Author: Cecilia Smitt Meyer

Road Congestion Pricing with A Public Transport Cashback Mechanism

Posted on February 3, 2025 | Policy Brief

Traffic congestion during rush hour – a challenge congestion pricing aims to solve.

Traffic jams are a major problem in cities leading to wasted time, air pollution, reduced accessibility, and, in turn, lower economic activity. Transport economists widely agree that charging drivers fees for using busy roads during rush hours (congestion pricing) is the best answer to road congestion problems. However, such a policy is rarely used, mostly because people see it as unfair in how it affects different income groups. We propose an innovative personalized public transport cashback mechanism to make congestion pricing more acceptable. Recent surveys in Riga and Vienna show that people are more willing to support the introduction of congestion pricing when it includes a cashback component.

Road Congestion Pricing and Its Discontent

Road Congestion Pricing

Traffic jams happen when too many cars at the same place and at the same time use a road of a limited capacity. Building new roads or lanes is expensive, especially in cities, and it only provides short- and medium-term traffic improvements, with little impact on congestion in the long term (Ossokina et al., 2023; Hymel, 2019). Duranton and Turner (2011) show that when major roads are expanded, more people start using them and, over time, congestion returns to the same level as before. Meanwhile, a travel mode shift from cars to public transport and bicycles also requires investments and is difficult to implement in practice.

Dynamic congestion pricing, when road tolls vary based on the time of day, is designed to spread out traffic flow over time without the need to expand road infrastructure (Small and Verhoef, 2007). Notably, this approach does not aim to reduce the total number of cars on the road. Instead, it encourages them to spread their travel times more evenly, ensuring that the road capacity can handle the traffic without congestion.

Dynamic congestion pricing typically works as follows: there is no charge at night, the toll is small in the early morning, then it gradually increases during the morning until it reaches its peak. The toll then decreases in the afternoon before rising again during the evening. This system works in a congestion zone, which is usually the busiest areas of a city. When a car enters the zone, video cameras automatically identify it without stopping the car. There are no toll booths on the streets – an electronic system calculates the toll based on the time of day and charges the driver automatically through a linked account. Cities can tailor the system to fit their specific geography and infrastructure, offering exemptions for certain vehicles and pass-through traffic (for practical examples, visit the Swedish Transport Agency’s website to learn more about congestion pricing in Stockholm and Gothenburg).

By reducing the number of cars during congested hours, such dynamic pricing benefits both the city and its residents:

  • (i) Drivers enjoy faster travel times as road toll allows them to gain time in exchange for money. For example, in the morning, drivers can leave for work later as they no longer need to account for time spent in traffic jams.
  • (ii) Non-drivers enjoy congestion-free neighborhoods with improved air quality and overall higher quality of life.
  • (iii) The city can tackle congestion without making large investments in new roads. The funds collected from drivers not only cover the toll system maintenance, but also contribute to the cost of the infrastructure they use. The funds may also be used to improve public transportation.

Low Public Acceptability

In light of the benefits of congestion pricing, it seems surprising that very few cities actually use it. Notable examples include London, Singapore, Stockholm and Gothenburg. New York City introduced its congestion charge on the 5th of January 2025, the first in the US. This stands in stark contrast to paid on-street parking, another transport policy measure that has been successfully implemented in almost every large city across Europe. The disparity arises because the general public often sees congestion pricing as an additional tax, believing it unfairly affects lower-income individuals. Presumably, low-income individuals have less flexible work schedules and fewer travel choices, making it harder for them to avoid traveling during high-toll periods (Selmoune et al., 2020). Moreover, they would spend a larger share of their income on road tolls compared to wealthier drivers, which makes congestion pricing a regressive policy.

Even though congestion pricing is not a tax and is not meant to redistribute funds, it may still appear as such to the public. This perception leads to vocal public resistance to road pricing which, in turn, discourages politicians from implementing the policy. Another reason for public skepticism is a lack of trust in politicians and municipal officials to manage the collected funds effectively, with concerns that the money may not be spent in ways that benefit the city.

Public Transport Cashback

Cashback Mechanism

To address the perceived unfairness of congestion pricing and fears about the misuse of collected funds, we propose a personalized public transport cashback mechanism – a novel approach that has not yet been implemented anywhere. Instead of collecting the tolls, we suggest immediately transferring the money back to drivers in the form of public transport vouchers or cashback. That is, when a driver pays road toll, almost the entire amount is credited directly to their personal public transport account/card as cashback, while a small portion of the toll is retained to cover maintenance costs of the road pricing system. The cashback can only be used to pay for public transport. Since the road toll is returned to drivers in the form of public transport cashback, there is no need for money redistribution by public authorities.

Our pricing mechanism retains the core feature of conventional dynamic road pricing: the road toll motivates drivers to adjust their travel times, helping to prevent traffic jams. The toll values are likely to be different though, as the toll now has additional value to drivers who might use the cashback for public transport. While this feature reduces the efficiency of the toll compared to conventional congestion pricing, the cashback mechanism also introduces a new beneficial property. By motivating some drivers to occasionally switch to public transport, it further reduces car use and helps ease congestion. The interplay between these two factors ultimately determines the required congestion toll values.

The cashback can be accumulated over several years and is non-transferable to prevent drivers from using their cars more often. The cashback mechanism would likely work for private cars only, though exceptions and specific features can be adjusted to local circumstances. Public transport companies are likely to benefit from additional revenue through increased ticket sales and unused, expired cashback. However, since public transport ticket prices do not always cover the full cost of providing the service, it is important to balance the additional costs of implementing the cashback mechanism with the expected revenue gains. This could potentially be done by reducing the cashback portion relative to the toll share retained for system maintenance.

However, congestion pricing with a cashback mechanism is not a standalone solution or a silver bullet. It works best when combined with improvements of the public transport network, as this encourages drivers to make regular use of their cashback.

Transport Survey Data

The key idea behind the cashback mechanism is that it gives drivers direct and transparent control of their money, which is expected to make road pricing policy more acceptable. Whether this holds true or not is an empirical matter. This was tested by considering the means of a representative survey conducted in Riga (Latvia) and Vienna (Austria) in the summer of 2024. The survey includes 1,000 residents in both capitals and their respective surrounding municipalities. It features questions about respondents’ socio-demographic characteristics, current travel options, commute patterns (including accompanying trips with children), and their political and social attitudes. It also includes two stated-choice experiments exploring the acceptability of congestion pricing and potential changes in travel behaviour if such pricing is introduced. While detailed data analysis is still ongoing, this policy brief highlights some intriguing preliminary insights.

In the survey, we ask the respondents whether they would vote in a referendum in favor of congestion pricing under four different scenarios for using the collected toll funds: (i) transferring them as a public transport cashback, (ii) sharing them equally among all city inhabitants, (iii) leaving the allocation decisions to local politicians, or (iv) using them to support eco-friendly transport. Respondents were familiarized with the topic before answering the question by participating in a stated-choice experiment about congestion pricing acceptability. The experiment included a detailed explanation of how congestion pricing works, along with a potential congestion zone map. Figure 1 shows responses from Riga, and Figure 2 from Vienna.

Figure 1. Responses from Riga. “Would you support congestion pricing in a referendum if the collected toll funds were used this way?”

Source: Representative survey in Riga in summer 2024.

Figure 2. Responses from Vienna. “Would you support congestion pricing in a referendum if the collected toll funds were used this way?”

Source: Representative survey in Vienna in summer 2024.

In Riga, the cashback option is the most popular, with more participants supporting than opposing it. The overall positive attitude towards congestion pricing with the cashback option suggests that Riga might already be ready to implement it. In Vienna, the cashback ranks a close second after the green transport option. This result shows that cashback might be a viable option also in Vienna.

Conclusion

To overcome public skepticism towards road congestion pricing, we propose a cashback mechanism. It involves returning toll money back to drivers as public transport cashback. The cashback mechanism has several benefits: drivers retain some control of their money, there is no need to redistribute collected toll funds, and it helps reduce congestion without major investments in road infrastructure. Surveys in Riga and Vienna in 2024 show support for the cashback option. While the specifics of such a solution should be tailored to each city’s needs, many cities struggling with congestion could benefit from implementing road congestion pricing with a public transport cashback mechanism.

Acknowledgment

This policy brief is based on a collaborative research effort by economists Sergejs Gubins from Riga (BICEPS) and Stefanie Peer and Martina Reggerova from Vienna (WU) as part of the “Tolls That Work” project, supported by the ERA-NET research grant. Agreement No ES RTD/2023/11. See project updates on the webpage:

https://www.wu.ac.at/en/spatialeconomics/projects/city-tolls-that-work

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

How Social Assistance Shapes Election Outcomes: The Case of Georgia

Posted on January 27, 2025 | Policy Brief

Protesters waving Georgian flags in front of the Parliament building in Tbilisi, Georgia, during a public demonstration following election outcomes.

This policy brief investigates the relationship between social assistance programs and election outcomes in Georgia, focusing on the 2024 parliamentary elections. Our regression analysis establishes a statistically significant link between an increase in social assistance beneficiaries and the vote share obtained by the incumbent Georgian Dream party. The results raise critical questions about the potential use of social assistance programs as a strategic political tool. Specifically, a 1 percentage point increase in targeted social assistance beneficiaries as a share of the population lead to an, on average, 0.5 percentage point increase in the Georgian Dream’s vote share, even after controlling for poverty-related factors. The findings recognize the dual impact of social assistance programs – alleviating poverty while shaping political behavior. They also underscore the need for ensuring that social assistance remains focused on addressing the needs of vulnerable populations without exerting undue political influence.

Introduction

The relationship between social assistance programs and electoral outcomes has gathered significant attention in both academic and policy circles, especially in the last decade. Social assistance programs, designed to support vulnerable populations, often carry political implications, particularly in developing democracies where incumbent governments may leverage these programs to secure voter loyalty. In Georgia, one of the largest components of social assistance is the targeted living allowance program, which, unlike other types of social assistance – such as those for individuals with special needs, internally displaced people, or elderly population –relies on assessing the beneficiaries’ poverty levels through proxy means testing (PMT). This makes subsistence allowance benefits vulnerable to biased, favorable selection by those in power. Allegations exist that the government may have strategically used this program, including increasing the number of beneficiaries in the lead-up to elections to secure votes or threatening existing beneficiaries with the withdrawal of their assistance based on their disclosed political preferences (Shubladze (2024); Japaridze (2023); Social Justice Center (2024)).

This policy brief explores the impact of social assistance on electoral outcomes in Georgia, specifically assessing whether increases in the number of targeted subsistence allowance beneficiaries during the 2020-2024 period influenced the votes received by the incumbent party in the 2024 parliamentary elections.

This analysis is especially important given the recent developments in Georgia’s political landscape. The 2024 parliamentary elections marked a critical juncture, with the Georgian Dream claiming to have secured 53.93 percent of the votes. Concerns over the fairness and transparency of the elections have been widespread. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) reported systematic election irregularities, including pressure on voters, media bias, unequal campaign conditions, and election-day practices that compromised the ability of some voters – including public sector employees and recipients of social assistance – to cast their ballots without fear of retribution.

Our regression analysis documents a positive relationship between the number of living allowance beneficiaries and the votes garnered by the incumbent party across Georgian municipalities, raising further concerns about the integrity of the electoral process, and the allocation of state funds.

