased flows of migration. Especially in Europe, labour markets have seen a push from politicians asking for more flexibility after the most recent recession. Conflicts around the world, particularly in the Middle East, saw the nationalities of tracking victims mirror those of increased outward migration (Chatzis, 2018).

The sheer number of refugees over the most recent years, and the strain this has put on countries, agencies and organisations, has also added to a likely increase in the undetected cases of tracking. European countries have not been capable of effectively screening for likely victims of tracking (Chatzis, 2018). One could even claim that the incapability in understanding the mechanisms of tracking has caused some European countries to induce it, albeit inadvertently. For instance, the Italian government’s agreement with Libyan authorities to stem the flow of migrants across the Mediterranean has been reported to create slave-like conditions for predominantly African migrants in Libya (Kirchgaessner and Tondo, 2018). This was also reflected in our study, which will be further discussed below, counsellors working in Germany that we interviewed had personally met Nigerian women, whose experience as victims of sex tracking began in Libya.

Public Official Figures

Available data allow us to make some general statements concerning the types of tracking around the world. A majority of detected tracking victims globally have been victims of sexual exploitation. However, the most prevalent kind of tracking changes with geography. In Africa, victims are more commonly detected in circumstances defined as forced labour, rather than as sexual exploitation. However, this information comes with the caveat that it could instead be a reflection of what kind of tracking rapporteurs in different parts of the world are able to detect.

When looking at Europe, the most recent figures from 2016 reported by the UNODC show that the share of detected tracking victims that had suffered sexual exploitation is substantial, reportedly more than two-thirds of victims were tracked for sex (UNODC, 2018b). Similar numbers were reported for Western and Southern Europe, a region largely made up of the countries that were part of the Western Bloc, in the preceding report from the UNODC (2016). Throughout Western and Southern Europe, twelve (thirteen) countries reported the 12,226 (12,775) victims detected there come from all over the world in 2016 (2014), with citizenships in 124 (137) different countries.

There are, however, some clear trends that can be gleaned from the numbers. For Western and Southern Europe, victims more frequently come from outside the country they are detected in or nearby countries. A third of victims had their origin in Central and South-Eastern Europe, an area largely corresponding to countries of the former Eastern Bloc that have now become part of the European Union (UNODC, 2018b). This share was the same in 2014 (UNODC, 2016). The remainder is largely made up of victims from Africa and East Asia.

German Data

The Federal Criminal Police Oce (Bundeskriminalamt), BKA, is the government agency that compiles data for all sorts of criminal activities across the country. The BKA annually publishes a report on the state of human tracking in Germany, currently under the name of ‘Bundeslagebild Menschenhandel’. Again, when viewing these figures, we need to keep in mind that the numbers presented here only concern the detected instances of human tracking.

These reports, from 1999 until now, are available online at the BKA’s website. The most recent report for 2018 was made public in September 2019. Though the structure of the report differs slightly from year to year, there are some tables that are available throughout the period. For this report, we have primarily used the disclosure of nationalities of victims of human tracking for sexual exploitation. As could perhaps be expected, the vast majority of reported victims over the past 20 years come from Europe. Over time, we see a decreasing trend in the number of victims of human tracking. However, due to the relatively low levels of human tracking from non-European countries, this trend is really only noticeable for victims of European origin.

Figure 2 Non-European Victims by Continent (1999-2018)

Figure 2 Non-European Victims by Continent (1999-2018)

Figure 3 Victims of European and Unknown Backgrounds (1999-2018), incl. Germans from 2003

Figure 3 Victims of European and Unknown Backgrounds (1999-2018), incl. Germans from 2003

Ideally, we would want to disaggregate the data and look at individual countries instead of continents. However, the BKA does not publicly disclose the figures for all countries. What it does, though, is feature numbers for a selection of countries of origin each year. Though not explicitly stated, it is likely to be the most frequent origin countries for each year. In Table 2 below, we show which countries appear and when. An important change in the report is the inclusion of German victims from 2003 (BKA, 2003).

Table 2: Specified Origin Countries of Victims of Tra�cking 11 for Sexual Exploitation

Table 2: Specified Origin Countries of
Victims of Tracking 11
for Sexual Exploitation

Figure 4 Victims from Specified FSU Countries (1999-2005)

Figure 4 Victims from Specified FSU Countries (1999-2005)

Throughout the period and not subject to any major change, is that most victims of human tracking are citizens of Central and Eastern European countries. However, over the course of 18 years, there are some changes regarding which countries are more and less prominent.

At the turn of the millennium, countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) constituted a majority of all non-German human tracking victims. This can be said despite having explicit data for only five of those countries, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania and Latvia, in the period 1999-2002. For 2003-2007, it is possible to observe a shift where the share and number of these countries decrease in conjunction with them being less and less mentioned in BKA’s reporting.

Bulgaria and Romania first appear in the 2001 report and the number of victims rises sharply until 2003. Since then, there have been fluctuations in the number of reported victims from these two countries, but they have overall been somewhat stable at a considerably higher level than before. Since 2008, they have made up more than 55 per cent of the European non-German victims, and the majority of all non-German nationalities for all but three years.

Figure 5 The Most Frequent Origin Countries 2018 (2001-2018)

Figure 5 The Most Frequent Origin Countries 2018 (2001-2018)

Figure 6 Total Number of Victims 1999-2018

Figure 6 Total Number of Victims 1999-2018

Prostitution in Germany

In the past 30 years, prostitution laws in Germany have undergone numerous changes. Not only German law is likely to have affected the prevalence of prostitution within the country, though. The expansion of the EU and domestic as well as EU-wide policies in relation to it, policies in neighbouring countries, and major geopolitical events might have all contributed to the current state of prostitution and human tracking in Germany.

However, the greatest change is arguably the 2001 law, the Prostitutionsgesetz (ProstG), which institutionalised prostitution in Germany, taking the exchange of sex for money from a legal grey area into a legally recognised occupation. In principle, this regulationist approach could bring illegal and criminal acts often related to the sex trade, such as human tracking, to the surface, thereby creating a safer prostitution market for both sex workers and consumers through the possibility of regulatory oversight. However, with time, polarised opinions have been raised about this policy. Some have praised the ProstG as a milestone for sex workers’ rights. Others have proclaimed that Germany has become an exploitative ‘battery cage’ (Conrad and Felden, 2018). There have been several previous investigations into the ways in which the ProstG has impacted the state of prostitution, as well as reports on human tracking in Germany reaching different conclusions (e.g. Tavella, 2008; Czarnecki et al., 2014; Gunderson, 2012; Kavemann and Steffan, 2013).

With time, it became clear that legalisation without regulation may be fertile soil for the uncontrolled growth of prostitution activities. For this reason, the German government enacted the Prostituiertenschutzgesetz (ProstSchG), or the ‘Prostitute Protection Act’, in July 2017. The act added a number of statutory requirements on sex workers, which we will cover shortly. Germany’s approach to prostitution represents an interesting case in the European context, where prostitution has typically been very differently conceptualised and thus, legally dealt with.

The Evolution of German Law

The most significant shift for Germany is arguably the recently mentioned ProstG, which created the occupational status for sex work in Germany. It was enacted after extensive debate. Sex workers had voiced their misgivings with the then-current legislation, where prostitution was not illegal but without a legitimate position in society. Brothels and sex workers were perceived to be prevented from achieving acceptable standards in their working conditions because of the regulations in place. From the early 1980s to the mid-90s, several debates on the topic were held in the Bundestag. Draft legislation was rejected in June 1998 by the governing centre-right CDU/FDP coalition. The following centre-left SPD/Greens government brought the proposals back to parliament, which then later passed them with support from all parties bar the CDU/CSU group on 20 December 2001. The law came into force on January 1, 2002 (Kavemann and Steffan, 2013).

With ProstG, sex work was set on an equal legal footing to any other kind of profession. Those practising it were now entitled to social insurance and were given the legal means to demand payment from customers (Kavemann and Steffan, 2013). However, there are geographical restrictions on prostitution, which vary between states. The 1974 Einfu ̈hrungsgesetz zum Strafgesetzbuch, EGStGB, contains one article (number 297), which is of particular relevance.

The EGStGB article gives states the right to restrict the areas and times in which prostitution is allowed through decrees. For municipalities (Gemeinde) with a population above 20,000 inhabitants, a part of the municipality can be set off-limits for prostitution, with the option to forbid it completely in municipalities with up to 50,000 inhabitants. This law has been used as a justification for instance in Baden-Wu ̈rttemberg and Saarland, where prostitution has been forbidden in municipalities with less than 35,000 inhabitants since 1979 and 1982 respectively. The law also allows for restrictions regarding which times of the day prostitution is permitted.

In October 2016, the Bundestag passed the ProstSchG, effective as of 1st July 2017. introducing new regulations on the trade of sex. To lawfully work as a prostitute, one would now have to register as such and thereafter carry a work ID. Registration requires valid ID documents, a health check-up and a yearly health examination to maintain the status. Furthermore, the registration needs to be renewed every two years. In order to protect sex workers’ right to anonymity, one may be registered under a pseudonym if requested.

Additional provisions in ProstSchG include barring registrations if there is evidence of the registration being induced by third parties, or when in the last six weeks of pregnancy. When registering, the responsible agency is required to inform sex workers of their rights and responsibilities, including what the ProstSchG entails, such as consultation opportunities in relation to health and pregnancy, and how to get help in emergencies. Additionally, all prostitution-related businesses, such as brothels and Laufhauser (establishments where sex workers rent rooms), need to register and get permits as well.

Lastly, the ProstSchG also introduced a statutory condom requirement during intercourse. Not following this requirement could result in a fine of up to 50,000 Euros. Though the law as a whole was welcomed by most states, especially because of the statutory permission requirement (Erlaubnispflicht), many of the other requirements are related to significant implementation costs.

In connection to the introduction of ProstSchG, the German Federal Statistical Oce, Destatis, was tasked with gathering statistics on several of the registration requirements now statutorily demanded (law ProstStatV, 2017) from state and local authorities. As of yet, there have been significant difficulties in gathering this data. At the time of writing this report, only ten of Germany’s sixteen states have provided any data. The data provided is also incomplete, with several Landkreise and even some major cities unable to successfully roll out the new legislation (Destatis, 2019). Hopefully, many of the current data issues will be mitigated in the future.

The Extent of Prostitution in Germany

Though a country with regulationist policies, Germany has little publicly available statistics concerning the state of prostitution in Germany. A central issue is and has long been the actual size of the sex trade market. One figure that is often referred to in many newspaper articles is that of 400,000 prostitutes. It has been circling around in the media for at least the past 15 years and we have not been able to identify the original source.

However, the estimates vary widely depending on the paper reporting the number, and there is generally no reference to how estimates were created or by whom. One extensive, though not exhaustive search by us found the total number of prostitutes in Germany over the past 20 years to reportedly range from a lower bound of 60,000 (Stephani, 2017) to an upper bound of 700,000 (Junge, 2001). The most recent official number of issued licenses (from 31st December 2017), however, are 1,350 across Germany (See Table 3 below)4 and a total of 7,000 having reported to relevant authorities (Destatis, 2019).

Today, prostitution is commonplace across Germany. In German and international media, the country is often referred to as one of the prostitution hubs of Europe. One figure that is commonly referred to in the media is that of 1.2 million transactions a day (Junge, 2001). Though again, this is only an estimate with unclear foundations. Three surveys conducted between 2012 and 2015, one by bi-weekly women’s magazine Brigitte and two by the German edition of Playboy, had German men responding to if and how often they buy sex. There were considerable differences in their results, indicating that between 10 and 88 per cent of German men had bought sex at some point (Crocoll, 2013; FOCUS Online, 2012; 2015).

Table 3 Number of Issued Licences by State

Table 3 Number of Issued Licences by State

By moving away from sex workers having the option to register as such on their social insurance and instead of making it mandatory to register to get a permit, the German government hopes to tackle the difficulties it has had in understanding the full extent of the prostitution market. In 2013, the Federal Employment Agency reported that the number of women registered as sex workers on their social insurance was 44 (Meyer and Nagel, 2013). Beyond doubt, this figure did not correspond to reality.

In a study included in the 2007 governmental evaluation of ProstG, 305 sex workers completed written interviews to explore some of the reasons why the number of registered sex workers was so low. Only 1 per cent of respondents had a formal employment contract as sex workers, while some had other professions outside of prostitution. A clear majority (roughly 70 per cent) said they were freelancing. Responses from brothel operators also indicated that sex workers were given the option to be registered as “employees of an artists’ agency or as a prostitute” (BMFSFJ, 2007). This demonstrates the failure to turn sex work into a profession like any other, which might be related to the common stigma associated with this profession, and likely spurred on the introduction of the ProstSchG measures.

Changes Outside of Germany

Table 4 Changes abroad likely to have impacted the German market for sex

Table 4 Changes abroad likely to have impacted the German market for sex

Apart from domestic reforms in regulation, the German market for sex is likely to have been affected by multiple outside factors since the enactment of the 2001 ProstG. Together with our initial point of interest, the French reform in 2016, we have listed some of the most prominent events in Table 4 above.

EU Enlargement

On 1 May 2004, the European Union gained ten new member states: Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Roughly two and a half years later, in 2007, Bulgaria and Romania also joined. In this period, the European Union saw the number of member states rise from 15 to 27 and its total population increased by roughly a quarter (Eurostat, 2018). All these countries were and still are, below the EU-28 GDP per capita average, together with only four ‘old’ members (Eurostat, 2017).

Since their accession, there has been a considerable movement of labour across Europe from these countries (European Commission, 2011). However, there were certain provisions in place for both accession groups, restricting the free movement of labour from those countries to Germany at first. Full freedom was not granted until seven years after joining (Andor, 2014; European Commission, 2018).

Ukraine

Following the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation and the subsequent war in Donbas, around 1.6 million people have been displaced according to the UN (2018). The majority of those are registered as internally displaced within Ukraine, but around 1 million people have sought asylum in neighbouring countries. In the period from 2011 to 2015, a report commissioned by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) and written by the market research institute GfK estimated that the share of the population vulnerable to human tracking rose from 14 to 21 per cent, a 50 per cent increase (GfK, 2015). In 2017, that share had not changed (GfK, 2017).

At the same time, the number of registered tracked persons has followed a bit of a U-curve. The OSCE (2016) reported that the number was 380 in 2006, and in 2015 it was 111 and during the first ten months of 2016 only 96. The UNODC (2018a), however, presents slightly different numbers from the Ukrainian Ministry of Social Policy, totalling 83 in 2015. From 2014 to 2017 they report the number of victims rising from only 27 to 198. According to the UNODC, a majority of victims were tracked for labour exploitation, but the share of those exploited for sexual purposes increased from a few percents initially to around a quarter in 2017. The discrepancy in the numbers reported by the UNODC and the OSCE is an issue, though.

