Tag: KSE Institute
Denmark Backs New KSE Institute Center on Sanctions and Resilience
The Danish government is partnering with the KSE Institute to establish the Center for Geoeconomics and Resilience and the Sanctions Hub of Excellence. This initiative will strengthen KSE Institute’s sanctions research, economic resilience, and Ukraine’s post-war recovery. The Center will be led by Benjamin Hilgenstock and Yuliia Pavytska, with funding from Denmark’s Research Reserve and Ukraine Transition Programme.
Building Economic Resilience Through Sanctions Research
Denmark’s support comes amid Ukraine’s ongoing fight against Russia’s full-scale invasion. Since 2022, the KSE Institute has played a vital role in shaping global sanctions policy. The new Center will expand this work, deepening research into the economic effects of sanctions and strategies for Ukraine’s recovery.
By 2026, the Center aims to develop a broader macroeconomic research program, creating a hub for collaboration between Ukrainian and European experts. A new satellite office in Copenhagen, hosted by the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS), will further connect Ukrainian and Nordic analytical institutions.
Strengthening Strategic Research and Action
The project’s goal is to enhance analytical capacity on sanctions policy, economic stability, and post-war recovery. The team will study how sanctions impact Russia’s economy, develop proposals for new restrictive measures, and expose the operations of the “shadow fleet” used to evade sanctions.
Benjamin Hilgenstock will take on the role of Director of the Center, while Yuliia Pavytska will lead the Sanctions Hub. Key experts, including Nataliia Shapoval (President of KSE Institute), Elina Ribakova (Director of the International Affairs Program and Vice President for Foreign Policy at KSE), Anna Vlasyuk (Head of International Law and Policy Research), and Borys Dodonov (Head of the Center for Energy and Climate Studies) will play a central role in advancing the Center’s research and strategic initiatives. In addition, Olena Bilousova, Anatoliy Kravtsev, Kateryna Olkhovyk, Dmytro Pokryshka, Pavlo Shkurenko, Lucas Risinger, and Matvii Talalaievskyi will join the Sanctions Hub, continuing their exceptional work on sanctions policy and analysis.
Expanding the Partnership Between Denmark and Ukraine
Denmark’s investment underscores its leadership within the global sanctions coalition. The project is co-financed by Denmark’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defence, and Ministry of Higher Education and Science.
Further Reading
Read the full announcement on the Kyiv School of Economics website to explore the complete details of this new collaboration.
Visit the KSE Institute Sanctions Hub to explore in-depth monitoring of international sanctions against Russia. The Hub maintains a consolidated sanctions database and provides detailed reports on the impact of sanctions on Russia’s economy. It also features analyses of sanctions effectiveness, revealing patterns of enforcement and circumvention, as well as position papers and sectoral reports offering expert insights into key industries and policy recommendations from KSE researchers.
Visit the SITE Sanctions Portal to gain insights into sanctions on Russia and its economic retaliation measures. This resource provides a detailed timeline and comprehensive evidence base that brings together data, analysis, and expert commentary. It helps researchers, journalists, and policymakers navigate the evolving sanctions landscape. SITE Sanctions Portal explores the economic consequences of Western sanctions and Russia’s strategic responses.
Russian Oil Revenues Dip to $13.5B on Lower Prices
Russian oil revenues fell to $13.5 billion in August 2025, down $0.9 billion from July, according to the September Russian Oil Tracker by the KSE Institute. The decline came as prices for crude oil and most oil products, except naphtha, dropped despite stable export volumes. Crude oil revenues slipped by $0.4 billion to $8.8 billion, while oil product revenues fell by $0.6 billion to $4.8 billion.
Falling Russian Oil Revenues
Seaborne exports of crude oil declined by 1.4%, and oil product exports by 1.7% compared to July. Only 21% of crude oil and 82% of oil products were shipped on tankers covered by the International Group (IG) P&I insurance, underscoring Russia’s growing reliance on uninsured or “shadow” vessels.
The Shadow Fleet Expands
According to the KSE Institute, 155 Russian shadow fleet tankers transported crude and oil products in August 2025, including those engaged in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers. Alarmingly, 86% of these vessels were over 15 years old, which raises significant safety and environmental concerns.
India and Turkey Remain Key Buyers
India held its position as the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude, taking in 1,504 kb/d in August, down 11% month-on-month but still 45% of total Russian exports. Turkey continued to dominate oil product imports, purchasing around 425 kb/d, highlighting the nation’s central role in processing and reselling Russian fuel.