Political Implications of Social Assistance Programs: A Global Perspective

The link between social assistance and electoral outcomes has been widely studied. Social assistance programs often serve a dual purpose: they alleviate poverty and provide tangible support to vulnerable citizens while also shaping political behavior, particularly voting patterns. These programs can enhance incumbents’ electoral support by fostering gratitude among recipients, signaling government competence in addressing social needs, or creating concerns among beneficiaries that their political preferences if exposed, may influence the government’s decisions when choosing the beneficiaries of social assistance.

Research by De La O (2013) provides a compelling case in the context of Mexico. Examining the Progresa/Oportunidades conditional cash transfer program, De La O find that the program led to an increase in both voter turnout and incumbent vote share.

Zucco (2013) contributes further evidence from Brazil, where the Bolsa Família conditional cash transfer program emerged as a cornerstone of electoral strategy. Zucco demonstrates that municipalities with higher proportions of cash transfer beneficiaries tended to favor incumbent candidates in three different presidential elections, establishing a clear link between social assistance and voting behavior.

Adding to this body of work, Layton & Smith (2015) provide further insight into the nuanced ways in which targeted social assistance programs influence voter behavior in Latin America. The authors theorize that such programs simultaneously mobilize non-voters and convert opposition supporters, with variations based on country-level political and programmatic differences.

In addition, recent research from Indonesia further illustrates the impact of social assistance budgets on electoral outcomes. A study by Dharma, Syakhroza, and Martani (2022) examines 212 regencies and cities in Indonesia where incumbents participated in local elections. The findings reveal a direct positive effect of social assistance spending on incumbent votes. The authors further claim that high political competition counteracts incumbents’ advantages and mitigates the effectiveness of such spending.

The international literature thus provides valuable motivation for exploring the Georgian case, where social assistance may play a similar role in shaping voting behavior.

The Georgian Context

The deeply controversial October 26, 2024, parliamentary elections in Georgia mark a pivotal moment in the country’s political history. According to the Central Election Committee of Georgia, the ruling party, the Georgian Dream, secured 53.93 percent of the votes, maintaining its dominant position in Georgian politics. However, the elections were accompanied by widespread allegations of electoral malpractice, casting a shadow over their legitimacy and raising concerns about the future of democratic governance in the country.

OSCE’s ODIHR provided a comprehensive observation of the electoral process, noting both positive aspects and critical shortcomings. While the elections were generally well-administered, ODIHR’s final report emphasized significant concerns related to the broader political environment. Key issues included the adoption of legislation that undermined fundamental freedoms, restrictions on civil society, and a pervasive atmosphere of voter intimidation. Specific election-day practices, such as pressuring voters and leveraging administrative resources, were highlighted as undermining the integrity of the process. The report also mentions instances in 16 municipalities where public sector employees and economically vulnerable groups, particularly those reliant on social assistance, faced pressure to support the ruling party. Such fear of losing social benefits or facing retribution at work creates an atmosphere where voters struggle to form independent opinions and vote independently.

Further scrutiny from independent analysts has shed light on systematic irregularities that suggest the elections may not have reflected the genuine will of the Georgian electorate. Gutbrod (2024) suggests that tactics such as vote buying, mass intimidation, and direct manipulation of electoral outcomes were employed, leading to statistical anomalies. Specifically, the Georgian Dream’s support increased disproportionately in precincts linked to reported violence and irregularities. Additionally, social assistance beneficiaries were identified as a target group for snowball mobilization, organized by individuals affiliated with the Georgian Dream – a method where participants are encouraged to mobilize or identify a certain number of additional people to expand voter outreach and engagement.

Social Assistance in Georgia

The Law of Georgia on Social Assistance outlines several types of social welfare programs aimed at addressing the needs of vulnerable populations. These include living allowance, reintegration assistance, foster care allowance, adult family member care allowance, non-monetary social assistance, and social package. Among these, the targeted social assistance program, commonly referred to as the “living allowance“, holds particular significance. This program is designed to provide financial support to families living in extreme poverty. Eligibility for the living allowance is determined through a proxy means test that evaluates the socioeconomic conditions of applicants, ensuring that the assistance reaches those most in need. For this policy brief, the focus will be on beneficiaries of the living allowance (hereafter social assistance beneficiaries), as their numbers and electoral behavior present a unique opportunity to analyze the intersection of social assistance and voting patterns in Georgia.

As of October 2020 (previous parliamentary elections’ date) 142,870 families in Georgia received social assistance, benefiting a total of 510,343 individuals. The total amount of social assistance transfers during this period amounted to 28,825,259 GEL. Over the next four years, leading up to the 2024 Parliamentary Elections, social assistance grew significantly. By October 2024, the number of families receiving assistance had increased by 25 percent to 178,107 families, while the number of individual beneficiaries rose by 34 percent, reaching 684,432. The most notable expansion occurred in the total amount of social assistance transfers, which surged by 143 percent to 69,936,512 GEL. This corresponds to a cumulative annual growth rate of 25 percent (Social Service Agency of Georgia, 2024).

In 2022, an important modification was introduced for social assistance beneficiaries aged 18 years to retirement age and without disabilities or serious health conditions, offering employment opportunities mainly, in the public sector with a salary of up to 300 GEL per month. These wages did not affect recipients’ existing social assistance benefits. Participants had the option to take suitable public sector jobs, formalize any informal employment, or, if formally employed in the private sector, provide necessary documentation. The modification covered also new beneficiaries who were not already formally employed. Notably, families or individuals enrolled in the program were guaranteed eligibility for a living allowance for four years, as their social assistance status would not be reassessed during this period.

As of October 2024, 50,962 families were enrolled in the program with guaranteed social assistance, accounting for 28.6 percent of all families receiving social assistance. The monthly spending of social assistance transferred to these families amounted to 22,766,706 GEL, representing 33 percent of the total social assistance transfers.

The significant increase in social assistance beneficiaries and the introduction of the 2022 program for employing social assistance recipients, guaranteeing them four years of social assistance transfers, highlight the growing scope and influence of targeted social welfare initiatives in Georgia. While these developments may have addressed pressing socioeconomic challenges, they also raise important questions about the potential political motivations. Specifically, the substantial increase in the number of beneficiaries and the guaranteed eligibility linked to employment programs could be interpreted as mechanisms to foster voter loyalty and mobilization in favor of the ruling party.

Methodology and Results

To examine the relationship between the increase in social assistance beneficiaries and electoral outcomes, particularly the votes garnered by the incumbent Georgian Dream party, we employ a regression analysis framework. This statistical method allows us to explore whether and to what extent the growth in social assistance recipients is associated with the changes in the vote share of the incumbent party. Since social assistance depends on the varying levels of poverty across municipalities, we incorporate control variables that isolate the effect of economic well-being, minimizing potential confounders.

The study utilizes data from two primary sources: information on social assistance recipients, including families, and individuals, and the total amount of transfers across municipalities, was retrieved from the Social Service Agency of Georgia. This dataset covers 64 municipalities (and self-governing cities) in Georgia. From 2022, data includes families and individuals guaranteed to retain their socially vulnerable status for four years under the State Program for Promoting Public Employment. Second, election data was sourced from the Central Election Commission of Georgia, covering both the 2024 and 2020 parliamentary elections. The 2024 data covers the results from both electronic and non-electronic voting. Key variables include the number of registered voters, total votes cast, and votes obtained by the Georgian Dream and opposition parties. This election data is also aggregated at the level of the 64 municipalities (and self-governing cities).

Information on poverty levels in Georgian municipalities is not publicly available; therefore, we utilize control variables for employment and economic activity with the latter proxied by either the municipalities’ tax revenues or the value added generated in the private sector. Information on employment and value added are gathered from the National Statistics Office of Georgia, while data on tax revenues is retrieved from the Ministry of Finance.

The following table describes the results of the regression analysis.

Table 1. Regression analysis results

Source: Author’s calculations.
Note: The values in parentheses indicate the p-value. *Significant at the 10 percent level; **Significant at the 5 percent level; ***Significant at the 1 percent level.

The first regression (column 1) investigates the relationship between the change in social assistance beneficiaries as a share of the population and the change in the Georgian Dream party’s vote shares, displaying a significant relationship between the two. Specifically, the coefficient (0.49) is significant at the 5 percent level, suggesting that a 1 percentage point increase in social assistance beneficiaries as a share of the population, increases the vote share for the Georgian Dream by approximately 0.49 percentage points.

To control for the effect of poverty, we first use employment rates in 2023 (the latest available data) as a proxy for poverty. Column 2 presents these results. In this specification, the coefficient for the change in social assistance beneficiaries remains significant at 5 percent level and its value (0.47) remains consistent with the previous specification. The model further suggests that poverty is also positively and significantly (at the 1 percent level) associated with incumbent votes – the higher the poverty (lower employment) in municipalities, the higher the Georgian Dream vote share.

In the next step (column 3), we model the relationship between the change in the Georgian Dream’s vote share, change in employment as a share of the population, mobilized local tax revenues per capita, and the change in number of social assistance beneficiaries as a share of the population. Change in employment, calculated as the difference between 2019 and 2023 employment levels (as a share of the population), is used as a proxy for change in poverty.  Tax revenues per capita for 2023 reflect economic activity across municipalities and self-governing cities, serving as a proxy for well-being. As seen in the table, change in employment is not statistically significant, however, the amount of tax revenues mobilized across municipalities is modestly significant. The coefficient for change in social assistance beneficiaries is once again statistically significant and consistent with the other specifications in terms of magnitude (at 0.51).

As a robustness test (column 4) we replace the previously used proxy for economic well-being (tax revenues), with the private sector value added per capita for 2023, which significantly (at the 1 percent level) correlates with an increase in the vote share for the incumbent party. Changes in employment remain insignificant. Importantly, the coefficient for change in social assistance beneficiaries remains positive (0.53) and statistically significant at the 1 percent level.

The discussed regression models were tested for a different dependent variable as well. In addition to observing the impact of change in vote shares, we also analyzed the impact on the number of votes cast for the Georgian Dream party between the 2020 and 2024 Parliamentary Elections. Changes in social assistance beneficiaries remain a significant explanatory variable in this specification as well.

The estimated impact of social assistance is consistent across all models, both in magnitude and significance, reinforcing the finding that increases in living allowance beneficiaries are strongly associated with higher vote shares for the Georgian Dream party, underscoring the critical role of social assistance in shaping electoral outcomes.

Conclusion

The analysis demonstrates a strong and statistically significant relationship between the increase in social assistance beneficiaries and the vote share obtained by the incumbent Georgian Dream party in the 2024 parliamentary elections. Even after controlling for poverty and economic well-being, the results highlight the impact of social assistance in shaping electoral outcomes. The findings suggest that a 1 percentage point rise in social assistance beneficiaries as a share of the population translates into a 0.47–0.53 percentage point increase in the Georgian Dream’s vote share. When contextualized within the overall election results, these estimates suggest that the expansion of the targeted social assistance program may have garnered the Georgian Dream an additional 45 ,500 to 50,000 votes, representing 2.2–2.5 percent of the total votes.

The results raise critical questions about the potential use of social assistance programs as a strategic political tool. The robustness of the relationship across multiple models suggests that the observed trends are not merely byproducts of economic conditions but reflect a deliberate link between social assistance expansion and electoral outcomes. The implications are significant for democratic governance in Georgia. The strategic use of social welfare programs risks undermining public trust in the electoral process and highlights the need for greater transparency and accountability in the implementation of social assistance policies. Recognizing the dual impact of these programs – alleviating poverty while potentially shaping political behavior – will be critical in fostering fairer electoral conditions and ensuring that social assistance remains focused on addressing the needs of vulnerable populations without undue political influence.