Additionally, the change in visa rules for Ukrainian (and Georgian) citizens in 2017 eased access to the Schengen area. If in possession of a biometric passport, Ukrainian citizens could now go to Schengen countries without a visa (European Commission, 2019). In a small survey, conducted in December 20175, we found through interviews with sex workers and counsellors in Germany that there has been a perceived increase in sex workers from Ukraine recently. Again, we need to acknowledge that the origin countries of sex workers do not necessarily indicate activities surrounding human tracking. There are, however, reasons to assume that with an increased migratory flow from Ukraine, human tracking activities may possibly take advantage of the same corridor.

Migration Crisis

As mentioned in the case of the war in eastern Ukraine, displaced people and refugees are exposed to an increased risk of being tracked (IOM, 2015). In armed conflict, fighting groups not uncommonly abduct and recruit men, women and children to be forcibly used as combatants, sexual and domestic slaves, forced labour or coerced into marriages (UNODC, 2016). Chatzis (2018) also stressed conflict as one of the main reasons for the persistence of tracking.

Though the number of reported cases of tracking from especially Syria initially went up following the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War, absolute levels remained relatively low (UNODC, 2016). As noted by Chatzis (2018) though, it is not safe to say that this is an accurate reflection of reality as the crisis created circumstances where screening for tracking was, and in part still remains, neglected.

France

On the 6th of April 2016, France implemented the ‘Nordic model’, designed to discourage buyers of prostitution and ease pressures on prostitutes. Those caught buying sex could face up to 3500 Euros in fines for repeat offences and fines of up to 1500 Euros for first-time offences (McPartland, 2016). Before the law changed, France would have been categorised as a country with abolitionist legislation. It had in place restrictions on pimping, brothels, and solicitation, while the passive solicitation of customers had been banned in 2003 (Chrisafis, 2012). However, with regard to the fundamental act of paying and being paid for sex, there was no statutory ban (RFI, 2015).

EU Directive

The 2011 EU Directive ‘on preventing and combating tracking in human beings and protecting its victims’ (Directive 2011/36/EU) was agreed by the Council to homogenise the varying national regulations of this cross-country problem. It replaced a 2002 Council Framework Decision. For Germany, it included new penal provisions, which would ease the implementation against trackers and tracking (CBSS, 2016).

In the directive, member states were requested to transpose it by April 6th, 2013. By that date, Germany was the sole member state not to have transposed the directive into law (European Parliament, 2016). Not until roughly three years later in July 2016 did the Bundestag pass a bill proposed by the federal government to turn it into law. Even after the decision, implementation would wait until 1st July 2017.

Though Germany today has the legislative tools to combat tracking, critics lament the lenient application of laws. Only 26 per cent of the trackers convicted receive prison sentences, leaving potential trackers less than deterred (US State Department, 2017).

Data Gathering Mission

As any publicly available data on prostitution in Germany has been fraught with issues, the research team at SITE decided to get in touch with those most familiar with the subject: sex workers, brothel owners, as well as people working closely with sex workers and potential victims of human tracking, this last group henceforth referred to as counsellors. These counsellors worked in the public sector and for non-profit organisations as either health care professionals or social workers. By reaching out to all three groups, we intended to get closer to finding out the answers to the questions at the core of this effort: What were the effects on sex work and human tracking in the German regulationist environment caused by a change from abolitionist to neo-abolitionist legislation in France? More specifically, would sex buyers become more likely to go from France to Germany than they had been before to circumvent the risk of sanctions?

Method

To uncover the dynamics of the prostitution market in Germany, we deployed a mixed-method approach to create a holistic picture of the sex work market at the German border (Plowright, 2011), combining quantitative and qualitative methods. Specifically, we held semi-structured interviews with counsellors working with sex workers and victims of human tracking for the purpose of sexual exploitation active in the region along the border. This allowed the interviewees to share relevant information. Through our interactions, we could also gain vital knowledge of how to improve our plan for approaching and surveying sex workers.

One crucial constraint when interacting with sex workers in the field was time. As we could not offer any financial incentives, we developed a questionnaire (see Appendix) that would be able to capture the information we were searching for, without taking up too much of their time. Questions ranged from asking the sex workers about the extent to which they felt safe, liked or disliked their working conditions, to what the perceived national backgrounds of their clients were. The questionnaire aimed particularly at asking about possible changes in the nationalities they served, their profits, and prices they could charge over the preceding two years.

Most questions did not mention the law change in France or the possible difference in the number of French customers, although it was asked at the end of the survey in case this had not been mentioned by the interviewees. With the help of our counsellor contacts, we created a questionnaire that could be answered quickly, within 5-10 minutes from when we first approached them. It enabled us to gather mostly quantitative data with some minor scope for open answers, allowing some data of a qualitative nature as well.

When working with a sensitive subject such as sex work, it is crucial to respect the personal integrity of everyone involved. This meant that we had to ensure the sex workers’ anonymity, not record the conversations and even limit the sharing of raw data between researchers. One counsellor emphasised that many sex workers typically hide their occupation from their wider social circle, often even close family, due to the stigma and fear of social exclusion.

There is also a tendency for many sex workers to be reluctant about reporting the sometimes precarious conditions they live or work under, due to the stigma they face. Our efforts tried to mitigate this issue, committing ourselves to not share information that could identify them afterwards even within the research team. Of course, this did not apply to the experts we interviewed. These latter interviews were recorded and transcribed to ensure the completeness of the information provided.

Data

Geographically, we endeavoured to interview sex workers and brothel owners as close to the French border as possible. Specifically, this meant that the interviews we carried with these actors were in the cities of Saarbrucken, Saarlouis, Offenburg, Trier, and Freiburg and the village Rilchingen- Hanweiler outside of Saarbrucken. In order to get a more general understanding of sex work and human tracking across Germany, as well as more border-specific insights, we primarily interviewed counsellors exposed to the German-French border dynamics, based in Kehl, Strassbourg, Heilbronn, Freiburg, and Trier, but also some farther away in Berlin and Dortmund.

When approaching sex workers in the field, we learned quickly the truth of what counsellors had already warned us of. Out of 44 sex workers, only 17 accepted to be interviewed when approached. The survey was conducted in October and November 2017, generally late at night and either in a street setting or in a brothel. More than half of the sex workers (around 60%) had at that point been working in the sector for more than 1.5 years and almost a quarter for more than 8 years. Three-quarters of the sample was judged to have a good of comprehension of the questions, whereas language proved to be a considerable problem with the remainder of our interviewees.

Table 5 Nationalities of surveyed sex workers

Table 5 Nationalities of surveyed sex workers

Nine semi-structured interviews with counsellors working directly with either sex workers and/or victims of human tracking working along the Franco-German border were conducted. These interviews took place in person or over the phone. In both cases, they were recorded and later transcribed. These experts were working, as previously mentioned, either in publicly run health institutions that directed their services specifically towards the needs of sex workers or at NGOs aiming to support sex workers or victims of human tracking in various concerns.

In contrast to the mostly quantitative data obtained from the interviews with sex workers, the interviews with counsellors were of a qualitative nature and allowed a more nuanced understanding of the complexities surrounding sex work and sexual exploitation across the German-French border.

Limitations and Difficulties

Initially, our plan had been to reach out to sex workers through health organisations that counsel them on a regular basis. However, we faced major obstacles to that. These organisations work for a long time to establish trust between them and this vulnerable and often stigmatised part of society. For this reason, they were very hesitant to arrange any contact between us and the sex workers they counsel. Research and health experts have repeatedly shown how hard it is to detect whether or not a sex worker is the victim of human tracking. It often takes social workers a long time of counselling until a sex worker decides to open up about the reasons that led them to pursue sex work.

For this reason, the options of gathering data were few, and sex workers had to be approached during their working time in brothels or street prostitution areas. This, in turn, caused several difficulties.

First, it highlighted the lack of resources at our disposal. Approaching subjects in the field is one of the most costly methods, particularly when dealing with a hidden population such as this. Whatever information we would be able to gather would not necessarily provide a representative sample of answers.

Second, whether in the context of a brothel or on the street, sex workers usually have a limited time in which they actually earn money. In most cases, street prostitution is not only limited to certain streets, but also to certain times of the day. For instance, in Saarbrucken, it is only allowed between 10 pm and 6 am. As for brothels, sex workers generally have to pay high rents for a limited number of hours there. Considering that we could not offer financial compensation for the interviews, many women felt disturbed by the request, even if it took only 10 minutes, as it could mean the loss of a potential client.

Third, most women working as sex workers often hide their occupation from friends and family members. When working, they generally use other names, thereby enacting the role of their sex worker persona. This makes it harder from a research perspective to ask questions that might touch upon their more private experiences outside their role as a sex worker. For instance, the probability of finding a robust indicator of their real-life satisfaction or health may be rather low.

Fourth, when visiting brothels, there was another complication that emerged for the researcher- in-field. Most people who go to brothels want to be guaranteed privacy. This, however, can be disturbed if it becomes clear that an observer who is not part of the milieu is in the brothel. For this reason, most attempts to talk to prostitutes within brothels failed.

Lastly, a major limitation in the data gathering process was the language barrier between us and many sex workers. The lacking language skills were an important indicator to understand that these women were less likely to have spent a long time in Germany. However, it also made it difficult to ensure that they understood the questions posed in the survey. In some cases, sex workers with better German skills translated on behalf of their colleagues, which in turn may have caused some inaccuracies.

Findings

On sex work conditions and the impact of changes in prostitution law in France
By surveying sex workers, we could not find any evidence for our working hypothesis. The change of the French prostitution law did not seem to increase the number of French people coming to Germany to buy sex. From the interviews with sex workers that we carried out, all but one assessed the number to be the same, while the last one, based in Offenburg, stated that there had been an increase in tourism from France. Neither had there been any noticeable difference in the number of customers from any of the countries listed in our questionnaire: the US, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, and Russia.

A possible reason for this seemingly minimal change in the influx of French customers was suggested by a health expert working both in France and in Germany with sex workers. According to her, there had been very few cases of prosecution of prostitution customers despite in France the law (Kehl/Straßburg BE0009). This can be disputed though, as the Coalition Against Prostitution (2017) reported that 937 sex buyers were arrested in the first year following the implementation of the law, rising to 4000 by early 2019 according to the Fondation Scelles (2019). Where most of these arrests have happened is not disclosed though. If there are geographical differences across France, it could mean that there are regions in France, possibly bordering Germany, where it may still be safe enough for sex buyers not feeling the need to go elsewhere. Should that be the case, then it could be a reason why no increase in the German sex work market can be detected.

Asked about more general changes taking place since 2016, sex workers and health experts reported that the economic conditions for prostitutes had worsened considerably. Five out of the 17 sex workers, based in different cities, reported that prices for their services had dropped. According to them, this was related to two recent developments within the market. Firstly, more and more women from Eastern European countries such as Bulgaria and Romania were working as sex workers. Considering the comparatively low salaries in these countries, these sex workers tend to be more willing to compete by lowering their prices. Secondly, according to sex workers, customers claim to have less money and thus bargain more.

From the questions posed on our questionnaire, we are unable to clearly identify whether the prices had been falling since 2016 or if it is a continuation of a more long-term trend. Although several women indicated that the decline in prices was recent, those who did had only worked for less than five years.

When responding to questions regarding health and overall life satisfaction, half of the interviewed sex workers claimed that they felt completely safe while working, against almost a quarter that did not. Looking more closely at the ten sex workers that said they had been working in milieu for at least five years, just three of them claimed to feel safe. Therefore, it seems that sex workers who have worked longer in the milieu feel less confident about their safety.

Overall, the sex workers who worked predominantly in the context of street prostitution reported feeling less safe, and also a lower overall life satisfaction, than those in brothels. When asked about their personal health, no sex worker reported to be unwell, but six of them refused to answer this question.

Counsellor Inputs

Migratory flows from Eastern Europe
Many of the counsellors we interviewed seemed to agree that the total number of active sex workers did not necessarily differ since the implementation of the ProstG in 2002. However, those who had been working in the field for many years said they had noticed the proportion of foreign-born prostitutes rising significantly with the implementation of the 2001 law. All but two of the seven counsellors we interviewed estimated that the share of non-German sex workers was above 50 per cent. Those of the other view still believed it to be above a quarter. An earlier policy report by the Institute for East and Southeast European Studies from August 2015 confirmed this belief (Petrungaro and Selezneva, 2015). The fact that most of our counsellors found prostitutes to be majority non-German corresponds with earlier findings that showed this share for female sex workers rising from 52% in 1999 to 63% in 2008 (TAMPEP, 2008).

What they did all agree on, however, was that Eastern Europe was the most common background of foreign sex workers, which is also the case in the data we gathered. More specifically, women from Bulgaria and Romania form a majority within the group of sex workers in Germany who recently took up this profession. Women from Asian countries, such as Thailand, as well as from Latin America were observed to be the second-largest group of people working as sex workers by counsellors. Though, they were far fewer than their Eastern European colleagues. For example, in Strasbourg the most frequent nationality among sex workers was Bulgarian (Straßburg/Kehl, BE0004). Around Saarbrucken, we got to talk predominantly to Romanian and Bulgarian sex workers.

Our survey of sex workers indicated that the high share of Bulgarian and Romanian sex workers was to be found especially in street prostitution contexts. In brothels, we found a more diverse ethnic composition (Saarbrucken, BE0003). Some counsellors, for instance, one in Kehl, claimed that this shift towards more and more women from Bulgaria and Romania is strongly correlated with the incorporation of Eastern European countries in the EU. For sex workers, this meant that they were particularly vulnerable in the transition phase that new member states had to go through after becoming an EU member but before being allowed unrestricted freedom of movement, as they were not eligible for the protections in the 2002 German law (Kehl/Straßburg, BE0009).

According to a counsellor working with sex workers in Trier, the socio-economic background of sex workers from Romania and Bulgaria varies. Some of the women are students in their home countries and thus highly qualified in the labour market. They often work in rather high-priced brothels. At the same time, there are also women who are living under very poor conditions (Trier, BE0008).