Sanctions and Price Caps Under Pressure
Western allies, including the EU, US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, have sanctioned 535 Russian oil tankers. Yet, the number of tankers violating sanctions continues to rise monthly, showing gaps in enforcement.
In August 2025, Urals crude traded below the G7/EU price cap, while ESPO crude traded well above it. All refined products, except naphtha, remained below the cap, reflecting how outdated cap levels have become.
Key Research Findings on Russian Oil Revenues
- Total revenues: Down to $13.5 billion in August 2025.
- Crude oil: $8.8 billion; oil products: $4.8 billion.
- Shadow fleet: 86% of tankers are over 15 years old.
- India: 45% of seaborne crude imports.
- Sanctions: Weak enforcement allows rising violations.
Future Outlook for Russian Oil Revenues
Under current caps and sanctions, the KSE Institute projects Russian oil revenues of $155 billion in 2025 and $125 billion in 2026. If discounts widen to $40/barrel (Urals) and $30/barrel (ESPO), revenues could plunge to $136 billion in 2025 and just $46 billion in 2026. However, if sanctions enforcement remains weak, revenues may climb to $161 billion in 2025 and $146 billion in 2026, a significant boost despite international restrictions. Since March 2022, total Russian oil export losses are estimated at $159 billion, reflecting the lasting financial impact of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Meet the Researchers
- Borys Dodonov, KSE Institute
- Benjamin Hilgenstock, KSE Institute
- Anatolii Kravtsev, KSE Institute
- Yuliia Pavytska, KSE Institute
- Nataliia Shapoval, KSE Institute
Read the Full Report
Read the complete “Russian Oil Tracker – September 2025” on the KSE Institute website for detailed charts and policy scenarios.
Additional Reading
Explore other policy papers and reports on Ukraine’s economic transition and development on the KSE Institute’s website. Read more policy briefs on Eastern Europe and emerging economies on the FREE Network’s website.
European Security Needs Ukraine’s Lessons to Deter Russia
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has shattered Europe’s long-held belief in lasting peace. The continent now faces its most serious security crisis since World War II. In response, Ukraine’s battlefield-tested innovations offer a powerful blueprint for a stronger and more resilient European defense system.
In their latest report, “Rethinking European Security in the Face of the Russian Threat,” authors from the KSE Institute, Olena Bilousova, Pavlo Shkurenko, Kateryna Olkhovyk, Elina Ribakova, and Lucas Risinger, outline how Europe can integrate Ukraine into its defense strategy to build lasting protection and deterrence against future aggression.
Europe’s Wake-Up Call on Security
For decades, Europe’s defense relied heavily on U.S. military power. But with Washington’s commitment increasingly uncertain, European nations must prepare to defend themselves. Years of underinvestment have left defense industries underdeveloped and ammunition stockpiles dangerously low.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to expand its military capabilities well beyond the war in Ukraine. This shifting landscape makes Ukraine’s role, both as a frontline defender and a hub of defense innovation, indispensable to Europe’s long-term security.
How Ukraine Became a Model for European Defense
For over three years, Ukraine has resisted a larger, nuclear-armed aggressor through speed, adaptability, and rapid technological innovation. From AI-driven battlefield systems to anti-drone warfare, Ukraine demonstrates how creativity and decentralization can offset limited resources.
Europe can learn from Ukraine’s experience to modernize its own defense systems and close existing capability gaps.
Key Research Insights
- Combat-tested technologies: Ukraine’s AI-based DELTA systems and digital command tools provide models for next-generation European defense.
- Cost-effective innovation: Interceptor drones and low-cost countermeasures can neutralize expensive Russian weapons at scale.
- Decentralized procurement: Streamlined processes speed up the delivery of critical battlefield tools and reduce bureaucratic delays.
- Strategic integration: Including Ukraine in European defense programs enhances deterrence and joint security across the continent.
Building a Future-Ready European Defense
The report calls for full integration of Ukraine into Europe’s defense ecosystem — from procurement and research to industrial planning. This includes:
- Granting Ukraine access to EU defense funds
- Embedding Ukrainian military expertise in European training programs
- Co-producing weapons and defense technologies
Such integration would not only bolster European security but also make rearmament faster, more affordable, and more coordinated across the EU and its partners.
Meet the Researchers
- Olena Bilousova: KSE Institute
- Pavlo Shkurenko: KSE Institute
- Kateryna Olkhovyk: KSE Institute
- Elina Ribakova: KSE Institute
- Lucas Risinger: KSE Institute
Read the Full Report
Explore the complete findings and recommendations in the full report on the KSE Institute website. You can also explore more policy briefs covering conflict and sanctions in the FREE Network’s policy briefs section.