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

Development Day 2024: Integrating Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia into the European Union

Posted on January 20, 2025 | Policy Brief

Flags of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia alongside EU flags in a conference setting.

For Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, integration into the European Union (EU) is a pathway to modernization, economic development, and increased resilience against authoritarianism. At this year’s Development Day Conference, hosted by the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), policymakers, researchers, and experts convened to discuss the shared challenges, opportunities, and reforms required for these countries’ successful EU accession.

This policy brief draws on the insights from the conference, briefly outlining the discussions across panels and presentations on governance reforms, hybrid threats, economic transformation, and security challenges.

The Geopolitical Context for Enlargement

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has intensified the European Union’s strategic focus on enlargement. Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia find themselves at a crossroads, where integration into the EU is not merely aspirational but essential for safeguarding sovereignty and ensuring economic and political stability. The urgency of this enlargement stems from the need to counteract Russian aggression and bolster the EU’s geopolitical standing.

At the opening sessions of the Development Day Conference, three special guests offered their respective countries’ perspectives. Yevhen Perebyinis, Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, underscored how Ukraine’s integration process aligns with its defense of European values against Russia’s aggression. Cristina Gherasimov, Moldova’s Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, highlighted Moldova’s efforts to advance reforms while countering persistent Russian hybrid threats, including systematic election interference. Christian Danielsson, Sweden’s State Secretary to the Minister for EU Affairs, accentuated the necessity of ensuring that the EU is ready for enlargement, something political leaders now see as an imperative in the shadow of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Similarly, discussions emphasized Georgia’s historical and policy-oriented commitment to Europe, despite recent democratic backsliding and a recent pivot toward Russia.

Challenges on the Pathway to EU Accession

The integration paths of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia face numerous challenges. Critical areas for alignment with EU standards include governance reforms, anti-corruption efforts, and institutional capacity building. Moldova has made strides in public administration reform and jumped significantly on the Corruption Perceptions Index from 120th place in 2019 to 76th in 2023. However, persistent gaps in judicial independence and public procurement transparency remain hurdles. Similarly, Ukraine has enacted sweeping reforms under extraordinary wartime circumstances, reflecting a persistent and widespread commitment to European values. Yet, continued progress in judicial and financial oversight is essential, with the administrative framework in these areas needing improvement in both countries.

Russia’s hybrid warfare poses a persistent and evolving threat to democratic resilience across the region. Moldova’s elections in 2024 showcased large-scale, sophisticated interference by Russian actors. This interference began well before election day and continues in the form of disinformation campaigns and energy blackmailing in the Transnistria region. In Georgia, Russian influence compounds the challenges of domestic political unrest, particularly as the ruling party engaged in substantial electoral fraud and manipulation to secure its position in the 2024 October elections. These challenges highlight the need for robust countermeasures, including enhanced cybersecurity and strengthened democratic institutions across the candidate countries. It also points to the need for support from the international community, especially in the case of Georgia, where protesters are currently taking to the streets to challenge the widely recognized electoral fraud.

Economic transformation and alignment also remain a critical challenge. Ukraine’s economy, suffering wartime devastation, requires extensive reconstruction, with the cost of infrastructural damage alone nearing its annual GDP. Ukraine’s vast agricultural sector, a major player in global markets, will require careful integration into the EU to address compliance costs and alignment with the Common Agricultural Policy while maintaining its competitive edge. Moldova faces significant challenges in effectively communicating the benefits of EU integration to its population, a critical issue in countering Russian influence and maintaining public support for reforms. Despite clear economic progress, such as the increase in Moldovan exports to the EU, many Moldovans remain skeptical about the long-term benefits of EU alignment. This skepticism is particularly pronounced in regions like Gagauzia, where pro-Russian sentiment is strong and local populations are vulnerable to disinformation and propaganda.

As emphasized by multiple panelists, targeted communication strategies are vital to ensuring that the benefits of EU integration are understood across populations. Concrete examples—such as enhanced economic opportunities, improved infrastructure, and access to EU funding—must be clearly communicated to counteract Russian narratives and build broad-based support for EU accession.

In this regard, pre-accession funding offers a potentially transformative tool. The successful use of pre-accession funding in Poland in the 1990s and early 2000s demonstrates the potential for such resources to modernize infrastructure, connect markets, and build institutional capacity, a capacity that has later proved pivotal to overcoming democratic backsliding. Poland serves as a reminder that alignment and integration may take time, but also clearly showcases the economic and social benefits it can yield.

During the conference, security concerns were at the core of the enlargement discussion, with several panelists emphasizing NATO’s historical role as a critical security complement for EU member states. However, Ukraine’s potential EU accession may advance without parallel NATO membership. This raises significant challenges, as the absence of NATO guarantees leaves Ukraine vulnerable to further Russian aggression. Panelists highlighted the urgent need for the EU to adopt concrete security measures, such as strengthened hybrid defense capabilities, cybersecurity frameworks, and coordinated responses to disinformation—threats already witnessed in Moldova and Georgia. Additionally, ensuring Ukraine’s security would require increased military and financial support from EU member states to safeguard territorial integrity and maintain resilience against Russia, argued a necessity by several panelists.

The Opportunities of Enlargement

The integration of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia into the European Union offers profound opportunities for these states. It represents access to the single market, pre- and post-accession funding, and vital structural support that can accelerate modernization efforts. Overall, this can reduce the countries’ infrastructure gaps and cause an increase in foreign direct investment. Beyond economic gains, EU support drives crucial institutional reforms, enhances public administration capacity, and provides a framework for addressing corruption and strengthening the rule of law—key challenges across all three countries.

For the EU, enlargement would entail strategic benefits aligned with its new geopolitical focus and long-term economic goals. Ukraine’s reserves of critical raw materials, including lithium and titanium, are essential for Europe’s green transition. Furthermore, Ukraine and its defense industry offers strategic benefits to Europe by bolstering collective security. Its agricultural capacity remains pivotal not only for the EU but for global food security, and its IT sector provides additional growth potential. Moldova and Georgia, on the other hand, offer untapped market potential and workforce integration opportunities, which could strengthen the EU’s competitive edge. Enlargement also represents a critical opportunity to counter the threat from Russia, manifesting the Union as a geopolitical leader committed to stability, democracy, and shared values.

However, as voiced throughout the conference, the EU must prioritize clear communication of these benefits. Concerns about increased competition in existing member states need to be met with transparency while communicating the long-term economic and security advantages of enlargement. Involving the business perspective in the enlargement process and ensuring that both candidate countries and current EU citizens and businesses see tangible benefits early in the process will be key to sustaining both momentum and public support. Such messaging could include the fact that the EU is originally a peace project and that the counterfactual scenario to the current enlargement ambitions is Russia and its wars creeping even closer to the Union’s border. In regard to the business sector, it could be emphasized that enlargement associated risks can be met with risk sharing instruments and credit guarantees.

As emphasized by several speakers, the EU also needs to ensure that it is ready for enlargement in terms of capacity. As the EU was not initially built to be this large, a further expansion requires the Union to critically reflect on how to ensure it will stand up for the rule of law and all member states’ adhesion to EU principles in the years to come.

Concluding Remarks

How to facilitate the accession of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia into the European Union was the topic for discussion at the 2024 Development Day. The discussions highlighted the substantial early progress and rapid reforms undertaken by Ukraine while being a country at war. Moldova’s steady progress toward its ambitious 2030 accession target underscores its commitment to reform, though challenges remain in securing public trust and countering Russian interference. Georgia, meanwhile, serves as a warning of how quickly democratic gains can erode, with political turmoil and Russian influence threatening its European path. These examples underscore the need for sustained support and clear communication of the benefits of EU integration. Panelists and participants also underscored that integrating these nations is not merely about expanding the EU—it is a vital response to ongoing geopolitical threats, in particular from Russia, and an affirmation of the EU’s foundational values.

Ultimately, the enlargement of the EU to include Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine holds significant potential, both for the aspiring members and the EU itself. However, as the discussions at Development Day 2024 showcased, such enlargement requires robust partnerships, unwavering and early support, and a recognition that integration strengthens the EU as a whole, ultimately positioning the EU as a much-needed major democratic geopolitical actor.

List of Participants

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

Breaking the Link: Costs and Benefits of Shutting Down Europe’s Last Gas Pipeline from Russia

Posted on January 13, 2025 | Policy Brief

A pressure gauge showing zero pressure in a Russian pipeline gas system, symbolizing the halt of gas transit to Europe.

Ukraine’s decision to halt Russian gas transit from January 1st, 2025, marks the end of decades of direct gas links between Europe and Russia. The EU is unlikely to face significant short-to-mid-term impacts, as Russian pipeline gas imports have already dropped sixfold since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, uneven exposure to this shock has already created internal tensions within the EU. Further, increased reliance on liquefied natural gas may also slow the green transition. In the region, Moldova faces severe supply challenges and Ukraine will lose transit revenues. Targeted support and stronger cooperation within the EU and with neighboring countries, especially EU candidates, will be essential. In turn, the halt will make Russia face not only financial but also geopolitical losses.

On January 1st, 2025, Ukraine halted the transit of Russian gas to Europe following the expiration of a five-year agreement between Russian Gazprom and Ukrainian Naftogaz, marking a major shift in Europe’s energy landscape. This decision ended decades of reliance on Ukrainian pipelines for Russian gas (see Figure 1). Despite Ukraine announcing its intent not to renew the agreement well in advance (Corbeau, 2023), uncertainty lingered until the contract’s final days. Similarly, the broader implications remain uncertain. This policy brief explores the short-, mid-, and long-term effects of this change on the region.

Figure 1. Russian pipeline network to Europe, 2022-2025

Map showing the Russian pipeline gas network to Europe between 2022 and 2025, highlighting disruptions, shutdown points, and operational routes that impact Russian gas to Europe and energy security in Europe amid pipeline sanctions on Russia.

Source: Euromaidan Press

A “Political” Pipeline

The Ukrainian transit route has long been a key corridor for direct gas deliveries to Europe, playing a crucial role in shaping the EU energy security policy. However, this route has also been the site of major disruptions, particularly during the 2006 and 2009 gas disputes between Russia and Ukraine. These incidents exposed Europe’s reliance on transit routes and its vulnerability to geopolitical conflicts, prompting political responses despite the relatively localized impact. To address these vulnerabilities, the EU introduced measures aimed at diversifying energy sources and strengthening internal energy markets (see, e.g., Le Coq and Paltseva, 2012). Early efforts focused primarily on improving the internal energy market’s efficiency while diversification advanced slowly. This changed drastically during the gas crisis that began in mid-2021 and escalated with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. These events forced the EU to alter its gas import strategy, driving further investments in liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure and new pipelines, such as the Southern Gas Corridor enabling gas imports from Azerbaijan (see e.g., Regulation (EU) 2022/1032 and Regulation (EU) 2024/1789).

As a result, despite the significant burden of soaring energy prices and investment costs, the EU has made remarkable progress in reducing its reliance on Russian piped gas. Indeed, the share of Russian natural gas (both pipeline and LNG) in total EU gas imports, which increased 35 percent in 2015 to 41 percent in 2020, dropped to just 9 percent by 2023. However, the progress was non-uniform among member states (see Figure 2). In turn, by 2024, Russian gas via Ukraine accounted for just 5 percent of EU’s gas supply, with significant reliance limited to Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia (where it still made up between 65 percent and 78 percent of imports, and, between 12 percent and 22 percent of total energy consumption).