A further finding from our interviews was in contrast to a common belief that sex workers migrate to Germany. Counsellors reported that it is very common for sex workers to have a permanent base in their origin country and only travel to Germany, as well as Austria and Switzerland, in order to earn a living and support their families for shorter periods (Trier, BE0008). There are some women, however, who do not have the know-how to organise their own trips, and thus, stay at one place for longer and end up settling down in Germany (Trier, BE0008). Often, the families and close acquaintances back home know little about the occupation of the women.

From the interviews, we got to understand more about the mobility of sex workers. Sex workers that come to Germany commonly also travel throughout the country to pursue work. This makes them different from domestic sex workers, who are usually based in one place and do not travel around far away to pursue work. According to a social worker in Dortmund (BE0006), the police refers to the high mobility of foreign prostitutes within German borders as ‘prostitution tourism.’

Our survey showed a certain (albeit weak) relationship between sex workers’ country of origin and the number of years they had been working in Germany. Of the 17 respondents, those who stated to have worked in Germany for less than 3 years were exclusively Romanian and Bulgarian nationals. The over-representation of Romanian nationals also strengthens the view that it is among the most dominant origin countries in the current German prostitution market. For Bulgaria, our survey did not have a similar over-representation.

In Saarbrucken, counsellors reported that with the change of the visa-rules for Ukraine, more and more Ukranian women started working as sex workers in and surrounding Saarbrucken. However, according to one counsellor, none of them showed indications of being victims of human tracking (BE0003). In the tracking data from the BKA, there was an uptick in the number of Ukrainian victims in 2016, 22 compared to 2 for 2015. However, for the most recent report, Ukraine did not feature and we are therefore unable to say what the situation is like now.

Origin Countries of Victims
Of the information that we could gather from our interviews, there were some things that stood out to us. Repeatedly, Eastern Europe and West Africa were mentioned as the primary origins of tracking victims. Particularly one country was mentioned repeatedly: Nigeria.

One of our counsellors in Saarbrucken noted that women from Nigeria were more likely to be victims of human tracking. To get from Nigeria to Germany is generally rather difficult and they are therefore more exposed to be exploited by trackers (Saarbrucken, BE0003). In Freiburg we met with another counsellor who also emphasised the plight of Nigerian women, going so far as to say that since the refugee crisis, human tracking patterns have changed and Nigerian sex workers in Germany are mostly always victims of human tracking (Freiburg, BE0007). A counsellor working in Kehl and Strassbourg also noted how the refugee crisis has been used to bring vulnerable women from Nigeria to Germany. Summarising, it seems to be the case that the poorer the country, the more likely it is that the woman you encounter in this milieu is a victim of human tracking (Kehl/Straßburg BE0009).

In Dortmund, one counsellor noted that West African (and Nigerian) women have often been tracked elsewhere too (Dortmund, BE0006). A fellow counsellor working in Kehl and Strassbourg gave a similar account. Probably throughout the refugee crisis, women from non-EU states have been particularly over-represented. This does not mean that there are not any EU-citizens who are victims of human tracking, but right now, the biggest stream of human tracking victims are Nigerian women, who usually apply for asylum in Germany. They have come from Nigeria, often through Libya, then to Italy, and further on to other EU states. Once they reach Germany, some seem to attempt to save themselves from further exploitation, but sometimes they remain under the control of their trackers (Kehl/Straßburg BE0009).

In Heilbronn, one expert was keen to also discuss the German victims of tracking, who according to BKA statistics made up around a quarter of all victims. These usually fall prey to a partner who uses the ‘lover boy method’ making a woman, or usually young girl, fall in love with him and later forcing her into prostitution (Heilbronn, BE0002).

Changing characteristics of human tracking in Germany over time
In Saarbrucken, one counsellor also noted how the nature of human tracking has changed over the past 10–15 years, with trackers becoming more and more subtle. Where they before were much more violent towards their victims, they seem to have adopted strategies in order to hide the signs of violence and tracking better and instead apply more psychological violence. According to this person, it is also increasingly common for a family member or partner to be involved in the tracking. Overall, the lines drawn between prostitution and human tracking appear to become increasingly blurry and hard to detect. It makes it more difficult for victims to identify themselves as such, and in turn complicates legal processes as it is sometimes hard to prove whether a person working as a prostitute did it voluntarily or under coercion (Saarbrucken, BE0003).

As for the trend in human tracking, there appear to be differing opinions. In Heilbronn, one counsellor reported the number of cases rising. However, it is difficult to say if this is a reflection of an actual increase or of heightened awareness among the general public with the influx of West Africans (Heilbronn, BE0002). In Trier, however, the situation was perceived to have improved slightly, with one counsellor (BE0008) noting that stricter laws seem to lower the number of cases of human tracking.

Conclusion

Though interlinked, it is important that prostitution and human tracking for sexual exploitation are not associated by default. There are many sex workers that have practised their profession free from any undue influence by a third party. However, there is undoubtedly an abundance of evidence showing that this is not always the case. For the past few decades, however, policymakers have been attempting novel legislative approaches to create a clear delineation between these two phenomena.

The initiative behind this report was the interest in legislation introducing asymmetric punishment. As has been described above, the Nordic model’s approach in which only the party purchasing sex is committing an offence applies a similar sort of mechanism to the market for prostitution. Though this topic has been covered before, it still represents an area of rather novel research. Generating broad-brush findings applicable to all settings is unlikely, but findings that are relevant and robust for a specific time and place might be obtainable with the right methodology.

The introduction of new regulations regarding prostitution in France was therefore of great interest, as the proximity to other countries, especially Germany, where sex work has been a legal profession since 2002, could mitigate the issues on finding good data. The outset of our research efforts was a belief, now in hindsight perhaps rather naive, that data would be more readily available in the German regulationist institutional setting.

As was later discovered, data availability was an issue there too. Recent legislative efforts, namely the 2017 ProstSchG, might amend the most pressing concerns. However, it is more than likely that outright criminal activities are being perpetuated within the scope of a regulated market for sex. Finding methods that accurately track the effects of this law is an area of crucial research. In futures studies on this topic, remaining aware of unrelated events and changes that might possibly affect this policy is important. For larger countries, differences within a country also need to be considered. In the case of Germany, the federal structure allows Bundeslander to adopt slightly different policies.

We were not able to identify robust indicators that suggest a changing inflow of customers from France to Germany after the 2016 neo-abolitionist law in France. Assuming that the law has not been implemented and enforced sufficiently, this may also raise a question that affects the scope of this report. For instance, one may ask whether the ‘Nordic model’ of prostitution policy is easily implemented in different countries disregarding the cultural, institutional and social characteristics that originally brought it about and if it is reasonable to expect similar outcomes in each setting. Investigating which characteristics are important would improve any future changes of this kind elsewhere.

We can, however, confidently argue for additional research on cross-country sex work, as well as on the working conditions and financial situations those operating within the milieu face. Though we were unable to establish robust evidence on the interplay between sex work and human tracking, we were repeatedly told that general flows of migrant workers temporary working in Germany, mostly from Eastern Europe, affect conditions within the milieu. In this regard, sex work differs little from other business sectors that report similar concerns. This issue was particularly significant for street workers, especially since they already (and possibly because of this) reported to feel much less safe than those working in brothels.

On a practical level, our attempt to survey sex workers taught us just how difficult it is to gain the trust needed to obtain information from sex workers. Since prostitutes are only identifiable while they are working, remaining cautious of not being perceived as contributing to the experienced stigma sex workers face is imperative. For those not working in brothels and Laufhauser, there are generally also rather strict restrictions in place for when and where they may operate. Regardless of setting though, there tend to be time pressures whilst at work, meaning many approached to answer questions will decline that request. Building a dataset of any significant size will, therefore, require significant time and resources.

Having spent significant time working on this project, we have few clear-cut answers to give. Prostitution and human tracking may be intertwined. However, how they correlate and the causal relations between them remains a perplexing matter. By talking to people working in and around the milieu and improving the availability of data, the general understanding can be greatly improved. For instance, through the interviews we conducted in late 2017 with counsellors providing support to sex workers in Germany, the uptick in 2018 of detected Nigerian victims of human tracking for sexual exploitation was in part foreseen. This highlights the need for better and more data, as well as research covering sex work and human tracking so that both topics can be addressed appropriately and more effectively in the future.

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The Political Economics of Long Run Development in Eastern Europe: Insights from the 2019 SITE Academic Conference

Roller coaster photographed from below symbolising Eastern Europe transition

Thirty years after the fall of communism, many assume that the economic transition of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet States towards a system of market economy is complete. But the region faces new challenges, of both economic and political kind, which renders a thorough understanding the past even more important. This policy brief is based on the scientific contributions presented at the 7th SITE Academic Conference held at the Stockholm School of Economics from December 16th to December 17th, 2019. Organized by the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), the conference brought together academics from all over Europe and the United States to share and discuss their research on economic and political development in Eastern Europe.

The Imperial and Soviet Periods

In the first section of the conference, papers with a focus on the long-term history of Eastern Europe and its implications for more recent events were presented. Marvin Suesse presented his research on how the Russian State Bank financed Tsarist Russia´s belated industrialization, a question that had been discussed by historians, but never thoroughly analyzed quantitatively. By geo-coding historical manufacturing censuses around the turn of the century and using distance between bank branches and factory location, the causal impact of the expansion of the State Bank is estimated, revealing large effects on firm revenues and productivity. These effects are largest in areas where alternative means of financing were least available and where human capital was more abundant.

Natalya Naumenko presented her findings on the economic consequences of the 1933 Soviet famine, which in terms of casualties was extremely devastating. She uses the meteorological conditions a year earlier as an instrumental variable and finds that the famine, which was mostly a rural phenomenon, had a persistent negative effect on the urban population while the rural population recovered relatively quickly.

Gerhard Toews discussed the long-term consequences on regional development of the displacement of an estimated 3 million “enemies of the people”, political prisoners typically belonging to the elite of the society, into the gulags in the early years of the Soviet Union. Using archival data, he has constructed a large database describing the gulag population in terms of the shares of “enemies” relative to other prisoners and taking into account their socio-economic characteristics i.e. the much higher levels of education of the former group. Exploiting variation within gulags, the results suggest that a historically higher density of “enemies” means higher economic prosperity today as measured by nightlight intensity.

Taking another angle, Christian Ochsner investigated the effects of the Red Army´s occupation on post-war Europe, using the demarcation line crossing the Austrian state of Styria as a natural experiment. His conclusion is that even the temporary occupation affected the region’s long-term development, the main channel being age-specific migration.

Finally, Andreas Stegman offered an analysis of the effects of the 1972 East German Extended Visitors Program. The program reduced travel restrictions for West German visitors traveling to certain districts of East Germany. Using a geographic regression discontinuity design comparing similar districts with and without the program, he shows that included districts indeed received much more visits from West Germany and that their citizens were more likely to protest against the Communist government and less likely to vote for the ruling party. This suggests that face-to-face interaction can influence beliefs and attitudes in non-democratic regimes, in turn influencing individual behavior and societal outcomes during transition.

Corruption, Conflict and Public Institutions

Another topic of the conference was the current role of corruption, conflict, electoral fraud and public sector effectiveness for the region. Scott Gehlbach presented his most recent research on the ownership patterns and strategies of Ukrainian oligarchs before and after the Orange revolution. By mapping oligarchs to changing political leadership, he shows how firm owners in Ukraine take actions to protect their property depending on their connections with the current government. He finds that obfuscation of ownership behind holding companies and complicated structures is a potentially valuable strategy in this environment in general but becomes particularly important when an oligarch loses direct connections to the ruling regime.

Likewise, Timothy Frye analyzed election subversion by employers in Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey and Nigeria. He finds that in Russia, public sector employers and especially state-owned firms are more likely to influence their employees’ decision to vote than private companies. Furthermore, work place mobilization by employers in Russia is clearly negatively associated with the freedom of the press. Election subversion is more likely to be successful when the degree of dependence of the employee is high and the employer’s potential threats are credible. Among Russian firm officials, the most frequently named motivations for them to practice election subversion are the desire to improve their relationship with the authority and the intention to help their party.

Michal Myck studied the impact of the transition experience on economic development around the Polish-German border. Polish communities close to the border were economically backward at the beginning of the transition but could potentially benefit from trade opportunities with an opening towards the West. Using similar methods to those of Stegman above, and nightlight intensity as a measure of economic activity as for instance Toews, Myck finds significant evidence for economic convergence both between Germany and Poland, and between Polish border regions and the rest of Poland.

Vasily Korovkin presented his research on the impact of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine on trade in non-conflict areas in Ukraine, hypothesizing that the conflict may cause a trade diversion away from Russia, particularly so in areas with many ethnic Ukrainians. Using variation in the share of the Russian speaking population at the county level as well as detailed firm level export and import data, he finds that the decrease in trade with Russia is negatively correlated with the share of the Russian speaking population. Potential mechanisms include a decline in trust at the firm level and changes in local attitudes including consumer boycotts.

Finally, Tetyana Tyshchuk analyzed the effects of a Ukrainian public sector reform on civil servants’ capacity and autonomy. The reform created public policy directorates parallel to the regular bureaucracy in 10 ministries. Members of the directorates were hired based on a different procedure and different merits relative to regular public servants and received significantly higher salaries.  Tyshchuk finds that the better paid civil servants indeed score higher on many, though not all, indicators of capacity and autonomy.

Information, Populism and Authoritarianism Today

The final important theme of the conference was the role of information and media, old and new, in today’s politics. In the event´s first keynote speech, Ruben Enikolopov analyzed the political effects of the Internet and social media whose low entry barriers and reliance on user-generated content make them decisively different from traditional media channels. On the one hand, this represents a chance for opposition leaders and whistleblowers to make their voice heard and may improve government accountability. On the other, these media may also become a platform for extremists. Enikolopov presented some of his work analyzing to what extent social media has contributed to fighting corruption in Russia. Using the timings of blog posts by the famous Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny on corporate governance violations in state-owned companies, he shows that revelations resulted in an immediate drop in the price of the traded shares of the respective companies. He also finds evidence suggesting that Navalny´s blog posts resulted in management changes in these companies. In related papers, he exploits the spread of VKontakte (VK), the Russian version of Facebook, to better understand the influence of social networks on political activism, voting and the occurrence of hate crime. He finds that the spread of VK is indeed causally related to political protests, though not because it nurtures opposition to the government, but rather because it facilitates protest co-ordination. With respect to hate crime, he finds that social media only has an effect in areas where it falls on fertile grounds and where there already are high levels of nationalism. The tentative conclusion is that in Russia – as in Western countries – social media seems to have increased political polarization.