Figure 2. Share of Russian pipeline and LNG gas in total gas imports across the EU

Map showing the decline in Russian pipeline gas and LNG imports across the EU from 2015 to 2023, highlighting changes in Russian gas to Europe and their impact on energy security in Europe.

Source: Eurostat, 2024. The gas imports include data for both pipeline and LNG imports. The 2024 gas imports data was unavailable at the time of writing this brief. However, several EU member states further decreased their consumption of Russian gas in 2024. For example, while Sweden and Finland were importing Russian LNG both in 2020 and 2023, possibly for re-export, as shown in Figure 1, they both stopped this practice from June 2024.

The Immediate Impact of the Transit Stop

The EU’s reduced reliance on Russian gas has significantly softened the immediate impact of the transit halt. Gas prices showed only a slight reaction, with no clear evidence linking the transit stop to price changes. Even if one would attribute the cumulative gas price increase over 2024 to the expectations of the pipeline shutdown only, the effect was much smaller than during the 2021 gas crisis or the sharp price spikes of 2022, as illustrated in Figure 3. Ample storage levels – 71.8% as of January 01.2025, well within acceptable levels for this time of the year – have further limited the immediate impact.

Figure 3. EU gas prices, 2021-2025

Line chart showing EU natural gas prices from 2021 to 2025, highlighting price spikes after reduced Russian pipeline gas supply and the effect of pipeline sanctions on Russia’s gas exports to Europe.

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

Effectively, the only part of the region facing an immediate and significant impact due to the termination of the gas transit deal has been Moldova. The pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria, previously fully reliant on subsidized Russian gas via Ukraine and representing 70 percent of Moldovan gas consumption, has been cut off since January 1, 2025, due to the lack of alternative routes. This has also significantly affected the right-bank-of-Dniester Moldova as 80 percent of its electricity supply was previously provided by the Russian gas-based MGRES plant in Transnistria (Anisimova, 2024). In response, Chisinau declared a state of emergency in the energy sector, introducing energy-saving measures and rationing. In turn, Transnistria halted most industrial production and faced widespread blackouts (Kieff, 2025).

The Mid-Term Costs and Benefits for Involved Parties

In the mid-term, the impact will likely broaden and take various forms. Moldova, Ukraine, and Europe are expected to face primarily financial consequences, while Russia will also bear significant geopolitical costs.

Moldova will continue to be the most affected country. Russia could attempt to reroute gas to Transnistria via Turkstream and reversed flow on the Trans-Balkan pipeline. However, since this route briefly passes through Ukraine before reaching Moldova, it would require a transit agreement, an unlikely scenario under current conditions.

Alternatively, the Trans-Balkan route could be used to import gas from Azerbaijan or LNG from Turkey and Greece (Halser and Skaug, 2024). However, this would require political will from both Moldova and Transnistria, and involve substantial costs, likely unaffordable singlehandedly for Moldova or Transnistria, especially as the latter has long received Russian gas for free. Financial, as well as infrastructural support from the EU could help address these challenges.

Ukraine faces an annual loss of transit fees due to the halted agreement amounting to approximately $450 million/year. Formally, the loss should have been around $1.2 billion annually but Russia payed only for 15 bcm/a of gas transit since 2022, instead of 40 bcm/a under the ship-or-pay transit agreement, citing Ukraine’s refusal to transit gas via the Russia-occupied Sokhranivka entry point. This dispute is in international arbitration but is unlikely to be resolved before the war ends (see  Reley, 2025). The absence of a transit gas flow could also undermine the competitiveness of Ukraine’s gas storage services for the EU (Ukraine’s Naftogaz has Europe’s largest underground facilities with a capacity of 30.9bcm, 10bcm of which is available to foreign traders.)

At the same time, the option of renewing the transit agreement could boost Ukraine’s leverage in future talks with Russia. However, this leverage weakens with the EU’s ability to cope with its remaining reliance on Russian gas – greater diversification in EU imports would reduce the importance of Russian pipelines and, consequently, Ukraine’s bargaining position.

Europe’s mid-term impact from the transit halt will be non-uniform, with Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary facing the highest energy bill increases. However, the effect is expected to be limited due to its well-connected internal energy market, which can absorb shocks and distribute shortages across member states. The shortage is likely to be compensated by increased LNG purchases, which would somewhat increase gas prices due to the current LNG market rigidity. However, with LNG supply capacity increasing already in 2025 and projected to grow by 40 percent by 2028 without a matching rise in demand (IEEFA, 2024), the price increase is not going to last long.

However, the EU may also face a political cost. Expectations of price increases and Slovakia’s loss of transit fees could strain the EU unity, as differing energy dependencies risk deepening intra-EU tensions and complicating policy coordination (see, e.g., here and here). This underscores the importance of Europe’s “one voice” energy policy, which has gained momentum in recent years.

Russia faces significant financial and geopolitical losses from the transit halt. Financially, it risks losing approximately $6.5 billion annually in revenue at current prices (Keliauskaitė and Zachmann, 2024) unless flows are redirected. While temporary price increases – for the sales of Russian gas via Turkstream, and Russian LNG exports to Europe, could offset some of these losses – these are not going to last.

The greater impact lies in Russia’s diminished geopolitical leverage. Historically, Russia has used gas as a political tool, leveraging its dominant position and access to multiple pipeline routes to exert influence over transit countries and dependent nations. This influence would now be lost. Further, with the loss of a Ukrainian transit, Russia’s pipeline connection to EU gas markets now relies solely on Turkey, increasing its dependency on Turkey and potentially altering its alliance dynamics due to higher transit costs. Additionally, as Azerbaijani gas emerges as a viable alternative for Europe, Russia’s bargaining power in its geopolitical relations with Azerbaijan is likely to weaken further. This erosion of influence marks a significant shift in Russia’s regional energy strategy.

Long-Term Effects: Increased Dependence on LNG and the Green Transition

The halt of the Russian gas transit is facilitating the implementation of the RePowerEU goal of fully eliminating EU Russian fossil fuels dependency by 2027. However, its long-term effects, particularly on the timing and success of the green transition, warrant attention. Natural gas is widely considered a transitional fuel, essential for maintaining energy reliability in an energy system relying heavily on intermittent renewables. For the green transition to succeed, it is critical to avoid infrastructure lock-ins, displacement of low-carbon technologies, and the creation of stranded assets.

The shift from Russian gas to the LNG market will likely require substantial infrastructure investments in the EU and LNG-producing countries, increasing the risk of long-term dependency. Geopolitical dynamics add further complexity – e.g., the U.S., which supplied 50 percent of Europe’s LNG in 2023, has advocated for long-term purchasing agreements that could delay green technology adoption and extend the EU’s reliance on fossil fuels. This is already a reality as some EU member states having signed long-term gas contracts with Qatar, lasting beyond 2050, which may hinder efforts to accelerate the green transition.

Conclusion

The impact of the gas transit halt varies depending on whether it is seen from a short-, medium-, or long-term perspective. While all parties involved face losses, the impact of the halt on the EU is drastically different from what it could have been a few years ago due to the dramatic efforts undertaken in the last few years. Further, there are also potential benefits to consider. Notably, the EU has the opportunity to play a crucial role in reducing the economic and political burdens on neighboring countries, particularly those seeking EU membership. By offering targeted financial support and promoting deeper cooperation, the EU can help these nations manage the challenges posed by the halt. In turn, the halt will imply not only financial but also geopolitical losses for Russia.

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

What decision did Ukraine make regarding Russian pipeline gas transit? How has the EU’s reliance on Russian pipeline gas changed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? What are the potential consequences of the EU’s increased reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) following the decline in Russian pipeline gas imports? Read the policy brief “Breaking the Link: Costs and Benefits of Halting Russian Pipeline Gas to Europe” to explore the impact of halting Russian pipeline gas transit on Europe, Ukraine, and energy security.

Christmas Time in Poland Through the Lens of Gender Equality

Posted on December 18, 2024 | Policy Brief

Christmas tree with festive red and gold decorations on a street during Christmas time in Poland, with people in winter clothes walking in the background.

In the Christmas season, we examine how people in Poland allocate their precious minutes in the days before and during the holidays. We use data from the Polish Time Use Survey and show that, in several aspects of time use, Christmas is indeed special, and that there are notable differences in how men and women allocate their time to work and pleasure. Women spend more time than men on household chores and preparing meals, and in the latter case the imbalance is particularly striking: on average women spend two hours more per day cooking ahead of the holidays.

Introduction

Every year, billions of people around the world spend the end of December enjoying time with friends and family. Many celebrate Christmas on the 25th and 26th, while others bid farewell to 2024 and welcome a new year. Celebrations and fun are often preceded or combined with intensive preparations—cooking, cleaning, shopping, and travel. Time is of the essence, and as with other major celebrations, the 2024 Christmas season is likely to feel too short, intensive, and possibly stressful.

In this policy brief we look at how people in Poland allocate their precious minutes during these special days. Every ten years the Polish Central Statistical Office collects detailed data on time use, interviewing over 35 000 individuals, most of whom fill in diaries of their time allocation over two different days. This results in over 70 000 diaries with information divided into 144 ten-minute intervals. We use the latest available survey wave from 2013 in which we have information from 72 967 correctly completed diaries, on average almost two hundred diaries per day (the 2023 data is not yet available for research purposes). Particularly interesting is that the data collection in 2013 was carried out in the days running up to Christmas and continued through the 2013 holiday season. This gives us a unique chance to examine the allocation of time over this period, and specifically compare how men and women spend their time in preparation for celebrations, and during the holidays. We compare Christmas time allocation to diaries filled in on weekdays and Sundays in November to show, on the one hand, that the way people in Poland spend their holidays differ in several ways from a regular Sunday, and that allocation of time is particularly unique in the days running up to Christmas. This relates both to how much time is spent on getting ready – preparing meals, cleaning the house, etc., as well as to how these chores are allocated between men and women.

Time Use Diaries in Poland

Polish time use data is unique in its scope and content. During the year of data collection over 35 000 participants complete detailed time use diaries on two days – one weekday and one weekend day. Every ten-minute slot is assigned a category for the ‘main activity,’ with the option to record a ‘secondary activity’ for multitasking. The 163 detailed categories range from broad types like “sleeping” or “time devoted to main job” to specific activities such as “repairing household equipment” or “handcrafts”. The large number of diaries and narrow activity focus enables unique analyses of time use and allows studying specific days (for an example, see Adena et al., 2023).

In 2013 the diaries cover 355 days and on these ‘active’ days the number of completed diaries varied from 116 (on 6th November) to 562 (6th January). The diaries were completed also on the 24th and 23rd of December respectively, (239 diaries) and on both days of Christmas (25th and 26th of December, 250 diaries). These special four days – which happened to start on a Monday – are compared to four November weekdays, the consequent days starting on Monday the 25th of November (549 diaries), and two November Sundays (17th and 24th of November, 737 diaries).

Is Christmas Time Different?

The 163 different categories of time use are aggregated into 10 groups: (1) preparing meals, (2) household work and cleaning, (3) meals, meetings and celebrations, (4) church and prayer, (5) watching TV, using computer, (6) walks, games and hobbies, (7) shopping, (8) work and study, (9) personal care, (10) sleeping.

These broad categories include activities which are similar and/or related to the broad headings. For example, ‘household work and cleaning’ includes vehicle maintenance or cleaning the basement, while ‘meals, meetings and celebrations’ include also ‘phone calls with family and friends’ or ‘reading, playing and talking with children’. The broad activity categories were identified by examining the most common activities given the time allocated by respondents to the listed activities in November and December. Other less common activities were then added to those main categories. The average number of minutes allocated to the ten categories in the weekdays and Sundays of November, the two days before Christmas, and the Christmas holidays is presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Time Allocation: average number of minutes per day allocated to ten aggregate activity categories

Notes: ‘November weekdays’: 25th-28th November 2013; November Sundays: 17th and 24th of November 2013. Numbers represent unconditional averages.
Source: Own calculations using the Polish Time Use Survey 2013.

As evident there are interesting differences in the pattern of time allocation between the four groups of days which seem to be a result of discernible differences in behaviour. On ‘usual weekdays’ in late November respondents spend on average about 70 minutes on meal preparations and almost 90 minutes on housework. This increases significantly on the 23rd and 24th of December, respectively, to nearly three hours (169 minutes) and over two hours (125 minutes). As expected this then drops substantially over the two days of Christmas. In terms of housework and cooking, Christmas days differ slightly from a typical Sunday. However, even on these days, cooking and household tasks do not come to a complete halt: there is still work to be done! It is clear, though, that the brunt of the preparation is conducted in the days leading up to Christmas. It should be noted also that in Polish tradition the main Christmas celebration usually takes place in the evening of the 24th, although preparations often run all the way up to that evening meal. We can observe for example that the average working time on 23rd-24th December is much lower compared to late November and the time spent on attending mass or prayer is already significantly higher. The preparations on those two days seem to ‘eat in’ to the amount of sleep and time spent in front of the TV. We see more time devoted to meals and celebrations compared to normal weekdays in November, although the values listed are averages over the two days including the 23rd.

The average allocation of time on the two days of Christmas stands out in a few categories. In particular more time is allocated to pleasure: ‘walks, games and hobbies’ take up 171 minutes per day on average over the Christmas holidays, which is over an hour more compared to a normal Sunday. Watching TV is another favourite Christmas pass-time (191 minutes), although people seem to watch slightly less TV on Christmas compared to November Sundays. While meals and celebrations take up more than four hours per day on average, this is only slightly longer than on a normal Sunday (263 vs 247 minutes), and Christmas sleeping patterns are also very similar compared to Sundays – with little catching up on sleep lost in the lead-up to the holidays.

Work and Pleasure over Christmas – Gender Differences in Time Allocation

In Figure 1 we present the average allocation of time in Poland in the run up to Christmas and over the two holidays separately for men and women. The figure depicts the ten aggregated categories, and for each set of days the outer ring represents the average time allocation among women, while the inner ring shows the average time allocation among men. We see some striking differences. Women spend almost 3.5 hours on average on cooking on each of the two days before Christmas, which is nearly 1.5 hours more compared to men. The difference in household work is not as striking, and men tend to spend more time on pre-Christmas shopping (35 vs 26 minutes per day on average). Men also spend more time at work during these two days (189 vs 110 minutes), although much of the time which is not spent on cooking seems to go to leisure: on average men watch more TV and spend more time eating and socializing.

Work and leisure are also unequally divided between men and women on the two days of Christmas. Women spend more than 2 hours per day on average on cooking and cleaning, while men spend only about 50 minutes per day. Over Christmas men spend more time in front of the TV, but they also devote more time to paid work, with an average of about 100 minutes per day. Celebrations and meals over the Christmas season naturally take up much of the time, and in this case the disproportions are not as large, though both in the run up and during Christmas men tend to spend slightly more time ‘at the table’ than women. The difference is more pronounced for the days running up to Christmas (23-24th December) which is noteworthy, given that the evening on the 24th is traditionally the main family celebration time in Poland.

Figure 1. Christmas time allocation among women (outer rings) and men (inner rings)

Notes: A: preparing meals; B: household work and cleaning; C: meals, meetings and celebrations; D: church and prayer; E: watching TV, using computer; F: walks, games and hobbies; G: shopping; H: work and study; I: personal care; J: sleeping. The rings represent a full 24-hour day with all reported activities collected into ten aggregate activity categories. The values are averages for the samples interviewed on 23rd and 24th of December 2013 (Figure 1a) and on the two days of Christmas (25th and 26th of December 2013). Source: Own calculations based on the Polish Time Use Survey 2013.

Is Christmas Time Special? The Gender Perspective

In this section we examine the data in a more formal way by adjusting the patterns of time use of men and women for differences in age, education and household size. We focus on six out of the ten categories distinguished above and regress time (in minutes) within these categories separately for the four sets of days detailed in Table 1: weekdays in November (25th-28th), Sundays in November (17th and 24th), as well as for 23rd-24th December and 25-26th December. The estimates of the coefficient on the female indicator included in these regressions reflect how much more or how much less time women spend on a specific activity category compared to men, conditional on the controls.

Figure 2. Women vs men: differences in time allocation in November and over Christmas

Notes: The bars represent coefficients on the female dummy estimated in linear regressions of time spent on a specific activity in a specific set of days. Control variables include age, education and household size. The specific days are;
‘November: weekdays’: 25th-28th November 2013; ‘November: Sundays’: 17th and 24th of November 2013.
Source: Own calculations using the Polish Time Use Survey 2013.

In Figure 2 we present the results for the six time-use categories, in each case showing the estimated coefficient on the female indicator for the four sets of days. Since the samples are quite small (see Table 1), the standard errors of the estimates are relatively large. However, they still allow us to infer interesting patters of time use differences between men and women. The most visible difference concerns the time allocated to preparing meals in the run up to Christmas. While women spend more time preparing meals in all four-day categories, the days just before Christmas are clearly special (Figure 2a). On average on the 23rd-24th of December, women spend almost two hours longer on this activity per day compared to men, while on a ‘normal’ Sunday or weekdays this difference is ‘only’ 51 and 61 minutes, respectively. Interestingly, women continue spending more time than men on meals preparation also over the holidays, although the extra minutes in this case resemble a usual Sunday. The latter similarity seems to be repeated in the estimates related to ‘household work and cleaning’ (Figure 2b) – women once again spend more time doing chores: 18 minutes more than men on a normal Sunday and 21 minutes more over Christmas. In this category we do not see any statistically significant imbalances during the days leading up to Christmas (the point estimate however suggests that also on those days women ’out-perform’ men by about 15 minutes per day). On the other hand, while (except for November Sundays) the differences are not statistically significant, women seem to spend more time on ‘walks, games and hobbies’ compared to men and the difference is highest over the Christmas holidays (35 minutes per day, see Figure 2c). Since the day is 24 hour long for everyone, we should see some differences going the other direction – activities where women spend less time compared to men. Once again we see some striking patterns in the days running up to Christmas with women spending much less time compared to men on ‘meals, meetings and celebrations’ (60 minutes, see Figure 2d) as well as on ‘work and study’ (80 minutes, see Figure 2f).

With all the work that seems to be going into preparing meals and other housework, it is perhaps good to see that at least on the 25th and 26th of December women spend as much time as men on Christmas celebrations (Figure 2d). It should be noted though that men get some additional ‘passive’ rest in front of the TV on those days (Figure 2e). Differences in TV watching patterns over Christmas are similar to those observed on ‘normal’ Sundays and the days just before the holidays – men watch TV by an average of 57 and 41 minutes/day more than women. Differences between men and women in the time spent on ‘work and study’ just before Christmas are not very different compared to ‘normal’ weekdays when men on average work nearly 100 minutes per day more compared to women. For this category Christmas days seem different from a ‘normal’ Sunday: women tend to work less during the holidays compared to men (by about 46 minutes/day), but we see virtually no difference in labor market activities on a normal Sunday.

Conclusion

If patterns of time-use have not changed much over the past ten years, Poles will spend almost four and a half hours per day on average enjoying meals and celebrations during the coming Christmas. They will add to this, on average, slightly more than three hours in front of the TV and about the same time enjoying walks, games and hobbies. The holiday will be preceded by intense preparations – in particular regarding preparing meals (170 minutes per day on the 23rd and 24th of December) and household work and cleaning (125 minutes per day). As we show in this brief, in 2013, the time burden of holiday preparations and household chores related to Christmas, was certainly not shared equally between men and women. Women spent much more time on those activities, especially in the days running up to Christmas, but also on the 25th and 26th of December.

With the upcoming release of the 2023 Polish time use data we will be able to examine whether patterns of Christmas time use have changed over the last decade. However, how our precious time over this year’s holiday season will be allocated is entirely up to us.

Merry Christmas!

Acknowledgment

Data used for the analysis in this brief come from the 2013 Polish Time Use Survey provided by the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS). GUS bears no responsibility for the presented results and interpretation. I am very grateful to Daniel Hamermesh for his suggestions and comments.

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

Gender Board Diversity Across Europe Throughout Four Decades

Posted on December 16, 2024 | Policy Brief

Top-down view of a team analyzing Gender Board Diversity statistics in a corporate setting.

Despite comprising a large share of the workforce, women remain a minority in corporate boardrooms across Europe. While progress has been made in recent decades among public (listed) firms, diversity lags behind in private corporations. This policy brief showcases evidence from the Gender Board Diversity Dataset (GBDD) – a newly released, unique data source which covers a comprehensive sample of European private and public corporations over multiple decades. Uniquely, the GBDD encompasses private (non-listed) companies, a novel method for identifying the gender of board members based on linguistic and cultural heuristics, and a cross-country harmonization of firm-level data. These features make the GBDD a great tool for answering policy-related questions and enable cross-country and cross-sector comparisons. As such, the GBDD can help ensure that policies aimed at promoting gender board diversity are scientifically well grounded.

Background

The labor force participation rate of women in Europe has been rising over the last few decades and is approaching the participation rate of men. However, the proportion of company board positions held by women is still significantly lower. This issue has generated heated debate among academics (e.g. see Nguyen et al., 2020, for a recent literature review) as well as among the general public. It has also prompted several countries to mandate gender quotas for some companies (typically public companies or the largest limited liability companies). For example, in Norway, large and medium-size firms are mandated to guarantee that both women and men account for at least 40 percent of board members. Given the increasing proliferation of mandated gender board quotas across countries, it is imperative that the public be aware of the main facts concerning gender board diversity in a broad set of companies i.e. those that make up the largest proportion of the economy, offer the majority of jobs, and often remain outside the scope of quota legislation.

The Gender Board Diversity Dataset

The Gender Board Diversity Dataset (GBDD), created by Drazkowski, Tyrowicz, and Zalas (2024), provides a novel cross-country perspective on women in management and supervisory boards over the past four decades. The GBDD is based on firm-level registry data from Orbis, which the authors have harmonized to ensure comparability across countries. A key feature of the GBDD is that it covers registry information from both public and private (non-listed) companies. This makes it a comprehensive source of information as the majority of board positions, as well as the majority of jobs in general, are in private rather than public companies. Data on private companies are scarce, and the GBDD is one of very few data sources containing this information across Europe. The GBDD is based on a sample of over 28 million unique firms from 43 European countries observed, on average, for around seven years. It contains information about nearly 59 million individuals who sit on management and supervisory boards and covers the period between 1985 and 2020.

Another key component of the GBDD is the identification of the gender of board members, which is a key innovation compared to other studies that use Orbis data. While the original data do not specify the gender of individuals until 2010, they do include names and surnames, which the creators utilized to perform gender identification. By applying cultural and linguistic heuristics, they were able to determine the gender of over 99 percent of the board members in their sample. For example, in some languages (e.g. Czech), surnames end with a gender-specific suffix, while in other languages (e.g. Polish), given names of women end with a vowel.