On a similar topic but taking a more theoretical approach, Galina Zudenkova investigated the link between information and communication technologies (ICT), regime contestation and censorship. In a game theoretical framework, where citizens use ICT both to learn about the  competency of the government and to coordinate protests, governments can use different tools to censor information to increase their chances of survival. Zudenkova finds that less competent regimes are more likely to censor coordination, whereas intermediate regimes are more likely to focus on censoring content. These theoretical predictions are then tested using country level data.

The targeted use of information has also played a key role in Putin’s Russia according to Daniel Treisman. In his keynote speech, he argued that while the 20th century dictatorships were mainly based on violence and ideology, the 21st century has been characterized by a sizeable shift towards what he calls “informational autocracy”. Constructing a dataset on the methods used by authoritarian regimes to maintain power between 1946 and 2015, he shows that the use of torture and violence peaked among those dictators who took power in the 1980s and has declined since. Furthermore, he highlights a remarkable shift from topics of violence towards topics of economic competency in dictators’ speeches. However, Treisman finds that by instrumentalizing information, dictators fool the public “but not the elite”. In democratic regimes, those with tertiary education tend to rate their political leaders higher than people without tertiary education. In the new informational authoritarian regime, the opposite seems to be the case. According to Treisman, this is because the “informed elite” has a better understanding of the political reality in places where the media is censored, Putin’s Russia being a good example. Treisman concluded that this new model of authoritarianism has become the prevalent model outside of Europe and today also has its advocates inside the European Union.

The conference ended with a final keynote speech by Sergei Guriev on the political economy of populism. Using existing definitions, he first confirmed that Europe has seen a rise in right-wing populism in the last 20 years. Secular trends, such as globalization and new communication technology, but also the recent global financial crisis, are driving factors behind the rise of populist parties. For instance, analyzing regional variation in voting patterns suggests that the Brexit vote was primarily driven by economic motives rather than by anti-immigrant sentiments. Ironically, though, most evidence suggests that populist governments have a below-average economic performance once in office, the US and Poland being notable exceptions. A key point of Guriev’s presentation was that populism seems to be a good method to obtain power, but, once in power, populists tend to be less successful in promoting citizen welfare. These findings seem to be of high importance given the increasing public support for populist parties around the world and in parts of Eastern Europe

The conference was very well received and on behalf of SITE, the authors would like to express their appreciation to all speakers and participants for sharing their knowledge and to Riksbankens Jubileumsfond for financial support. For those interested to learn more about the papers summarized very briefly above, please visit the conference website and the presenters’ websites as indicated in the text and here below.

Speakers at the Conference

Andreas Stegman, briq – Institute on Behavior and Inequality

Christian Ochsner, CERGE-EI and University of Zurich

Daniel Treisman, University of California, Los Angeles

Galina Zudenkova, TU Dortmund University

Gerhard Toews, New Economic School Moscow

Marvin Suesse, Trinity College

Michal Myck, CenEA

Natalya Naumenko, George Mason University

Ruben Enikolopov, New Economic School Moscow

Scott Gehlbach, University of Chicago

Sergei Guriev, Sciences Po Paris

Tetyana Tyshchuk, Kyiv School of Economics

Timothy Frye, Columbia University

Vasily Korovkin, CERGE-EI

Economics of Childbearing and Pronatalist Policies

Shadow on the wall with a family of three people representing current economics of childbearing

The brief opens a series of FROGEE Policy Briefs aimed at providing overviews and the popularization of economic research related to gender equality issues. The current brief introduces the general rationale behind fertility decisions and policy interventions. It summarizes the economic literature on the effects of different types of policy interventions on enhancing childbearing. The brief is followed by country reports presenting country-specific contexts, various policy challenges, implemented reforms and a discussion of other policy options covering childbearing.

Country Reports

Belarus country report (EN) Belarussian language version (BY)
Georgia country report (EN) Georgian language version (GE)
Latvia country report (EN) Latvian language version (LV)
Poland country report (EN) Polish language version (PL)
Russia country report (EN) Russian language version (RU)
Ukraine country report (EN) Ukrainian language version (UA)

Introduction to Economics of Childbearing

From an economic point of view, there are several potential reasons why public policy interventions concerning fertility may be beneficial for society and why – when left without support – decisions of parents might be suboptimal from the social point of view. In order to better understand these, one must first consider the intuition behind the theoretical economic approach to family relations in general and to fertility decisions in particular, much of which draws on the seminal contributions of Gary Becker (Becker & Lewis 1973; Becker & Tomes 1976).

In economics, goods are any real objects that satisfy people’s needs and typically come at some cost. Becker’s approach to the family extends this reasoning to human relations and presents decisions on partnership, divorce and family formation in the context of ‘economic’ trade-offs between costs and benefits. Since having children is associated with considerable costs (both in terms of money and time) as well as gains in a number of dimensions, the decision to have a child can be formulated as an economic decision. However, viewed from this perspective, the choice to have children turns out to be special in several dimensions.

Negative Income-Fertility Relationship and Low Fertility

One of the most robust observations regarding fertility is that – in contrast to many other types of expenditures – there is a strong negative association between earnings and the number of children (Figure 1). This negative income-fertility relationship has been observed in every developed nation, both when examined over time in relation to income growth and when looked at in a cross- country comparisons (see Jones et al. 2011). Figure 2 shows this relationship in a broad macro perspective: historically, as the world’s per capita GDP has grown fertility rates have tended to decline.

There are several potential drivers behind the above relationship. Two of the most established explanations are opportunity cost and quality- quantity trade-off, and they relate to several special features of the costs and benefits of having a child and the very nature of the family.

Figure 1. The relationship between total fertility rate and GDP per capita

Figure 1. The relationship between total fertility rate and GDP per capita

Source: World Bank.

Figure 2. Trends in total fertility rate by region, 1950-2050.

Figure 2. Trends in total fertility rate by region, 1950-2050.

Source: World Bank.

Money and Time Costs

A rather unique property of family formation is that costs related to childbearing are expressed both in terms of money and time. Because of the latter, high-earning parents face higher opportunity costs of the time necessary to raise a child. This might not only contribute to the aforementioned negative fertility-income relationship but has also been shown as one of the main reasons behind low fertility in developed countries. One of the most common policies used to increase fertility is money transfers which come in the form of family allowances, baby bonuses or tax credits. According to the UN Population Facts, at least 96% of developed nations have this type of policy. OECD countries, on average, spend around 4% of their GDP on this kind of assistance and the average effect of such interventions has been estimated to increase the total fertility rate (TFR) by 0.08 – 0.35 (Luci-Greulich & Thevenon 2011). The main reason why one needs to spend a lot of money to gain a relatively small increase in TFR is that low fertility is a «first world» problem, i.e. most of the targeted individuals are not bounded by the monetary costs of a child.

Policies that take the time-cost of children into account promise a higher potential effect in developed countries. For example, Raute (2019) uses German data to find an 18% increase in fertility among women with earnings above the median after the introduction of earnings- dependent paid maternity leave policy.

Quality — Quantity Trade-off

In economics, the idea that education, health and other factors increase human productivity and potential is conceptualized in a notion of “quality of human capital”. As the return on investment in human capital rises, parents may choose to have fewer children and focus their time and financial ‘investments’ in their quality. Some of the most convincing evidence on the strength of the quality- quantity trade-off was revealed using the data on twin births and on family sizes by Hanushek (1992) and Li et al. (2008).

Cultural Norms

Relatively recent research on the determinants of fertility has documented the substantial and persistent influence of cultural norms on fertility. This is reflected in the variation of fertility levels within countries among people of similar financial status, but coming from different cultural backgrounds. For example fertility levels among immigrants in the developed world tend to resemble those in their countries of origin (see, e.g. Beach & Hanlon 2019, Families and Societies 2015), and while cultural norms change and can also be affected by the policy environment (Bassi & Rasul 2017), there tends to be a substantial degree of time-dependence in how norms evolve and adjust.

Internal Costs and External Benefits

The last special feature of childbearing from an economic perspective is that although most of the costs in terms of time and money related to children are borne by parents, a large portion of future economic gains of an additional person is external to the family and benefits the wider society. When an adult enters the labor force, begins to produce goods and services for other people and pays taxes to the government, his or her parents would not be able to capture any significant portion of these benefits (Schoonbroodt & Tertilt 2014). From an economic perspective this suggests that the social value of children is higher than the private (parental) one. This situation is one of the main arguments for public policy intervention with regard to fertility. Whenever social benefits outweigh private benefits, subsidizing private choices may result in overall welfare improvements.

Fertility Enhancing Policies: What Works and What Doesn’t?

From the perspective of encouraging fertility, there is a wide range of options available to policymakers. On the one hand paid parental leave and subsidized childcare can mitigate the conflict between career and parenthood, while the introduction of paternal leave attempts at balancing out the time out of work between the two parents and at changing their allocation of time to childcare. On the other hand, child-related money transfers are aimed at reducing financial constraints on families who limit or postpone fertility because of their financial status.

In practice it is often hard to measure the effects of particular fertility-enhancing policies due to the lack of data and an absence of specific policy implementation designs, which would allow policy evaluation. However, there is evidence that fertility-enhancing policies can be successful in stimulating fertility. Luci-Greulich & Thevenon (2011) find that the most effective cash transfers are those targeted at the youngest children (aged 0-3), while those that are paid out around the birth appear to be less efficient. A number of studies prove the positive impact of transfers to families with children on fertility rates (d’Addio & d’Ercole 2005, Ermisch 1998, Milligan 2005, Whittington 1992, Whittington et al. 1990). Developments over the recent decades in Sweden are often used as an example of a successful family focused package, although given the multitude of different schemes running at the same time it is difficult to disentangle their specific implications (see Björklund 2006 for the evidence from Swedish policy reforms and Luci-Greulich & Thévenon 2013 for a broader overview of the existing research on fertility-enhancing policies).

Kalwij (2010) and Raute (2019) focus their attention on policies which alleviate career — parenthood trade-offs. Raute (2019) finds especially large effects of the adequate compensation of forgone earnings of high earning women (the author also contributes a comprehensive literature review of studies on the effects of alleviating the opportunity cost of children). Doepke and Kindermann (2016) complement these findings by providing evidence that fertility is especially responsive to policies that specifically reduce the childcare burden for women.

The evidence on the effects on fertility of another popular type of family policy, maternity leave, is less clear. Since most of the developed nations nowadays do have paid maternity leave, it is hard to measure the effect of its availability on the decision to have children. However, different durations of maternity leave across countries and changes in those durations allow economists to draw some conclusions. Although some researchers do find a positive effect of maternity leave duration (Adserà 2004), others fail to support this conclusion using different sources of data and experimental designs (d’Addio and d’Ercole 2005, Olivetti and Petrongolo 2017).

Concluding Remarks

A better understanding of the economic approach towards family formation and fertility can be helpful in thinking of a re-design of family-focused policy packages. It is beyond the scope of this brief to provide a full overview of the extensive body of economics research on this topic, but the evidence tends to suggest that a set of successful policy tools to encourage fertility is available. The basic concepts presented here can hopefully serve as background to a systematic and evidence-based discussion on public policy in this field. It should be noted that since parenthood is one of the most important choices in the life of many people, it is inherently related to many other individual choices and outcomes. Therefore, any policy aimed at increasing fertility will inevitably affect other important dimensions such as income inequality, taxation, gender equality, health and child development, among others. This means that any public intervention should always carefully consider its potential positive and negative side effects.

About FROGEE Policy Briefs

FROGEE Policy Briefs is a special series aimed at providing overviews and the popularization of economic research related to gender equality issues. Debates around policies related to gender equality are often highly politicized. We believe that using arguments derived from the most up to date research-based knowledge would help us build a more fruitful discussion of policy proposals and in the end achieve better outcomes.

The aim of the briefs is to improve the understanding of research-based arguments and their implications, by covering the key theories and the most important findings in areas of special interest to the current debate. The briefs start with short general overviews of a given theme, which are followed by a presentation of country-specific contexts, specific policy challenges, implemented reforms and a discussion of other policy options.

Income Inequality in Transition. New Results for Poland Combining Survey and Tax Return Data

20200113 Income Inequality in Transition FREE Policy Brief Image 01

We re-examine the evolution of income inequality in Poland in the process of post-socialist transition focusing on the previously neglected problem of under-coverage of top incomes in household survey data. Multiple statistical techniques (Pareto imputation, survey reweighting, and microsimulation methods) are applied to combined household survey and tax return data in order to obtain top-corrected inequality estimates. We find that the top-corrected Gini coefficient grew in Poland by 14-26% more compared to the unadjusted survey-based estimates. This implies that over the last three decades Poland has become one of the most unequal European countries among those for which top-corrected inequality estimates exist. The highest-income earners benefited the most during the post-socialist transformation: the annual rate of income growth for the top 5% of the population exceeded 3.5%, while the median income grew on average by about 2.5% per year. This brief summarizes the results presented in Brzezinski et al. (2019).

Introduction

There is a large economic literature documenting income inequality changes experienced by former communist countries during their post-1989 transformations. While in Russia and in many post-Soviet economies, inequality exploded during the transition, Poland is often perceived as a country where inequality grew rather moderately. However, these conclusions may be unreliable as they are based on inequality measures estimated using income data only from household surveys.

Many recent studies show that surveys are plagued by significant under-coverage of top incomes, which leads to a severe downward bias of the inequality estimates. Several approaches have been proposed to correct for this problem. One of them is to combine survey data with income information taken from administrative sources such as tax returns. While top-corrected inequality estimates have been produced for many advanced economies, transition countries received little attention in this context so far.

For Poland, Bukowski and Novokmet (2019) provided series of top income shares estimated using tax data. However, their estimates are constructed for gross (pre-tax) income distributed among tax units. This kind of income concept deviates considerably from the primary measure of the standard of living analysed in income distribution literature, namely disposable equivalized household income defined for the entire population. Estimates based only on tax data are not directly comparable to standard survey-based measures, which makes it difficult to decide which of the two kinds of results are closer to the underlying inequality trends and levels.

In a recent paper (Brzezinski, Myck, Najsztub 2019), we provide the first estimates of top-corrected inequality trends for real equivalized disposable incomes in Poland over the years 1994-2015. These estimates can be readily compared with standard survey-based estimates available from Statistics Poland or from Eurostat. Our analysis re-evaluates distributional consequences of post-socialist transition in Poland.