The GBDD reports several measures of gender board diversity computed for countries over time, as well as for sectors in each country over time. As such, it is a unique source of information about gender board diversity in corporate Europe, and it can serve as a useful guide for policymakers and analysts. The data are publicly available and can be downloaded in various formats from the website of the authors’ research group: https://grape.org.pl/gbdd.

The Absence of Women in Boardrooms

A key insight emerging from the GBDD is that, despite women holding on average 22 percent of all board positions in a given industry, more than two-thirds of all firms report no women in their boardrooms. More specifically, 68 percent of sectors across the European continent over the past several decades have not had a single firm with at least one woman in their boardrooms. Figure 1 shows the fraction of firms in a sector with no women in the boardroom. This is a new measure in the literature. The x-axis shows the proportion of such firms in a sector, ranging from 0 (all firms in that sector have at least one woman on their boards) to 1 (women are absent from all corporate boardrooms in the entire sector). The y-axis shows the relative number of sectors in the sample for each of the observed fractions.

Figure 1. Fraction of firms with no women in the boardroom

Note: The figure details the distribution (countries and years are combined). Source: Drazkowski, Tyrowicz, and Zalas (2024).

This finding points to clusters of companies with potentially significant obstacles to gender board diversity. Since lack of representation could be considered a major barrier to diversity, policies aimed at promoting even minimal representation of women among board members could have a significant impact on overall diversity.

The Substantial Differences Between Industries and Countries

The average firm-level share of women on corporate boards is only around 16 percent in the IT sector, while it is 35 percent in the education, health, and care (EHC) sector. Figure 2 shows two distributions of the average firm-level shares of women among board members: one for the IT sector and the other for the EHC sector. The distribution for the EHC sector is clearly to the right relative to the distribution for the IT sector, which means that across multiple countries and years, women tend to constitute a much smaller proportion of board members in the IT sector than in the EHC sector. Furthermore, the proportion of observations with no female board members (the spike at value 0) is much higher in the IT sector than in the EHC sector.

Figure 2. Distribution across sectors

Note: Distribution of the firm-level share of women on boards across countries and years in two broad sectors. The following categories make up the two sectors. IT: 61, 62, 63; Education, health & care: 85, 86, 87. Source: GBDD.

Decomposing the data by country also highlights significant differences. For example, firms with no female board members tend to be more prevalent in Poland than in Finland. This is illustrated in Figure 3, where the distribution for Poland is shifted to the right relative to the distribution for Finland.

Figure 3. Distribution across countries

Note: Distributions of the share of firms in an industry with no female board members (Finland vs Poland). Source: GBDD.

The above data suggest that there may exist a set of sector- and country-specific barriers to gender board diversity. Therefore, policies tailored to addressing those specific barriers could be more appropriate than blanket economy-wide policies.

Diversity Has Mildly Increased

The GBDD can also be used to assess how gender board diversity has evolved over time. Generally, there was an increase in diversity in the 1990s, stagnation in the 2000s, and another increase in the 2010s. However, in the case of supervisory boards, the recent increase in the proportion of female board members was not accompanied by an increase in the number of women on supervisory boards. While the full explanation of this observation would require further research, one possible interpretation is that supervisory boards might have become smaller over time, with male board members accounting for most of the decline, thus mechanically increasing the share of female board members.

Conclusion

Despite the increase in gender diversity among company board members over the last three decades, women still comprise a smaller share of board members and, in many cases, are completely absent from boards. While examining the reasons for this is beyond the scope of this policy brief, the high prevalence of firms with no women on their boards suggests the possibility that significant barriers to entry for women still exist, with this total lack of representation in many companies potentially being one. Policymakers interested in fostering an inclusive and fair society could focus their attention on understanding and removing barriers to board participation faced by women. Furthermore, identifying and tackling country- and sector-specific barriers to board diversity could be particularly impactful. The GBDD can be used by researchers and non-researchers alike to gain further insights into this topic, thus contributing to evidence-based policymaking.

Acknowledgement

The research outlined in this policy brief was funded by Norwegian Financial Mechanism 2014–2021 (grant # 2019/34/H/HS4/00481).

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

Behavior and Information: Does Media Promote Consumerism?

Posted on December 2, 2024 | Policy Brief

Two women holding shopping bags with "Black Friday" labels on an escalator, symbolizing media consumerism during shopping events.

Consumer behavior is well recognized as a vital component in dealing with climate change. In this regard, it is important to understand both which mechanisms promote pro-environmental behavior, and which instruments stimulate unsustainable consumer activities. This policy brief summarizes the results from a study on how media use can promote consumerism. Based on a 2022 online-survey of Belarus’s urban population, the study empirically assesses how exposure to information promoting overconsumption can impact unsustainable actions. The findings show that consumerism media use has a positive effect on unsustainable consumption behavior. To mitigate the impact and promote sustainable behavior, media could be obligated to provide information about the negative footprint of unsustainable consumption.

Introduction

Consumer behavior holds large potential when it comes to climate change and other environmental problems. According to Moran et al.  (2020), changes in consumer behavior could lead to a European Union (EU) carbon footprint reduction by approximately 25 percent.

There are two conflicting streams of literature on the effects of media use on consumer behavior. The first strand states that media use exerts a positive effect on pro-environmental attitudes and behavior (Holbert et al. 2003; Wang & Hao, 2018) while the second declares that media use (in particular, the Internet) promotes consumerism (Simeone & Scarpato, 2020).

The objective of the study underlying this policy brief is to contribute to this debate by exploring whether media use positively affects unsustainable consumption behavior, drawing on data from a nationally representative online survey in Belarus.

Behavior and its Determinants

The study’s conceptual approach rests on the Attitude-Behavior-Context (ABC) theory (Guagnano et al., 1995; Gardner and Stern, 1996; Stern, 2000) which states that behavior is a product of attitudinal variables (norms, beliefs, values), contextual factors (e.g., interpersonal influences, media, community expectations, monetary incentives and costs) and personal capabilities (e.g., knowledge and skills).

With the ABC theory in mind, and also driven by prior empirical studies (e.g., Huang, 2016), the study explores how unsustainable consumption behavior can be affected by materialistic values, environmental self-efficacy (in the study perceived as a combination of values and personal knowledge), and consumerism media use.

We define unsustainable consumption behavior as conspicuous buying, which describes acquiring expensive, and luxury goods or services in order to impress others and gather prestige through objects (Rook, 1987; Pellegrino & Shannon, 2021).

Media use in general means exposure or attention to both traditional media, such as newspapers, TV, and radio, and the Internet (Huang, 2016). Consumerism media use in our study refers to the exposure on these media channels to information promoting a luxurious lifestyle and the idea that buying more leads to happiness.

According to Hurst et al. (2013), materialism can be more easily targeted and changed than personality traits, which are more stable. Besides, theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that materialistic values are negatively associated with pro-environmental behavior. To measure materialism as a value we employ the short version of the Materialistic Values Scale (Richins, 2004), which assesses beliefs about the importance of material possession.

Environmental self-efficacy, also known as perceived consumer effectiveness, refers to an individual’s belief in their ability to make a meaningful impact through their efforts (Ellen et al., 1991). We hypothesize that environmental self-efficacy should be negatively associated with unsustainable consumption behavior.

To operationalize the above constructs (see Table 1), the study uses data from a nationally representative online survey among the urban Belarusian population aged 18-75, conducted in April 2022 by MIA Research on behalf of BEROC. The sample size includes 1029 participants.

Table 1. Descriptive statistics of each construct’s indicators

Note: a Four-point Likert scale (1=never, 4=always). b Four-point Likert scale (1=never; 4=very often; 0=I do not use this type of media). c Five-point Likert scale (1=strongly disagree, 5=strongly agree).

As seen in Table 1, consumers in Belarus are mostly exposed to the information promoting luxurious lifestyle and buying more goods to be happy on the Internet, relative to other media channels. Another interesting outcome is that Belarusian consumers are more likely to perceive material possessions as a source of happiness compared to the other domains of the classical material value triad; success, centrality, and happiness (Richins and Dawson (1992) and Richins (2004), where success refers to using possessions to evaluate the success of oneself and others centrality refers to the central role of possessions in a person’s life, and happiness reflects the belief that happiness and life satisfaction are achieved through possessions and their acquisition.

Assessment of the Unsustainable Consumption Behavior Model

The study estimates the structural equation model for unsustainable consumption behavior. The main hypothesis of the study is that consumerism media use might exert a positive influence on unsustainable consumption behavior. Materialistic values as well as environmental self-efficacy can also affect unsustainable consumption behavior. As both our values and beliefs may to some extent determine the context in which we live, we assume that materialistic values and environmental self-efficacy might impact consumerism media use. Additionally, we assume that materialistic values can have a negative influence on environmental self-efficacy. Figure 1 details the path diagram with maximum-likelihood estimates of fully standardized coefficients.

Figure 1. Path diagram of the structural equation model explaining unsustainable consumption behavior

Note: standardized coefficients; solid line denotes significant path; dashed line denotes insignificant relationships. *** p<0.001, ** p<0.01; *p<0.05

The results show that consumerism media use has a positive, and significant effect on unsustainable consumption behavior (0.124; standard deviation change). The possible channel leading to these findings is the emotions at play.  Advertisements promoting a luxurious lifestyle and buying more things to be happy can elicit quite strong emotions in consumers related to happiness and success in life. Around two decades ago a large body of literature in consumer research emerged on the role of emotions in decision-making (for an overview see Laros & Steenkamp, 2005). Recent experimental studies about adoption of sustainable innovations (e.g. Contzen et al., 2021 (a); Contzen et al., 2021 (b)) also prove the role emotions play in consumer behavior.

Materialistic values are another significant contributor to unsustainable actions (0.249 standard deviation change). As expected, materialistic values also exert a positive and statistically significant effect on consumerism media use (0.165 standard deviation change). However, contrary to our expectations, environmental self-efficacy does not exert a direct negative impact on unsustainable behavior (dashed line in Figure 1).

Conclusion

The results from the structural equation model show that consumerism media use exerts a positive moderate effect on unsustainable consumption behavior of the urban population in Belarus. This effect is statistically significant.

To reduce the negative environmental impact of unsustainable behavior, policymakers should, thus, target regulation that downplays the emotional appeal of ads promoting excessive consumption and stresses the adverse environmental effects of consumerism. This could include, for example, policies requiring ads to contain information about the environmental footprint of the product, from production to its full lifecycle.