According to the standard view, the Polish transition to a market economy was an almost unqualified success story. Poland managed to achieve fast and stable economic growth (around 4.3% per year since 1994) that was at the same time broadly inclusive and shared rather equally by various social classes and segments of the income distribution. Survey-based estimates suggest that the Gini index for Poland has not increased significantly since 1989 and reached the average level among the EU countries in 2015. In contrast to the standard view, our top-corrected results show that the inequality of living standards in Poland grew sharply over 1989-2015. The adjusted Gini index grew by 4-8 p.p. to a level that ranks Poland among the most unequal European countries for which comparable estimates exist.

Data and Methods

We use data from two sources. Our survey income data comes from the representative Polish Household Survey (PHBS) conducted annually by Statistics Poland since 1957. We use the PHBS data for 1994-2015 as the pre-1994 surveys do not contain data on individual incomes (required for our microsimulation modelling) and 2015 is the last year for which estimates of tax-based inequality measures are available. We adjust the baseline PHBS survey weights to match the census-based number of males and females by age groups (population weights). We also create a further adjusted set of weights to match the number of PIT payers in each tax bracket according to the Polish tax scale (tax weights).

Our main income variable is real equivalent household disposable (post tax and transfer) income. We obtain it from the Polish microsimulation model SIMPL applied to the PHBS data. The microsimulation model allows us to construct a gross (before PIT and employee SSCs) income distribution among the tax units, which is unavailable in the raw PHBS data. This is crucial as it is the gross income distribution between tax units to which we impute top incomes estimated using tax-based statistics.

Our second data source is the series of tax-based top income shares for Poland taken from Bukowski and Novokmet (2019). To construct top-corrected inequality estimates, we follow the methodological approach of Bartels and Metzing (2019). Using the microsimulation model applied to the PHBS data we obtain the distribution of gross income among tax units (individuals). In the next step, we use data on top income shares to estimate the parameters of a Pareto distribution for gross income distribution in terms of tax units. Then, we replace the top 1% (or 5%) of tax units’ incomes with the incomes implied by the estimated Pareto distribution. The resulting imputed gross distribution is subsequently reweighted using either population or tax weights. After imputing top incomes, we again use the microsimulation approach to compute top-corrected real equivalized household net incomes.

Corrected Income Inequality Trends

Figure 1: The Gini index for Poland, 1994-2015: unadjusted vs top-corrected estimates

Note: Vertical lines show 95% confidence

Figure 1 presents our income inequality estimates in terms of the Gini coefficient. For the period 1994-2005, we present two top-corrected series, which can be considered as lower and upper bound estimates of the “true” Gini. The results for this period are more uncertain as they are affected by the 2004 tax reform in Poland that introduced an optional flat tax for non-agricultural business income, which reduced the marginal tax rate for the highest income taxpayers from 40% to 19%. Research suggests that before the reform the problems of tax evasion and avoidance could have been more pronounced in Poland and some of the top incomes were unreported or under-reported. The upper bound series on Figure 1 corrects for the possible higher tax evasion and avoidance before 2005.

The unadjusted Gini series suggests that income inequality in Poland was rather stable over 1994-2015.  On the other hand, our top-corrected series point to a very different story.  Until 2005, our two correction procedures show similar inequality trends, but somewhat different levels. After 2005, our corrected series shows systematic and high divergence between unadjusted and top-corrected Ginis ranging from 4 to 8 p.p. The top-corrected Ginis increase in the range from 14 to 26% over 1994-2015.  While according to the unadjusted data Poland is only moderately unequal, the comparison of top-corrected estimates shows that in 2015 Poland has higher level of income inequality than even high-inequality EU countries such as Germany, Spain or UK.

We also show that each percentile of the disposable income distribution in Poland saw income increases in absolute terms between 1994 and 2015. This implies that on average the incomes of all social groups increased during the transition to market economy. However, these gains were shared unequally. According to our adjusted estimates, the cumulative growth in real income over 1994-2015 for the top 1% of Poles reached 122-167%, while for the bottom 10% the corresponding number is at most 57%.

Redistribution and Progressivity of the Tax System

We also analyse how our correction procedures affect measures of redistribution and progressivity of direct taxation (income taxes, employees’ mandatory social security contributions, and health insurance). The top-corrected estimates show that the percentage reduction in the Gini index due to social insurance contributions and PIT has fallen from 19.2% in 1999 to 11.6% in 2015.

While the unadjusted series suggests that the progressivity of the Polish system of PIT and social insurance contributions has decreased only mildly over time, the top-corrected series points to a much steeper fall, especially during 2005-2009. Without the top-correction, the progressivity in 2015 is overestimated by 2.3 p.p. (or by 40%). Much of the decline in tax progressivity over 2005-2009 is due to the reduction from three PIT brackets and marginal tax rates to just two brackets and rates (18% and 32%) in 2009. Even in terms of the unadjusted data, Poland ranks in the recent years as the country with the lowest PIT and SICs progressivity in the EU.

Conclusion

Our recent paper on estimating the top-corrected measures of income inequality shows that while Poland was already a relatively unequal country in the early 1990s, it has become one of the most unequal European countries (not including Russia) among those for which comparable estimates exist. The results have important implications for the assessment of the distributional consequences of post-socialist transformations or modernization processes in emerging countries. They indicate that using income tax data and imputation or reweighting techniques to account for the problem of missing top incomes in survey data can significantly alter the conclusions about income inequality levels and trends. More reliable inequality estimates would contribute not only to a better understanding of economic transformation and modernization processes but could also shed some light on recent political turmoil in many transition and emerging countries (such as Turkey, Hungary or Poland). As suggested by some recent research, the growing distributional tensions in emerging countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia may be associated with more distrust in governments and an increased propensity to vote for radical political parties.

Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Polish National Science Centre (NCN) through project number: UMO-2017/25/B/HS4/01360. For the full list of acknowledgements see Brzezinski et al. (2019).

References

  • Bartels, C., Metzing, M. (2019). An integrated approach for a top-corrected income distribution. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 17(2), 125-143.
  • Brzezinski M., Myck M., Najsztub M. (2019), Reevaluating Distributional Consequences of the Transition to Market Economy in Poland: New Results from Combined Household Survey and Tax Return Data. IZA DP No. 12734.
  • Bukowski P., Novokmet F. (2019), Between Communism and Capitalism: Long-Term Inequality in Poland, 1892-2015. CEP Discussion Paper No 1628 June 2019.

From Partial to Full Universality: The Family 500+ Programme in Poland and Its Labour Supply Implications

20191216 From Partial to Full Universality FREE Network Policy Brief Image 01

The implementation of the ‘Family 500+’ programme in April 2016 represented a significant shift in public support for families with children in Poland. The programme guaranteed 500 PLN/month (approx. 120 euros) for each second and subsequent child in the family and the same amount for the first child in families with incomes below a specified threshold. As of July 2019, the benefit has been made fully universal for all children aged 0-17, an extension which nearly doubled its total cost and benefited primarily middle and higher income households. We examine the labour market implications of both the initial design and its recent fully universal version. Using the discrete choice labour supply model, we show that the initial Family 500+ benefits generated strong labour supply disincentives and were expected to result in the withdrawal of between 160-200 thousand women from the labour market. The recent removal of the means test is likely to nullify this negative effect, leading to an approximately neutral impact on labour supply. We argue that when spending over 4% of GDP on families with children, it should be possible to design a more comprehensive system of support, which would be more effective in reaching the joint objectives of low child poverty and high female employment combined with higher fertility rates.

Introduction

Following the 2015 parliamentary elections in Poland the ruling Law and Justice Party was quick to fulfill their campaign promise of implementing a generous quasi-universal family support programme. In April 2016, all families began receiving PLN 500 (approx. 120 euros) per month for each second and subsequent child, while households that passed an income means test were granted the same amount for their first or only child.  At a cost of nearly PLN 22 billion (5.2 billion euros, approx. 1.1% of GDP) per year, the Family 500+ benefit became the flagship reform of the Law and Justice government’s first term.

With new elections approaching in October this year, the government announced a significant expansion of the programme in May, which made it fully universal. The extended programme is nearly twice as expensive with an additional cost of PLN 18.3 billion (4.3 billion euros) per year, valuing the whole package at over 2% of GDP. This takes the total value of financial support for families with children, including family benefits and child-related tax breaks, to 4% of GDP and it means that as far as family support is concerned, the ruling party has brought Poland from one of the lowest-spending countries in the EU to one of the highest over the course of 4 years.

The initial design of the benefit had a significant impact on childhood poverty in Poland, with an absolute and relative decrease from 9.0 to 4.7 percent and 20.6 to 15.3 percent respectively between 2015 and 2017 (GUS, 2017). While a more targeted design could have made a far greater impact, these changes still reflect a significant improvement in the material situation of families with children. The policy may have also had a modest upward effect on fertility rates in the first years following its implementation, although this is difficult to assess given the parallel roll out of several other fertility-oriented policies and other changes which could have played a role in family decisions. Simultaneously, as argued in the ex-ante analysis by Myck (2016) and ex-post analysis by Magda et al. (2018), these positive outcomes came at the cost of reduced female labour market participation. This reduction primarily affected women with both lower levels of education and living outside of large urban areas (Myck and Trzciński, 2019).

The Family 500+ Reform: Design and Distributional Implications

The initial Family 500+ programme directed funds to 2.7 million families in addition to any already existing financial support and has been excluded from other means-tested support instruments.  Since families that had a net income of less than PLN 800 per month per person could receive the benefit for the first or only child, the policy had a distinct redistributive element and meant that  the bottom half of the income distribution received nearly 60% of the funds. However, the design was characterised by clear labour market disincentive effects, which were particularly strong for second earners and single parents.

In a one-child household (53.3 percent of families with children, GUS, 2016) with the first earner bringing in an income equivalent to 125% of the national minimum wage, the second earner needed only to earn PLN 940 per month in order for the family to cross the means test threshold and stop receiving the Family 500+ benefits. The benefit design is presented in Figure 1 in the form of budget constraints for the first earner (Case A) and the second earner (Case B) in a couple with one child. In the latter case the first earner is assumed to receive earnings equivalent to 125% of the minimum wage. The disincentive effects of the means test are clear in both cases and we can see that for the second earner, the benefit withdrawal comes at a very low income level – far below the national minimum wage of PLN 2100 per month. The “point withdrawal” of the benefit implied that it was enough for the family to marginally exceed the means test threshold for it to completely lose eligibility for the Family 500+ support for the first child.

The expansion of the Family 500+ programme, which came into effect in July 2019, eliminated the means-tested threshold thus making the policy fully universal. It came, however, at the cost of the redistributive character of the programme. Over 32% of the additional expenditure resulting from the universal character of the policy has been passed on to the top quintile of the income distribution and in its new version, the bottom half of households only receive 45 percent of all spending. The expansion of the programme is thus unlikely to further reduce child poverty significantly and – since its beneficiaries are mainly families with middle and high incomes – it is not expected to bring noticeable changes in fertility levels.

Figure 1: Family budget constraints for the first and second earner

Source: Authors’ calculations using the SIMPL microsimulation model.

Partial and Full Universality of the Family 500+ Programme and the Implications on Female Labour Supply

With the use of modelling tools to simulate the labour market response to changes in financial incentives to work, we have updated the initial simulations of Myck (2016) using the latest pre-reform data and examined the simulated labour supply decisions to the expanded fully universal programme, as if it were implemented instead of the initial version of the benefit. The analysis was conducted with data from the 2015 Polish Household Budget Survey, a detailed incomes and expenditure survey conducted annually by the Polish Central Statistical Office.

Table 1: Effects of the initial and the expanded Family 500+ programme on female labour supply

Results of the simulations are presented in Table 1. Simulations were conducted separately for single women, and under two scenarios for women in couples assuming that both partners adjust their behaviour (Model A) and that the labour market position of the male partner is unchanged (Model B).  The simulated labour supply response to the initial reform confirms the magnitude of earlier results and suggests an equilibrium effect of 160-200 thousand women leaving the labour force. This is also consistent with results presented by Magda et al. (2018), who found that female labour market participation decreased by approx. 100 thousand women after the policy had been in place for one year.

However, as we can see in the right-hand part of Table 1, the response to a fully universal design – modelled as if it was introduced in 2016 instead of the means-tested version – is essentially neutral. For single mothers the reduction is only about 3000, while for women in couples, the model suggests a small positive reaction under the Model A specification and a small negative one under Model B. In total, the universal design of Family 500+ benefits can be described as labour supply neutral. Since the reaction has been modelled on pre-reform data, and because some women have already withdrawn from the labour market after the introduction of the initial benefit design in 2016, the remaining uncertainty is whether the new set of incentives will motivate these mothers sufficiently to return to work.

Conclusion

The introduction and subsequent expansion, of the Family 500+ programme has substantially increased financial resources of families with children in Poland. The policy rollout of the initial, partially universal programme has seen substantial changes in the level of child poverty in Poland and may have contributed to a modest increase in fertility in the initial years following the introduction of the reform. The means-tested design of the benefit, however, incentivised a significant number of women to leave the labour market. One year after the introduction of the policy approximately 100,000 women were estimated to have left the labour market (Magda et al. 2018), while the equilibrium effect of the policy suggested long-run implications of over 200,000 (Myck, 2016). The updated simulation results using the latest available data suggest slightly lower, though still substantial equilibrium implications of the initial partially universal design of the Family 500+ programme in the range of between 160,000-200,000. However, as we show in our latest analysis, these labour market consequences could be reversed after the expansion of the programme to a fully universal set-up. The simulated effects of the universal design of the programme, which has been in place in Poland since July 2019, modelled as if it was implemented instead of the initial means-tested version, are broadly neutral for female labour supply. The only question is how likely the mothers who left employment in response to the initial policy will return to work given the new set of financial incentives. Considering these positive implications of the fully universal programme, one has to bear in mind that the extended programme, which will cost over PLN 40 bn per year (approx. 2% of GDP), is unlikely to contribute to the other key objectives set by the government, namely reducing child poverty and increasing fertility. Including the Family 500+ programme, the Polish government currently spends about 4% of GDP on direct financial support for families with children. Given the design of the policies which make up this family package, it seems that the joint objectives of higher fertility, reduced poverty and higher female employment could be achieved more effectively under a reformed structure of support that would be better targeted at poorer households, include specific employment incentives, and incorporate support for childcare, early education and long-term care.

Acknowledgements

This brief summarizes the results presented in Myck and Trzciński (2019). The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Sida, through the FROGEE project. For the full list of acknowledgements see Myck and Trzciński (2019).