References

  • Contzen, N., Handreke, A. V., Perlaviciute, G., & Steg, L., 2021 (a). ‘’Emotions towards a mandatory adoption of renewable energy innovations: the role of psychological reactance and egoistic and biospheric values’’. Energy Research & Social Science, 80, 102232.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102232.
  • Contzen, N., Perlaviciute, G., Sadat-Razavi, P., & Steg, L., 2021 (b). ‘’Emotions toward sustainable innovations: A matter of value congruence’’. Frontiers in Psychology, 12. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.661314
  • Ellen, P. S., Wiener, J. L., & Cobb-Walgren, C., 1991. ‘’The role of perceived consumer effectiveness in motivating environmentally conscious behaviors”. Journal of public policy & marketing, 10(2), 102-117. https://doi.org/10.1177/074391569101000206.
  • Gardner, G. T., & Stern, P. C., 1996. “Environmental problems and human behavior”. Allyn & Bacon.
  • Guagnano, G. A., Stern, P. C., & Dietz, T., 1995. “Influences on attitude-behavior relationships: A natural experiment with curbside recycling”. Environment and behavior, 27(5), 699-718. https://doi.org/10.1177/0013916595275005
  • Holbert, R. L., Kwak, N., & Shah, D. V. (2003). Environmental concern, patterns of television viewing, and pro-environmental behaviors: Integrating models of media consumption and effects. Journal of Broadcasting & Electronic Media, 47(2), 177-196. https://doi.org/10.1207/s15506878jobem4702_2.
  • Huang, H., 2016. “Media use, environmental beliefs, self-efficacy, and pro-environmental behavior”. Journal of Business Research, 69(6), 2206-2212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.12.031.
  • Hurst, M., Dittmar, H., Bond, R., & Kasser, T., 2013. “The relationship between materialistic values and environmental attitudes and behaviors: A meta-analysis”. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 36, 257-269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2013.09.003.
  • Laros, F. J., & Steenkamp, J. B. E., 2005. “Emotions in consumer behavior: a hierarchical approach”. Journal of business Research, 58(10), 1437-1445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2003.09.013.
  • Pellegrino, A., & Shannon, R., 2021. “Materialism’s Influence on Unsustainable Consumption Across Social Networking Sites: A Systematic Review”. International Journal of Business and Economics Research, 10(4), 125. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijber.20211004.13.
  • Richins, M. L., & Dawson, S. (1992). “A Consumer Values Orientation for Materialism and Its Measurement: Scale Development and Validation”. Journal of Consumer Research, 19, 303-316.
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/209304
  • Richins, M. L., 2004. “The material values scale: Measurement properties and development of a short form”. Journal of Consumer Research, 31, 209e219. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/383436.
  • Rook, D. W., 1987. “The buying impulse”. Journal of Consumer Research, 14, 189-199.
  • Simeone, M., & Scarpato, D. (2020). Sustainable consumption: How does social media affect food choices?. Journal of Cleaner Production, 277, 124036. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124036.
  • Stern, P. C., 2000. “New environmental theories: toward a coherent theory of environmentally significant behavior”. Journal of social issues, 56(3), 407-424.
  • Wang, Y., & Hao, F. (2018).  Does internet penetration encourage sustainable consumption? A cross-national analysis. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 16, 237-248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2018.08.011.

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

EU Accession and Sustainability Challenges for Ukraine’s Agricultural Sector

Posted on November 18, 2024 | Policy Brief

Combine harvester in a Ukrainian wheat field symbolizing EU accession impacts on agriculture.

Recently the EU opened accession negotiations for Ukraine. Apart from the trade benefits of having access to a large and wealthy EU market, Ukraine’s agricultural producers in particular, will have to comply with and implement a complex and demanding EU acquis in agriculture. Together with the Common Agricultural Policy, this includes regulation of markets and standards in farming practices, animal and plant health, food safety, and environmental and animal welfare. The potential additional compliance costs from EU accession may undercut Ukraine’s agricultural competitiveness and supply growth, crucial for feeding a growing population. However, in this policy brief, we show that these costs are not critical and that there is a potential for agricultural producers to simultaneously increase their output and contract harmful environmental impacts, which in turn can compensate for the additional compliance costs.

Introduction

The European Council granted Ukraine candidate status in June 2022 and eventually opened accession negotiations in December 2023. For the Ukrainian agricultural sector, an EU membership would bring trade benefits from having access to a large and wealthy EU market. At the same time, Ukraine would have to comply with a complex and demanding EU Acquis in agriculture (hereafter called EU agricultural acquis). This, together with the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), includes regulation of markets and standards in the areas of farming practices, animal and plant health, food safety, and environmental and animal welfare (Nivievskyi, 2024).

Complying with these regulations would entail additional costs for agricultural producers, raising concerns about the comparative advantage of Ukrainian agriculture. If these effects are strong enough, it could, in turn, hamper Ukraine’s agricultural supplies growth, crucial for feeding a growing global population.

While the evidence on the expected compliance costs is very scarce (see e.g. EU Commission, 2014), it shows they would be in the range of up to an additional 10 percent of the total costs. This cost increase, however, does not seem to ruin Ukraine’s comparative advantage in agriculture. Moreover, in this policy brief, we demonstrate that producers of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine have the potential to improve their efficiency by increasing their output by almost 20 percent and simultaneously contracting harmful environmental impacts by 16 percent. Such improvements can compensate for additional EU agricultural acquis compliance costs for Ukraine’s agricultural producers.

Relevance

Ukraine’s agricultural sector plays a key role domestically and internationally. It is noticeably dominated by crops, mainly by highly competitive grains and oilseeds. Agriculture alone accounts for about 10 percent of Ukraine’s GDP, but together with upstream (e.g. agricultural machinery) and downstream (e.g. food processing) industries, the entire agri-food sector’s share amounts to roughly 20 percent of GDP. The agri-food sector accounted for 60 percent of Ukraine’s total exports in 2023 with Ukraine’s shares in global corn and wheat trade reaching almost 20 and 10 percent, respectively.

At the same time, agriculture is among the top five sectors of the Ukrainian economy contributing to Nitruos Oxide (N2O) emissions in the country (SSSU, 2018). Since it generates not only desirable outputs but also environmentally undesirable ones (such as GHG emissions, pollution from applied chemical fertilizers and pesticides etc.), the negative outputs should be both considered in the assessment of the sector’s performance.

The existing empirical literature places the main focus on the economic aspects of the agricultural sector’s performance in Ukraine, more specifically on technical efficiency and total factor productivity. A recently published study (Halytsia, Vrachioli, Nivievskyi, Sauer, 2024) we undertake the first attempt to incorporate undesirable outputs of agricultural production in the analysis of Ukrainian agricultural producers’ efficiency and provide empirical evidence on how they perform from a combined economic and environmental perspective. This policy brief summarizes the study’s results.

Data and Methodology

To estimate the environmentally adjusted efficiency of crop producers, we use farm-level accounting data from 2017-2019, collected by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The analysis is conducted for cereals (including wheat, barley, maize and others) and sunflower production since they are the major crops in terms of sowing land and output shares and given their importance for Ukrainian agricultural export.

To account for both desirable and undesirable outputs of crop production (environmental bads in our study are N2O emissions originating from the usage of mineral fertilizers and CO2 emissions from fuels’ consumption), the production technology is formalized in the form of a hyperbolic distance function. This gives the maximum linear expansion of a desirable output vector and contraction of an undesirable output vector for a given input vector. Parametric estimation (deploying a so-called stochastic frontier model) of the distance function yielded hyperbolic efficiency estimates that reflect the producers’ ability to expand good outputs and simultaneously contract environmentally undesirable ones to achieve maximum environmentally adjusted economic efficiency.

Empirical Results

The results from the econometric analysis reveal that the average environmentally adjusted economic efficiency estimate for crop producers in Ukraine is 0.84 (efficiency estimates are bounded between 0 and 1). This suggests that, on average, producers of cereals and sunflowers in Ukraine can improve their production results by increasing crop output by 19 percent (1/0.84 = 1.19) while simultaneously contracting undesirable output by 16 percent (1–0.84 = 0.16) in order to be fully efficient, i.e. have their output level on the frontier of the production technology (Figure 1).

The obtained environmentally adjusted economic efficiency level is fairly comparable to the efficiency values estimated in empirical studies for crop producers in other Eastern European countries, more specifically Poland (Gołaś et al, 2020; Stępień et al., 2021).

Figure 1. Graphic synthesis of the study’s findings

Source: Authors’ presentation.

Policy Implications and Recommendations

Performance Improvement

The results from the empirical analysis show that there is room for Ukrainian crop farmers to improve their environmental and economic performance. The following policy interventions can be helpful in facilitating this improvement:

  • establishing clear standards for the quality of chemical fertilizers, promoting organic ones and robust agrochemicals management and monitoring systems
  • promoting the adoption of climate-smart agricultural technologies, such as, for instance, fertigation (which can be especially effective in the steppe agro-climatic zone where most Ukrainian crop production is concentrated and which is noticeably affected by changing climatic conditions)
  • governmental programs for energy saving in agriculture to help reduce the amount of farm CO2 emissions.

Implementation of these measures can contribute to closing the efficiency gap, bring more sustainable agricultural production growth and help farmers compensate for the anticipated costs of EU legislation compliance regarding environment, animal welfare, and food safety.  The latter, in turn, entails not only costs but also a number of benefits. Potential benefits from implementing environmental regulations are, for instance, input savings ( e.g. in fertilizer or pesticide costs), additional revenues (higher prices and increased consumer demand for agricultural products produced sustainably) and extension programs financed through public funds (Mettepenningen et al., 2009).

Data Collection Improvement

Key limitations of this study stem largely from issues related to data availability. More specifically, there is no data available on organic fertilizer application, specification of the types of used pesticides, or details on farm characteristics (such as farm economic size, land type, environmental subsidies, etc.). These data would enable a robust and comprehensive estimation of the environmentally adjusted economic efficiency of agricultural producers, accounting for a broader range of undesirable outputs and incorporating determinants of inefficiency into the analysis.

Currently, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine’s annual statistical survey forms do not contain questions which enable the collection of the above mentioned data. Enhancing farm-level data collection will be necessary to align Ukrainian statistical databases with Eurostat, given Ukraine’s candidate status for EU membership.

The importance of collecting data on farms’ environmental performance is supported by the ongoing transition in the EU from a farm accountancy data network to a farm sustainability data network, which aims to collect rich microeconomic data not only on farms’ income and business activities but also information on their environmental and social sustainability performance.

Conclusion

Over the two decades prior to Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion, Ukraine developed into an increasingly important global supplier of staple food.

In this policy brief, we quantify the improvement potential for the performance of crop producers in Ukraine from both economic and environmental perspectives and highlight that potential efficiency improvement could compensate for the additional EU agricultural acquis compliance costs that Ukraine’s agricultural producers are expected to face upon Ukraine becoming a full EU member.

Acknowledgment

This policy brief is based on the academic article Assessing the Environmental Performance of Agricultural Production Using a Parametric Approach: An Application for Crop Producers in Ukraine by Olha Halytsia, Maria Vrachioli, Oleg Nivievskyi and Johannes Sauer, published in Eastern European Economics.

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

“Active Parent”: Addressing Labor Market Disadvantages of Mothers in Poland

Posted on November 12, 2024 | Policy Brief

A working mother in Poland multitasking with her child, representing Active Parent Poland.

In 2023 only one out of four children aged 0-3 years was covered by the Polish system of formal childcare. Traditional social norms with regard to provision of childcare at home, together with high costs of existing formal and informal childcare arrangements constitute important constraints with regard to labor market participation among mothers with the youngest children. While labor market activity rate among women aged 25-49 years stands at 84 percent overall, it is more than 20 percentage points lower for mothers with children aged 1-3 years. In this policy brief we provide an overview and an evaluation of “Active parent”, a recently introduced policy aimed at supporting earlier return to work after birth among mothers in Poland. We argue that the success of the program will be strongly determined by the extent to which it manages to stimulate growth of high-quality formal childcare for those aged 0-3 in the next few years.

Gender Gaps in Employment and Childcare in Poland

The average labor market activity rate among women aged 25-49 in Poland stands at 84 percent, which is slightly above the EU average (by 2 p.p.; see Figure 1). The rate, however, differs substantially by age group, and even more by the number and age of children. For childless women just below 30 years, the activity rate almost exactly matches the rate for men (88 percent vs 90 percent). However, among women with children, and especially among those with the youngest child being between 1 and 3 years old, this number drops to 62 percent. For fathers with such children, the activity rate however stands at 98 percent. Women gradually return to work when the youngest child is growing up – 3 out of 4 of those with a child aged 4 to 6 years are active in the labor market, and this share grows to 84 percent for mothers of teenagers (aged 13-14 years). At the same time women in Poland are much less likely to work part-time than women in the EU on average (7 vs. 28 percent, respectively; Eurostat, 2021). Rates of part-time employment are higher if women have more and younger children, though not by much (11 percent for mothers of 3+ children, 10 percent when a child is up to 3 years old; PEI, 2022).