References

  • Goraus, K. and G. Inchauste (2016), “The Distributional Impact of Taxes and Transfers in Poland”, Policy Research Working Paper 7787, World Bank.
  • GUS (2016), “Działania Prorodzinne w Latach 2010-2015, Główny Urząd Statystyczny Polish Central Statistical Office, Warsaw.
  • GUS (2017), “Zasięg ubóstwa ekonomicznego w Polsce w 2017r.”, Główny Urząd Statystyczny – Polish Central Statistical Office, Warsaw.
  • Magda, I., A. Kiełczewska, and N. Brandt (2018), “The Effects of Large Universal Child Benefits on Female Labour Supply”, IZA Discussion Paper No. 11652, IZA-Bonn.
  • Myck, M. (2016), “Estimating Labour Supply Response to the Introduction of the Family 500+ Programme”, Working Paper 1/2016, CenEA. Jacobson, L., LaLonde, R. and Sullivan, D. (1993). “Earnings losses of displaced workers”, American Economic Review, 83, pp. 685–709.
  • Myck, M. and Trzciński, K. (2019) “From Partial to Full Universality: The Family 500+ Programme in Poland and its Labor Supply Implications”, Ifo DICE report 3 / 2019.

Can Loose Macroeconomic Policies Secure a ‘Growth Injection’ for Belarus?

20191209 Can Loose Macroeconomic Policies Secure a Growth FREE Network Policy Brief Image 01

After a relatively long period of macroeconomic stabilization, Belarus faces the threat of a purposeful deviation from it. However, today there is no room for a ‘growth injection’ by means of monetary policy. Moreover, Belarus still suffers from a problem of unanchored inflation expectations. This prevents monetary policy from being effective and powerful. So, unless inflation expectations have been anchored, any discussion about reshaping monetary policy and making it ‘pro-growth’ is meaningless.

Policy Mix and Macroeconomic Landscape in Belarus

Since 2015, Belarus has considerably improved the quality of its macroeconomic policies. The country has fallen back upon a floating exchange rate, and feasible monetary and fiscal rules. This change followed a long history of voluntary expansionary policy mixes associated with numerous episodes of huge inflation, currency crises, etc.

Due to the new policy mix, the country has been displaying a movement towards macro stability in recent years. For instance, the external position is close to being balanced, the fiscal position has even become positive, while the inflation rate is at historical lows around 5%. For Belarus, these achievements are important, taking in mind a ‘fresh memory’ of price and financial instability. Hence, until recently there were no doubts in the feasibility of the commitments of Belarusian authorities to sound macroeconomic policies.

However, despite a relatively strong macroeconomic performance, the threat of a purposeful and at least temporary deviation from policy commitments seems to strengthen. What is important is that this time, popular simple explanations – e.g. political voluntarism (Belarus will have presidential elections in 2020), a naïve perception of economic policy mechanisms by authorities, etc. – are not sufficient for understanding the phenomenon. Rounds of loosening economic policies tend to be justified as ‘lesser evils’. Exploring some rationality in such a justification requires more insight into the Belarusian macroeconomic landscape.

In recent years, the lack of productivity and output growth has become more evident: in 2015-2019 the average output growth rate has been around 0. The root of the problem is the deficit in productivity and growth (Kruk & Bornukova, 2014; Kruk, 2019), while the rules-based policy mix just uncovered it.

However, this direction of causation tends to be challenged by some policy-makers. In an ’archaic’ manner, the policy mix is accused of blocking any pro-output policy discretion, even if there is a justification for it. For instance, an ‘extra’ need for a ‘growth injection’ may be justified by social challenges. Poor growth in Belarus results in a rather sensitive squeezing of relative levels of well-being in comparison to neighboring countries. Between 2012 and 2019, the well-being shrank from around 78% of the average level in 11 CEE countries down to about 63%. This intensified the labour outflow significantly, including for those employed in socially important industries, say, in healthcare. So, according to this view, the ‘growth injection’ is a lesser evil rather than systemic social threat.

A more advanced ‘accusation’ of the new policy mix assumes that it either causes a too restrictive stance of monetary policy with respect to output or that it ignores complicated transmission channels. For instance, one may argue that too much emphasis on price and financial stability can actually result in undermining them, given the huge debt burden of Belarusian firms. The quality of a considerable portion of the debts in Belarus tends to be sensitive to output growth rates. Hence, according to this argumentation, the monetary policy rule should be ‘more pro-growth’, reflecting the debt-growth-financial stability linkage inside it.

‘Translating’ this policy agenda to a research agenda results in two questions. First, is there room for a more expansionary monetary policy? Second, do financial instability risks require making the monetary policy rule ‘more pro-growth’?

The Monetary Policy Stance: Causality and Causes

Monetary policy, as a rule, aims to be counter-cyclical, i.e. generate expansionary incentives during cyclical downturns, and vice versa. In this respect, its stance should be matched to the estimate of the output gap. From this view, given dominating estimates of a near-zero output gap for 2019 in Belarus (National bank, 2019; Kruk, 2019), today’s monetary policy should be roughly neutral. However, analyzing monetary policy stance together with the estimates of the output gap is not a univocal option, especially given doubts about the consistency of any estimate of the output gap (Coibion et al., 2017).

From this point of view, a direct measurement of the monetary policy stance – matching ex-post real interest rate vs. an ex-ante one – is a worthwhile alternative. If the ex-post real interest exceeds the ex-ante rate, it means that the interest rate policy by a central bank is restrictive, while an opposite situation witnesses its expansionary stance (e.g. Gottschalk, 2001). A methodology for identifying inflation expectations by Kruk (2016) allows detecting restrictive and expansionary stances as well. Moreover, doing it in this way allows simultaneously tracing the stance of actual and expected inflation, and study its possible impact on monetary policy (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Monetary Policy Stance, Actual Inflation and Inflation Expectations in Belarus

Note: Positive sign means restrictive stance of monetary policy, while negative sign means expansionary stance.
Source: Own elaboration according to methodology in Kruk (2016) and based on data from the National Bank of Belarus.

First, this diagnostic shows that the stance of the monetary policy today is roughly neutral, which conforms to the diagnosis based on matching with the output gap. In this respect, it means that there is no room for monetary policy softening today.

However, eventually the situation may change and a need for an expansionary monetary policy may indeed arise. Can the National Bank of Belarus unconditionally satisfy such demand? Second, and the more important conclusion, is that the National Bank cannot. Figure 1 also demonstrates that the monetary policy stance in Belarus is very sensitive to the stance of inflation expectations. From this view, the restrictive monetary policy, say in 2015-2016 and 2018, reflected shocks in inflation expectations. The National Bank had to take a mark-up in the expected inflation in respect to the actual one into account and to transform it to the mark-up of the interest rate. If the National Bank ignores such shocks and nevertheless softens monetary policy, it will undermine price stability due to a powerful transmission effect from expected inflation to the actual one. Moreover, a reverse linkage from actual inflation to the expected one is likely to result in a prolonged inflationary period, causing a so-called ‘abnormal’ stance of the monetary environment (Kruk, 2016).

So, a generalized policy diagnosis for today looks as follows. Monetary policy has reached a roughly neutral level due to a considerable reduction in inflation expectations. The latter, in turn, happened due to a prolonged period of a restrictive policy stance (in 2015-2016), which suppressed actual inflation by means of sacrificing output in a sense (the period of cyclical downturn could have been shorter without such limitations in monetary policy).

Unanchored Expectations Bar a More ‘Pro-Growth’ Policy

A deeper cause of the limited room for monetary policies is unanchored inflation expectations. Statistical properties of the inflation expectations series (Kruk, 2019 and 2016), as well as the polls of households and firms by the National Bank, suggest that despite the reduction of the level of inflation expectations, the issue of it being unanchored is still on the agenda. In this respect, expected inflation in Belarus tends to be sensitive to numerous kinds of actual and information shocks, e.g. domestic and global output dynamics, interest rate levels and spreads, exchange rates, financial stability issues, etc. Hence, unless expectations have been anchored, the monetary policy would still suffer from a lack of power. This means that anchoring inflation expectations is the core precondition for normalizing the monetary environment and the power of any monetary policy.

For the monetary rule, this means that it cannot become more ‘pro-growth’, keeping in mind the risks to financial stability. Otherwise, it can spur price destabilization, which may also trigger financial instability. Hence, the logic of a ‘lesser evil’ does not work. Indeed, there are risks to financial stability stemming from poor growth. But combating them through a more ‘pro-growth’ policy will cause price instability and financial instability stemming from that. But what is more important, the logic of a ‘lesser evil’ itself is doubtful with respect to monetary policy. Recognizing the linkage between monetary policy and financial stability does not mean that risks to the latter should be directly traced by the former. Financial stability issues can and should primarily be tackled through macroprudential tools.

Conclusions

After a relatively long period of macroeconomic stabilization, Belarus faces some risk with respect to it. However, today’s monetary policy stance is roughly neutral in Belarus. Hence, a ‘growth injection’ may result in inflation resurgence. Moreover, even today’s near-neutral monetary policy stance is a considerable achievement, as the country still experiences the challenge of unanchored inflation expectations. This issue is a deep underlying problem, which keeps the monetary policy from being more effective and powerful. So, unless inflation expectations have been anchored, any discussion about reshaping it and making it ‘pro-growth’ is meaningless.

As for today’s justifications for monetary policy softening – poor growth and financial instability risks – they hardly relate with the monetary policy agenda. The challenge of poor growth requires thinking in terms of productivity issues, while financial stability risks in terms of macroprudential tools first.

References

  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y, Ulate, M. (2017). The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 23580.
  • Gottschalk, J. (2001). Monetary Conditions in the Euro Area: Useful Indicators of Aggregate Demand Conditions? Kiel Institute for the World Economy Working Paper No. 1037.
  • Kruk, D. (2019). Belarusian Economy in Mid-2019: the Results of the Recovery Growth Period, BEROC Policy Paper No. 69.
  • Kruk, D. (2016). SVAR Approach for Extracting Inflation Expectations Given Severe Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Belarus BEROC Working Paper No. 39.
  • Kruk, D., Bornukova, K. (2014). Belarusian Economic Growth Decomposition, BEROC Working Paper No. 24.
  • National Bank of the Republic Belarus (2019). Information on the Dynamics of Consumer Prices and Tariffs and Factors of Changes Therein, 2019Q3.

Buyer Competence and Procurement Renegotiations

20191201 Buyer Competence and Procurement Renegotiations FREE Network Policy Brief Image 01

This brief deals with the extent to which a more competent public bureaucracy can contribute to better economic outcomes. It addresses this question in the context of public procurement, governments’ purchase of goods and services from private contractors, which accounts for about 15% of GDP in most economies and is on the rise. The efficiency of the procurement process directly influences the prices and quality of many government-provided goods and services that are crucial to social welfare objectives and sustained economic growth. Several issues challenge this efficiency. Media attention is typically on episodes of corruption, which can of course be a major source of waste. Here, we focus on a less glamorous, often overlooked, but potentially even more important source of waste, the lack of procurement competence.

Public procurement is a complex task. Contracting authorities must know market characteristics, design and implement efficient award mechanisms, balance risks and incentives in drafting contracts, effectively manage the contracts in the execution phase, etc. Effective procurement, in particular for complex services or works, requires teams endowed with legal, marketing, engineering, and economic/strategic expertise. The World Bank‘s Benchmarking Public Procurement 2017 compares the quality of the legal and regulatory environments of 180 countries and reveals the existence of great heterogeneity in the quality of the procurement processes across countries. Saussier and Tirole (2015) focus on the case of France, documenting that 63% of the staff of French contracting authorities do not have a legal profile, and only 39% have qualifications specific for managing public purchases.

Recent research focusing on prices of standardized goods showed that (lack of) buyer competence among public buyers could make an even bigger impact on the waste of public funds than corruption. For example, Bandiera, Prat and Valletti (2009) estimate that Italian public buyers would save 21 percent of their expenditures if they all paid the same as the buyers at the 10th percentile of the estimated procurement price distribution. Savings could reach 1.6-2.1 percent of the Italian GDP per year. They then estimate that bureaucratic inefficiency also linked to incompetence is the main cause of waste, accounting for 83 percent of total estimated waste, compared to only 17 percent due to corruption. In a similar vein, Best, Hjort and Szakonyi (2017) report that over 40 percent of within-product price variation on standardized goods in Russia in 2011-2015 can be ascribed to the bureaucrats and organizations in charge of procurement. They estimate that if the least effective quartile of bureaucrats and organizations had the effectiveness of the 75th percentile, the Russian government would save around $13 billion per year – roughly one fifth of the total amount spent on health care by the Russian government at federal, regional, and municipal level combined.[1]

The role of competence in complex procurement

This problem is becoming even more serious now that, being under fiscal pressure after the crises, many governments are promoting the use of public procurement not only as a tool to save budgets – sometimes at the expense of quality – but also to achieve more complex objectives like fostering innovation, protecting the environment, and promoting social objectives, a multiplicity of goals that per se makes the procurement mission even more complex.

Little is known about the importance of procurement competence in more complex procurements, not least because it is very difficult to measure performance in these environments. In our paper (Decarolis et al. (2019)) we try to make a step in this direction by focusing on works and services, typically more complex than goods. We use data from the US, probably the country with the most well-developed system of production and certification of procurement competences. Thus, our estimates of the effect of lack of competences should provide a lower bound of most other countries.

We combine, for the first time, three large databases: contract-level data on procurement performance in the Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS); bureau-level data from a survey conducted by the Office of Personnel Management since 2002 on federal employees, the Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey (FEVS); and Federal Workforce Data (FedScope) containing information on characteristics of the public workforce at the employee level.

To quantify the extent to which the government-bureau-level competencies determine procurement outcomes, we use the first database to construct procurement performance measures and the second dataset to build measures of procurement offices’ competence. We then use the third database to construct instruments that help us addressing important endogeneity issues. Our identification strategy exploits the exogeneity of death events involving public officials to allow for a causal interpretation of bureau competence on procurement performance.

Measurement Challenges

Indeed, there are three main challenges that our analysis needs to overcome. The first is how to measure procurement performance. Unit price comparisons have been used for standardized goods, but they are not suitable for the more complex procurements we focus on as they are heterogeneous in many non-recorded dimensions and their contracts are often incomplete. We use FPDS instead to construct three proxies of performance based on time delays, cost overruns, and the number of renegotiations. Although the first two measures are widely used in the literature, we are careful to take into account that cost overruns and delays may be due to new or additional work requested by the public buyer, in which case they should not be viewed as indicative of a poor outcome. We, therefore, consider only those which have occurred to deliver the work or service that was originally tendered. The third performance measure, the overall number of renegotiation episodes, is new and aims at capturing Williamson’s “haggling costs,” which are a pure deadweight loss present whatever the reason behind the renegotiation and have been shown to be economically sizeable for complex contracts. Our data reveals a surprising and persistent heterogeneity along these three dimensions across US federal bureaus.

The second challenge is the measurement of bureaucratic competence. Other papers in the field have measured it using buyer fixed effects. We use a novel approach based on the mentioned survey of employees’ subjective evaluations (FEVS). The survey is extremely rich, and we chose the most general question as an overall measure for competence (How would you rate the overall quality of work done by your work unit?). Responses to this question should be seen as measures of the overall efficacy of the workflow and processes within the bureau, hence proxying for the ideal measure of competence on the many different aspects relevant to procurement. An extensive set of robustness checks support our idea of measuring competence through the FEVS data.

The third measurement problem is the association between more complex contracts and more competent buyers: the most competent buyers may consistently produce poor performance because they are allocated the most complicated procurements. This point is well illustrated in a case study showing that the performance of the agencies that are worst in terms of competence (the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Department of Justice) is superior to that of the two most competent agencies (the NASA and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) in terms of both delays and cost overruns. This striking inversion indicates that any straightforward regression of performance on competence would grossly underestimate the impact of competence.

We, therefore, develop an instrumental variable strategy exploiting exogenous changes in competence. We use FedScope to build instruments for bureaus’ competence based on the deaths of specific types of employees: bureau managers and white-collar employees who are relatively young and earn a relatively high wage. The idea is that more competent offices adopt better managerial practices, routines and processes that are more resilient to risks, such that of an unexpected loss of a key employee, and less dependent on specific individuals. This is precisely what the first stage of our IV strategy documents. Our instruments perform well in terms of their statistical properties and they allow us to estimate a causal effect of bureau competence on procurement outcomes that is an order of magnitude larger than the corresponding OLS estimate.

Results

We find that one standard deviation increase in competence reduces the number of days of delay by 23 percent, cost overruns by 29 percent and the number of renegotiations by half. This implies that if all federal bureaus were to obtain NASA’s high level of competence – corresponding to the top 10th percentile of the competence distribution – delays in contract execution would decline by 4.8 million days, and cost overrun would drop by $6.7 billions over the entire sample analyzed. We also find a consistently negative effect of greater competence on the number of renegotiations: one standard deviation increase in competence causes 0.5 (39%) and 0.8 (71%) fewer cost renegotiations and time renegotiations, respectively.

Finally, we try to understand what exactly makes a bureau ‘competent’ using the FEVS data to identify three different components: cooperation among employees, incentives and skills. Separately estimating their causal effects is unfeasible with instruments like the two described above as the validity of the exclusion restriction, which can be argued to be satisfied when measuring a broadly defined notion of bureau competence, is unlikely to hold for more specific components. However, we provide multiple pieces of evidence suggestive that cooperation is the key driver behind the positive effects of bureau competence. This finding conforms with the view that successful procurement requires appropriate coordination of a multiplicity of tasks involving different individuals. We also consider the extent to which the role of cooperation is due to the presence of capable managers, able to lead a group to effective cooperation, exploiting the heterogenous effects obtained through instruments considering the deaths of different subgroups of employees. We find that the deaths that matter the most are those of relatively young and best paid white-collar employees.

These results point at the large potential improvement in the performance of public contracts that could be achieved by investing more resources in increasing the competence of contracting authorities, even in a country with long-established procurement training and certification institutions such as the US. In Europe, recent policy initiatives see the introduction of qualification systems for public procurers as a necessary response to the generally lower procurement competence coupled with the greater discretion granted by the 2014 Procurement Directives. Our results on the role of cooperation suggest that certification programs would be also useful at the level of the procuring office, and should include features such as the organisation of the acquisition process and the prevailing management practices, as is often done for private firms.

References

[1] See also, Bucciol et al (2017) who study procurement of standardized medical devices purchased by local Italian purchasing bodies, finding that the price for the same medical devices paid by Italian public buyers differ substantially, and that the differences are explained by ‘buyers fixed effects’ capturing all specific buyers characteristics, including their competence levels.

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

The Long Shadow of Transition: The State of Democracy in Eastern Europe

Dark hill on the right side of the image with a shadow of a man holding his bicycle on the right side

In many parts of Eastern Europe, the transition towards stronger political institutions and democratic deepening has been slow and uneven. Weak political checks and balances, corruption and authoritarianism have threatened democracy, economic and social development and adversely impacted peace and stability in Europe at large. This policy brief summarizes the insights from Development Day 2019, a full-day conference organized by SITE at the Stockholm School of Economics on November 12th. The presentations were centred around the current political and business climate in the Eastern European region, throwing light on new developments in the past few years, strides towards and away from democracy, and the challenges as well as possible policy solutions emanating from those.

The State of Democracy in the Region

From a regional perspective, Eastern Europe has seen mixed democratic success over the years with hybrid systems that combine some elements of democracy and autocracy. Based on the V-Dem liberal democracy index, ten transition countries that have joined the EU saw rapid early progress after transition. In comparison, the democratic development in twelve nations of the FSU still outside of the EU has been largely stagnant.

In recent years, however, democracy in some of those EU countries, such as Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania have been in decline. Poland, one of the region’s top performers in terms of GDP growth and life expectancy, has experienced a sharp decline in democracy since 2015. Backlashes have often occurred after elections in which corruption and economic mismanagement have led to the downfall of incumbent governments and a general distrust of the political system. Together with low voter turnout, this created fertile ground for more autocratic forces to gain power helped by demand for strong leadership.

An example from Ukraine illustrated the role of media, both traditional and social, for policy-making. In some countries of the region, traditional media is strictly state-controlled with obvious concerns for democracy. This is less the case in Ukraine, where also social media plays an important role in forming political opinions. The concern is that, as elsewhere, opinions that gain traction on social media may not be impartial or well informed, affecting public perception about policy-making. A recent case showing the popular reaction to an attack on the former governor of the Central Bank suggests that those implementing important reforms may not get due credit when biased and partial information dominates the political discourse on social media.

Another case is the South Caucasian region: Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. The political situation there has been characterized as a “government by day, government by night” dichotomy, implying that the real political power largely lies outside the official political institutions. In Georgia, the situation can be described as a competition between autocracy and democracy, with a feudalistic system in which powerful groups replace one another across time. As a result, trust in political institutions is low, as well as citizens’ political participation.

In the case of Azerbaijan, there is an elected presidency, but in reality, power has been passed on hereditarily, becoming a de facto patrimonial system. Lastly, in Armenia, the new government possesses democratic credentials, but the tensions with neighbouring Azerbaijan and Turkey have given increasing power to the military and important economic powers. Overall, democratisation in these countries has been hindered by a trend for powerful politicians to form parties around themselves and to retain power after the end of their mandates. Also, the historical focus on nation-building in these countries has led to a marked exclusion of minorities and a conflict of national identities.

The last country case in this part of the conference focused on the current political situation in Russia and on the likely outcomes after 2024. The social framework in Russia appears constellated by fears – a fear of a world war, of regime tightening and mass repressions, and of lawlessness – all of them on the rise. Similarly, the economy is suffering, in particular from low business activity, somewhat offset by a boost in social payments. Nonetheless, it was argued that it is not economic concerns, but rather political frustration, that has recently led citizens to take to the street. Despite this, survey data shows that trust in Putin is still over 60%, and that most people would vote for him again. However, survey data also points out that the most likely determinant of this trust is the lack of another reference figure, and that citizens are not averse to the idea of political change in itself. Lastly, Putin will most likely retain some political power after 2024, transiting “from father to grandfather of the nation”.

Voices from the civil society in the region also emphasized the importance of a free media and an active civil society to prevent the backsliding of democracy. With examples from Georgia and Ukraine, it was argued that maintaining the independence of the judiciary, as well as the public prosecutor’s office, can go a long way in building credibility both among citizens and the international community. The European Union can leverage the high trust and hopeful attitudes it benefits from in the region to push crucial reforms more strongly. For example, more than 70% of Georgians would vote for joining the EU if a referendum was held on the topic and the European Union is widely regarded as Georgia’s most important foreign supporter.

Weak Institutions and Business Development

The quality of political and legal institutions strongly affects the business environment, in particular with regards to the protection of property rights, rule of law, regulation and corruption. Research from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) highlights that the governance gap between Eastern Europe and Central Asia and most advanced economies is still large, even though progress in this area has actually been faster than for other emerging economies since the mid-‘90s. This is measured through enterprise surveys as well as individual surveys. In Albania, for instance, a perception of lower corruption was linked to a decrease in the intention to emigrate equivalent to earning 400$ more per month. Another point concerned the complexity of measuring the business environment and the benefits of firm-level surveys asking firms directly about their own actual experience of regular enforcement. For example, in countries such as Poland, Latvia and Romania the actual experience of business regulation measured via the EBRD’s Business Environment Enterprise Performance Survey, is far worse than one would expect from the World Bank’s well known Doing Business rating.

From the perspective of Swedish firms, trade between Sweden and the region has remained rather flat in the past years, as the complexity and risks of these markets especially discourage SMEs. Business Sweden explained that Swedish firms considering an expansion in these markets are concerned with issues of exchange rate stability, and the institutional-driven presence of unfair competition and of excessive bureaucracy. Moreover, inadequate infrastructure and the presence of bribery and corruption make everyday business operations risky and costly. It was generally emphasized that countries have to create a safe investment environment by reducing corruption, establishing a clear and well enacted regulatory environment, having dependable courts and strengthening domestic resource mobilization. Swedish aid can play a part, but there is a need to develop new ways of delivering aid to make it more effective.

An interesting example is Belarus, that has seen more economic and political stability than most neighbours, but at the same time a lack of both economic and political reforms towards market economy and democracy. Gradually the preference towards private ownership, as opposed to public, has increased in recent years and the country has seen a rising share of the private sector, even without specific privatization reforms. Nonetheless, international businesses are still reluctant to invest due to high taxes, a lack of access to finance as well as to a qualified workforce, but most importantly due to the weak legal system. An exception has been China, and Belarus has looked at the One Belt One Road Initiative as a promising bridge to the EU. Scandals connected with the two main Chinese-invested projects have damped the enthusiasm recently, though.

The economic and political risks of extensively relying on badly diversified energy sources, as is the case with natural gas imports from Russia in many transition states were also discussed. It was shown how some countries such as Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania have improved their energy security by either benefitting from reverse-flow technology and the EU’s bargaining power or building their own LNG terminals to diversify supply sources. However, either of these, as well as other energy security improving solutions are likely to come with an economic cost, though, that not all countries in the region can afford.

A Government Perspective

The main focus of this section was the Swedish government’s new inspiring foreign policy initiative, “Drive for Democracy”. Drawing from a definition of democracy by Kerstin Hesselgren, an early Swedish female parliamentarian, democracy enables countries to realize and utilize the forces of the individual and draw them into a life-giving, value-creating society. It was emphasized that the values of democracy are objectives by themselves (e.g. freedom of expression, respect for human rights) but also that democracy has important positive effects in other areas of human welfare. The Swedish government views democracy as the best foundation for a sustainable society, equality of opportunity and absence of gender or racial bias.

The “Drive for Democracy” specifically identifies Eastern Europe as one of the main frontiers between democracy and autocracy, and the Swedish government promotes human rights and stability through various bilateral programmes through the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Sida, and multilateral initiatives within the EU, such as the Eastern Partnership. It was also emphasized that democracy is a continuous process that can always be improved, as indeed experienced by Sweden. Political rights were granted to women only in 1919 followed by convicts and prisoners in 1933 and to the Roma people only in 1950. Political and democratic rights are thus never once and for all given, and it is crucial that the dividends from democracy are carried forward to the younger generation.

Conclusion

In sum, the day illustrated clearly how democracy engages all segments of society, from the business sector to civil society, and the potential for but also challenges involved for democratic deepening in Eastern Europe. To get more information about the presentations during the day, please visit our website.

Participants at the Conference

  • PER OLSSON FRIDH, State Secretary, Ministry for Foreign Affairs.
  • ALEXANDER PLEKHANOV, Director for Transition Impact and Global Economics at EBRD.
  • TORBJÖRN BECKER, Director, SITE.
  • CHLOÉ LE COQ, Associate Professor, SITE and Professor of Economics, University of Paris II Panthéon-Assas.
  • THOMAS DE WAAL, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
  • NATALIIA SHAPOVAL, Vice President for Policy Research at Kyiv School of Economics.
  • ILONA SOLOGUB, Scientific Editor at VoxUkraine and Director for Policy Research at Kyiv School of Economics.
  • KETEVAN VASHAKIDZE, President at Europe Foundation, Georgia.
  • MARIA BISTER, Senior Policy Specialist, Sida.
  • HENRIK NORBERG, Deputy Director, Ministry for Foreign Affairs.
  • YLVA BERG, CEO and President, Business Sweden.
  • LARS ANELL, Ambassador and formerly Volvo’s Senior Vice President.
  • ERIK BERGLÖF, Professor in Practice and Director of the Institute of Global Affairs, London School of Economics and Political Science.
  • KATERYNA BORNUKOVA, Academic Director, BEROC, Minsk.
  • ANDREI KOLESNIKOV, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Moscow Center.

Gender Gaps in Wages and Wealth: Evidence from Estonia

20191118 Gender Gaps in Wages and Wealth FREE Network Policy Brief Image 01

This policy brief introduces two related papers examining two types of gender gaps in Estonia. First, it presents the work of Vahter and Masso (2019), who study the wage gender gaps in foreign-owned firms and compare this gap with the situation in domestic ones. Then it summarizes a paper of Meriküll, Kukk, and Rõõm (2019), who focus on the wealth gender gaps and highlight the role of entrepreneurship in this gap.

Gender inequality is not only a moral issue. An extensive literature has highlighted the cost of gender inequality in terms of economic (in)efficiency. Most of the academic work has, however, focused on either the US and Western Europe or developing countries. Research focusing on systematic gender disparities in Eastern Europe is rather scarce. Yet, there is much to be learned from this region. The purpose of the FROGEE (Forum for Research on Gender in Eastern Europe) project is to study several issues related to gender inequality in former socialist countries.

This policy brief summarizes two papers presented at the 2nd Baltic Economic Conference at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga, on June 10-11, where a special session on gender economics was held with the support of the FROGEE project. The event, organized by the Baltic Economic Association (see balticecon.org), gathered more than 85 researchers from the Baltics and all over the world. These two papers focus on Estonia, one of the most successful economies among the transition countries, where however the gender wage gap is among the largest in the European Union.

Firm ownership and gender wage gap

An important source of wage inequality originates in firm-specific pay schemes (see for instance Card et al. 2016). Understanding the characteristics of firms associated with a gender pay gap is thus a necessary step to design relevant policy responses. In a paper entitled “The contribution of multinationals to wage inequality: foreign ownership and the gender pay gap”, Jaan Masso and Priit Vahter, both at the University of Tartu, compare the situation in foreign-owned firms with domestic ones. The fact that foreign-owned firms provide on average higher wages to their employees is well documented. However, the question of whether this premium differs between men and women remains largely overlooked.

A potential channel linking firm ownership and gender wage gap is the transfer of management practices from the home country of the investor to the affiliate. The great majority of FDI in Estonia originates from Finland and Sweden, two countries that regularly top international rankings on gender equality and that have set the fight against gender inequality as a top priority. Observing a lower level of gender wage gap in firms owned by Swedish and Finnish capital would suggest the existence of such a mechanism, even if there is evidence that Scandinavian countries do not stand out in a positive way when it comes to women in the top of the distribution (see for instance Boschini et al., 2018, and Bobilev et al., 2019).

On the other hand, Goldin (2014) has shown that a large part of the gender wage gap in the US can be explained by differences in job “commitment”: firms disproportionately reward workers willing to be available 24/7, more flexible regarding business trips, spending longer hours in the office, etc. Such workers happen to be more often men than women. Multinational firms may require such commitment and flexibility to a larger extent than domestic firms, due for instance to their higher exposure to international competition. This would imply a larger gender pay gap in foreign-owned firms compared to local firms.

To investigate this issue, Masso and Vahter (2019) rely on Estonian administrative data, providing information on the whole universe of workers and of firms in the country between 2006 and 2014. This matched employer-employee dataset allows to track the wage of individuals over the years, but also to compare wages both across and within firms. It thus becomes possible to estimate the gender wage gap at the firm level (controlling for relevant individual-level factors affecting wages, such as age and experience), and then to check whether this measure systematically differs between domestic and foreign-owned firms.

However, simply comparing the gender pay gap between these two types of firms could lead to spurious conclusions. Foreign-owned firms have on average different characteristics than domestic ones: they do not operate in the same sectors, they do not have the same size nor the same productivity. To overcome this issue, the authors rely on a matching method: for each foreign-owned firms, they match a domestic firm with similar (observable) characteristics.

They find that in domestic firms, women are on average paid 19% less than men, even after accounting for many other factors associated with wage. In foreign-owned companies, both men and women are better paid. However, both genders do not benefit from the same premium: men are paid roughly 15% more in foreign-owned firms, whereas the premium for women is only 5.4%. This difference implies an even larger gender wage gap in multinational firms. To illustrate the economic significance of these results, for a man and a woman earning a monthly wage of 1146 euros (the average gross wage in Estonia in 2016), the premium for switching from a domestic to a foreign-owned firm is respectively 171 and 62 euros. Further, they provide some evidence that lower “commitment” is associated with a stronger wage penalty in foreign-owned firms. All in all, these results suggest that there is not necessarily a relationship between a multinational wage policy (especially in its gender wage-gap dimension) and the gender norms prevailing in its country of incorporation.

Gender and wealth gap

The vast majority of academic papers studying gender inequality focuses on the wage gap. But gender inequality can affect other types of economic outcomes, such as labor force participation, unemployment duration, or wealth. The latter is of particular interest since wealth can greatly contribute to empowerment. Merike Kukk, Jaanika Meriküll and Tairi Rõõm, all at the Bank of Estonia, extend the literature with a paper entitled “What explains the Gender Gap in Wealth? Evidence from Administrative Data”. This paper is one of the first to study the gender wealth gap in a post-transition country. The literature on the gender wealth gap is rather scarce because of a lack of suitable data: wealth measures are often computed at the household level, while individual-level data is necessary for such a study.

The main aim of this paper is to depict a precise portrait of this phenomenon in Estonia. In particular, the authors do not simply estimate the overall wealth gap but investigate the magnitude of the gap across the wealth distribution. In other words, is there a difference between the poorest men and the poorest women? Or on the other side of the distribution, are the richest men more wealthy than the richest women?

For this purpose, Kukk, Meriküll and Rõõm combine administrative individual-level data on wealth with survey results. The administrative data are generally considered of much better quality than the other, but they do not provide a lot of additional information on individuals. On the other hand, survey data provide a wealth of information about individual characteristics. Merging allows getting the best of both worlds. Regarding the methodology, the authors use unconditional quantile regression to track gender differences at different deciles of the wealth distribution. They further decompose this “raw” gender gap into two components: the “explained” part, i.e., the part of the gap resulting in differences in characteristics between men and women (demographics, education, etc.), and the “unexplained” part.

This study estimates the raw, unconditional gender wealth gap in Estonia to be 45%, which is of similar magnitude as in Germany. Interestingly, this difference is essentially driven by differences in the top of the distribution: there is a large gap between the richest men and the richest women. This “raw” difference is however explained by a single variable: self-employment, as men are much more likely to have business assets than women. Once controlling for the entrepreneurship status, the wealth difference between the richest Estonians becomes insignificant. This suggests the need to support policies encouraging female entrepreneurship and to remove barriers particularly affecting women. For instance, the literature has previously pointed out that women have less access to external sources of capital than men (e.g., Aidis et al., 2007). Such distortions can ultimately result in a wealth gap at the top of the distribution, as documented by this paper.

In addition, the literature has proposed several mechanisms that could result in gender-specific patterns of wealth accumulation. The simplest channel is through the wage gap, as it can be seen as the accumulation of the wage gap over time (e.g. Blau and Kahn, 2000). The authors thus compare the gender gaps in wealth and income. They uncover a strong wage gap, with men earning significantly more than women starting at the 6th decile: the higher we go in the income distribution, the larger the wage gap. How to reconcile this finding with the absence of a wealth gap conditional on entrepreneurship status? A possible explanation suggested by the authors is that women simply accumulate wealth better than men do.

Conclusion

These two papers illustrate two different mechanisms explaining gender-specific economic outcomes. The larger wage gap observed in multinational companies can be explained by a stronger commitment penalty for women, mostly because of childcare. This asks for two potential policy interventions. First, the development of childcare could facilitate the reduction in the “commitment gap” that disrupts women’s careers. Second, institutions could support a more flexible repartition of childcare responsibilities. Note however that Estonia already has the longest duration of leave at full pay (85 weeks), and that this leave can be freely split between parents. As for the wealth gap at the top of the wealth distribution, it can to a large extent be explained by the entrepreneurship status. This difference could partly be explained by differences in preferences and risk-aversion, which would require long-run policies to be mitigated. But in the short run, there is room for specific policies supporting female entrepreneurship and removing barriers particularly affecting women, such as a tighter credit constraint.

References

  • Aidis, R., Welter, F., Smallbone, D., & Isakova, N. (2007). Female entrepreneurship in transition economies: the case of Lithuania and Ukraine. Feminist Economics13(2), 157-183.
  • Blau, F. D., & Kahn, L. M. (2000). Gender differences in pay.  Journal of Economic perspectives14(4), 75-99.
  • Bobilev, R., Boschini, A., & Roine, J. (2019). Women in the Top of the Income Distribution: What Can We Learn From LIS-Data?. Italian Economic Journal, 1-45.
  • Boschini, A., Gunnarsson, K., & Roine, J. (2018). Women in Top Incomes: Evidence from Sweden 1974-2013. IZA Discussion Paper No. 10979 .
  • Card, D., Cardoso, A. R., & Kline, P. (2015). Bargaining, sorting, and the gender wage gap: Quantifying the impact of firms on the relative pay of women. The Quarterly Journal of Economics131(2), 633-686.
  • Goldin, C. (2014). A grand gender convergence: Its last chapter. American Economic Review104(4), 1091-1119.
  • Meriküll, J., Kukk, M., & Rõõm, T. (2019). What explains the gender gap in wealth? Evidence from administrative data. Bank of Estonia WP No. 2019-04.
  • Vahter, P., & Masso, J. (2019). The contribution of multinationals to wage inequality: foreign ownership and the gender pay gap. Review of World Economics155(1), 105-148.

The Dollar and the Global Monetary Cycle

A bunch of dollar bills covering table that represents capital flows in Russia

The dominance of the dollar in international markets is at the heart of recent policy and academic debates at almost all conferences on international economics. Most recently, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has suggested a new global electronic currency to reduce the dominance of the dollar (Carney 2019). What are the negative effects of the dollar’s dominance, and how can countries protect against its influence? We answer this and other related questions in our recent paper (Egorov and Mukhin 2019), which we summarize in this policy brief.

Stable prices

What are the sources of the dollar’s global powers? Ultimately, the dollar matters as long as it is used by private agents in their transactions. Recently, a lot of attention has been devoted to the role of the dollar in global financial markets, which gives rise to the so-called “global financial cycle” (Rey 2013). However, a growing literature (e.g., Gopinath et al. 2019) shows that the dollar also plays a central role in international goods markets with many exporters setting their prices in the U.S. currency. According to recent estimates, the share of goods with dollar prices is about 4-5 times larger than the share of the US in global trade (Gopinath 2016). That means many firms set prices in dollars even when they trade not with the US, but with other countries.

Even though this global invoicing role of the dollar may not seem important, many studies show that prices remain stable, or sticky, in the currency in which they are set. This means that in many countries, the prices of imported goods are almost fixed in dollars. Then movements in the dollar exchange rate immediately result in changes in the prices of these goods in the local currency. Of course, even dollar prices adjust occasionally, but recent empirical studies show that the dollar prices of imported goods remain pretty stable even two years after a change in the exchange rate (Gopinath et al. 2019).

Such stability of global prices in dollars has three important implications. First, the dollar exchange rate affects the volume of global trade. In any given country, appreciation of the dollar raises the local-currency prices of imported goods. Because of that, consumers switch from more expensive imported goods to cheaper domestic goods. The same happens in other countries, and thus all consumers buy fewer foreign goods, and the volume of global trade decreases.

Second, the dollar exchange rate affects world inflation and output. A rise in import prices after appreciation of the dollar increases inflation both directly and indirectly, through an increase in the costs to all domestic firms that use imported goods as inputs. The higher the costs, the more firms raise their prices, and the higher the inflation. Indeed, a recent empirical study shows that the dollar exchange rate is a good predictor of world inflation and the volume of global trade (Gopinath et al. 2019). Moreover, an increase in global inflation reduces consumers’ real income, and this leads to lower aggregate demand and thus to a reduction in world output. Therefore, dollar appreciation could trigger a world recession.

Third, we show that all countries find it optimal to partially peg their exchange rates to the dollar. Since changes in the dollar exchange rate could negatively affect output and inflation, all countries try to protect themselves from these external shocks. If it is not possible for a government to convince its private agents to stop using the dollar in their transactions, then the government could reduce the changes in the dollar exchange rate by pegging its currency to the dollar. Of course, this policy cannot address all issues, but at least the prices of imported goods can become more stable in the local currency.

Rigged system

What does this global use of the dollar imply for the US? First of all, it enables the US’s so-called “privileged insularity”. Since the prices of both local and imported goods in the US are stable in dollars, changes in exchange rates do not lead to inflation or expenditure switching between home and foreign goods. This gives rise to a significant asymmetry across countries: the dollar exchange rate has a substantial effect on other countries, but all other exchange rates have only a negligible effect on the US.

We show that the asymmetry in countries’ exposure to exchange rate shocks leads to an asymmetry in their monetary policy. All countries find themselves responding to US policy by partially pegging their exchange rates to the dollar. In contrast, due to its “privileged insularity”, the US can focus on its domestic targets, respond primarily to domestic shocks, and potentially achieve higher welfare than other countries, which are more exposed to foreign shocks.

So, when a local recession hits the US, the Fed stimulates the US economy regardless of the conditions of the world economy. Then all other countries stimulate their economies as well in order to keep their exchange rates more stable relative to the dollar. This creates what we call a “global monetary cycle”, where the whole world becomes more synchronized even when there are no global shocks common to all countries. The more prominent the role of the dollar is in the international goods market, the stronger this “global monetary cycle”. In fact, a recent empirical study confirms this prediction and shows that the higher the share of the dollar in the country’s import basket is, the stronger its peg to the dollar, and the more nominal interest rates follow the US interest rates (Zhang 2018).

Leveling the playing field

What can other countries do to diminish negative consequences from the “global monetary cycle”? One possible way to discourage firms from using the dollar could be the creation or expansion of a monetary union such as the Euro area. The larger the Eurozone is, the more countries within this area use the euro and not the dollar to trade with each other. Moreover, the Eurozone’s trading partners are more likely to use the currency of a larger monetary union (Mukhin 2018). If enough firms switch from the dollar to the euro, then we find that the Eurozone may gain the same advantage of “privileged insularity” as the US.

Another frequently mentioned policy to protect from the undesirable exchange rate effects is the use of capital controls, which are found to be effective in softening the “global financial cycle”. For example, a tax on borrowing in foreign currency can reduce the size of the foreign-denominated debt, so that depreciation does not lead to an increase in the nominal debt burden and start a recession. However, we find that under the “global monetary cycle” these measures turn out to be much less effective. Basically, capital controls primarily affect decisions in financial markets. But it’s the decisions of global exporters, that is decisions in international goods markets, that give rise to the “global monetary cycle”. And the effect of capital controls on exporters is much more subtle if present at all.

Conclusion

To sum up, we argue that as long as many firms continue to set prices in dollars, it is optimal for central banks to smooth movements in exchange rates in order to diminish the effects of the dollar on their economies. This partial peg to the dollar leads to the “global monetary cycle”. As a result, the US is free to implement a mostly independent monetary policy, while the rest of the world has to follow their lead.

References

  • Carney, M.,  2019. “The Growing Challenges for Monetary Policy in the Current International Monetary and Financial System”, Speech given at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
  • Egorov, K., and D. Mukhin,  2019. “Optimal Monetary Policy under Dollar Pricing”, Working paper.
  • Gopinath, G., 2016. “The International Price System”, Jackson Hole Symposium Proceedings.
  • Gopinath, G., E. Boz, C. Casas, F. Diez, P.-O. Gourinchas, and M. Plagborg-Moller, 2019. “Dominant Currency Paradigm”, Working paper.
  • Mukhin, D., 2018. “An Equilibrium Model of the International Price System”, Working paper.
  • Rey, H., 2013. “Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence”, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Econoic Policy Symposium.
  • Zhang, T., 2018. “Monetary Policy Spillovers through Invoicing Currencies”, Working paper