While in most Polish households with children both parents are working for pay, traditional gender norms still largely prevail with respect to providing childcare or handling household duties. According to a survey conducted by the Polish Economic Institute (PEI), in only 18 percent of double-earner families do both parents take care of a child to the same extent (Polish Economic Institute 2022). For 68 percent of such families, it is the mother who provides most care. In only 1 in 10 families the father is the main care provider.

Figure 1. Labor market activity rates in Poland in 2022

Source: Authors’ compilation based on: PEI, 2022; Eurostat.

Traditional attitudes towards childcare responsibility are clearly visible in the actual gender split of parental leave in Poland. Despite the introduction of a non-transferable 9-week long parental leave dedicated to fathers (out of the total of 41 weeks of parental leave) on top of a two-week paternity leave, the division of care duties for the youngest children has essentially remained unaffected. While 377 000 mothers claimed parental leave benefits in 2021, only 4 000 fathers decided to stay at home with their child (Social Insurance Institute, 2021). Besides, many fathers still do not exercise their right to the fortnight of the paternity leave. According to the PEI survey conducted among parents of children aged 1-9 years, 41 percent of fathers reported virtually no work gap after the birth of their child and further 43 percent acknowledged only a short break from work (up to 14 days). On the other hand, 85 percent of mothers took a work break after childbirth of more than 8 months. For 40 percent it lasted between 12-18 months and for 28 percent the separation from work exceeded one and a half years.

Evaluating the Consequences of the “Active Parent” Program

To address the resulting disadvantages for mothers on the labor market the current Polish government introduced a program called “Active parent” in October 2024. The program is targeted at parents of children aged 12 to 35 months and consists of 3 options. The highest benefits in the program amounting to 350 EUR per month, are granted within the “Active at work” option to households in which parents are active on the labor market. For couples, the minimum work requirement is half-time work for each parent, while lone parents are required to work full-time. The same monthly amount can be granted if the child is enrolled in institutionalized childcare (“Active in nursery” option), though in this case the benefit does not exceed the cost of the nursery. This option covers both formal public or private nursery as well as semi-formal care provided in “kids clubs”. Finally, in case the child stays at home with a non-working parent (“Active at home” option), the family receives 115 EUR per month.

The main objective of the program is to increase the number of women returning to work after the period of maternity and parental leave (which in Poland cover the first 12 months of a newborn), before the child becomes eligible for kindergarten (where a place for each child aged 3 to 6 years is to be guaranteed by the local government). It is worth noting that after exhausting the parental leave, Polish parents are entitled to up to 3 years of childcare leave. Though this is unpaid, many parents, once again almost entirely mothers, opt for staying at home, often due to the lack of alternative forms of childcare. For children under the age of 3, formal childcare is highly limited. In 2023, nursery places were available only to one out of four children aged 0-3 years (CSO Poland). Additionally, these places are unevenly accessible throughout the country – in 2023 formal childcare for the youngest kids (public or private) did not exist in as many as 45 percent of Polish municipalities (CSO Poland). At the same time, while family help with childcare in Poland is still provided on a massive scale, it is limited only to those who have parents or other family members living close by, already in retirement and without other caring obligations (e.g. for older generations).

Within the new program parents who receive the “Active at work” benefit have complete discretion of how to use these funds. Many may choose to send the child to a formal childcare institution, but the lawmakers also expect a surge in undertaking formal contracts with grandparents or other relatives – including those already in retirement. There’s an additional benefit embedded in this particular solution, namely social security contributions resulting from contracts concluded with “a carer” (regardless of if it is a third person or a family member) which are covered by the state. These contributions are added to the carer’s pension funds and translate into higher retirement benefits – with regular recalculations of pension funds among those already retired and higher expected pension benefits for those still below retirement age.

A recent policy report (Myck, Krol and Oczkowska, 2024), evaluated the impact of the “Active parent” program using the microsimulation model SIMPL. The analysis (based on the Polish Household Budget Survey from 2021) focused on the estimation of the expected costs of the program to the public budget and the distribution of financial gains among households. We find that families eligible to receive support, i.e. those with children aged 12-35 months, are concentrated in the upper half of the income distribution (12.6 percent among the richest households and only 5.4 percent living in the poorest households). Thus, taking the observed work and childcare use patterns from the data we find that the average net gains related to the entire “Active parent” program are also concentrated among the richer households (see Figure 2).

Figure 2. Average net monthly gain from the “Active parent” program, assuming no change in parental behavior in reaction to the roll-out of the program

Source: Authors’ calculation with SIMPL microsimulation model based on the Polish Household Budget Survey 2021 data, indexed to 2024. Note: Introduction of the new program automatically withdrew the existing support targeted at families with children in the respective age range: “Family Childcare Fund” of 115 EUR/month for families with the second or next child aged 12-35 months and the co-payment for nursery up to 90 EUR/month. 1 EUR = 4.3 PLN.

Households from the highest income decile group on average gain 220 EUR per month, while those from the poorest income group receive 170 EUR per month. In relative terms, these gains correspond on average to as much as 17 percent of their income, while for the former group the gains do not exceed 4 percent of their income. When disaggregating by the three options of the program, eligible households from the bottom part of the distribution receive much higher gains from the “Active in nursery” or “Active at home” options, as these households are much less likely to have both parents working.

Clearly, some parents may adjust their work and childcare choices in reaction to the introduction of the program, which, in fact, is one of its key objectives. If a family decides to take up work or send their child to a nursery, they become eligible for higher support. Rather than receiving 115 EUR from the “Active at home” option, they become eligible for up to 350 EUR under the other alternative options. In almost 200 000 out of the overall 550 000 families with an age-eligible child, one of the parents (usually the mother) is observed to be out of work. Using this, we estimate the likelihood of taking up work among these non-working mothers and conditional on the expected probabilities of employment we assigned additional families to the two more generous options of the program – either to “Active at work” (those with highest work probability) or to “Active in nursery” (those with lowest work probability). This allows us to evaluate potential changes in the cost and distributional implications of the program under different scenarios. Table 1 presents a set of “gross” and “net” costs of selected combinations of parental reactions. The “gross” costs correspond to the total expenditure of the “Active parent” program, while the “net” costs account first for the withdrawal of previous policies (see note to Figure 2), and second for the budget gains related to taxes and social insurance contributions paid by the parents who are simulated to take up work.

Table 1. “Active parent”: aggregate costs to the public budget under different assumptions concerning work and childcare adjustments among parents

Source: see Figure 2.

Assuming no change in parental behavior (0 percent increase in work and 0 percent increase in enrollment in nursery), the total, “gross” cost of the program for the public finances amounts to 1.72 bn EUR, on average, annually. Savings related to the withdrawal of existing policies lower this cost by 0.5 bn EUR. Any modelled increase in nursery enrollment (with no concurrent reaction in the labor market) means an increase in both the “gross” and the “net” costs, while on the other hand an increase in labor market participation of the non-working parent (when nursery enrollment is held constant) expands the “gross” costs but reduces the “net” costs due to higher taxes and contributions paid in relation to simulated additional earnings.

The final distributional household effects of the program will depend on the actual reactions among parents. However, according to our simulations, the families who are most likely to either increase employment of the second parent or sign up their child for a nursery, and, thus, gain from  the “Active at work” or “Active in nursery” options, are those currently located in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th income decile group in the distribution (for more details see: Myck, Krol and Oczkowska, 2024).

Conclusion

The main objective behind the introduction of the new “Active parent” scheme is to increase the labor market participation among mothers with the youngest children. As the program aims to facilitate balancing professional careers with family life among parents, it can also be expected to contribute to increases in the fertility rate, which has recently fallen in Poland from 1.45 in 2017 to 1.16 in 2023 (CSO Poland).

The success of the “Active parent” program should be evaluated with respect to three important indicators:

  • the resulting increase in the number of mothers who have taken up work,
  • the increase in the number of children registered for nurseries,
  • and, related to the latter – the increase in the availability of childcare places in different Polish municipalities.

It is worth noting that the “Active parent” program was introduced in parallel with the prior “Toddler +” program that aimed at creating new childcare institutions and more places in the existing ones in 2022-2029 in Poland. Central funding was distributed to reach these goals among local governments and private care providers. However, a 2024 midterm audit of the “Toddler +” program demonstrated the progress to be “insufficient and lagging” (Supreme Audit Office Poland, 2024). The “Active parent” program will play an important role in providing additional stimulus to the provision of new childcare places for the youngest kids in different Polish regions, which should help the “Toddler +” program to finally gather momentum. In the medium and long run, the development of high-quality formal childcare for children below 3 years will be a crucial determinant of an increase in early return to work among mothers.

Acknowledgment

The authors wish to acknowledge the support of the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) under the FROGEE project. The views presented in the Policy Brief reflect the opinions of the Authors and do not necessarily overlap with the position of the FREE Network or Sida.

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.

Dreaming of Entrepreneurship or Requiem for a Dream – What Kind of Future Do Parents Envision for Their Children in Belarus?

Posted on November 4, 2024 | Policy Brief

A person performing high-altitude cleaning on a roller coaster structure, symbolizing bravery and entrepreneurship spirit in Belarus, with future generations and children in mind.

Even under current conditions in Belarus, society remains focused on freedom and fostering entrepreneurship. The perception of business as a means of minimizing interaction with the state still exists. This policy brief discusses parents’ perceptions of entrepreneurship as a possible area of self-realization for their children in Belarus, to analyze the role of the family in the formation and reproduction of entrepreneurial capital for future generations. The policy brief is based on a representative survey of individuals aged 18 to 64 who reside in Belarus, conducted from June to August 2024. The findings suggest Belarusian parents are largely positive toward entrepreneurship as a future avenue for their children, despite the continuing deterioration of conditions for the business sector.

The perception of private business and entrepreneurship in Belarus has undergone significant transformation over the course of the country’s modern history. Emerging from the Soviet era, which was distinctly anti-entrepreneurial, both the business sector and the Belarusian society have evolved. In a context where mass privatization did not take place, society – initially skeptical of entrepreneurs, often viewing them as dishonest “speculators” – gradually came to recognize that entrepreneurs are generally hardworking individuals who not only generate income for themselves but also create opportunities for others.

Despite the Belarusian authorities’ conservative and often restrictive approach toward business and entrepreneurship, pro-entrepreneurial values have taken root in Belarusian society. This has contributed to the development of a relatively dynamic and productive private sector, increasingly seen as a desirable environment for employment and growth. From 2012 through 2020, the share of the private sector in employment increased by 7.7 percentage points, in export sales of goods and services by 23.9, and in GDP by 14.6 percentage points, respectively (Daneyko et al., 2020).

Over time, businesses in Belarus have thrived, largely due to entrepreneurial skills, investment in human capital, and adaptability to external conditions, rather than reliance on state support or natural resources.

These dynamics further accelerated when Belarusian authorities realized that relying on and investing in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) was not generating the desired economic growth and employment, and a gradual liberalization of business conditions was introduced (Daneyko et al., 2020). This liberalization allowed the government to delay urgent structural reforms needed in the SOE sector, focusing instead on reducing excess employment, which was absorbed by the growing private sector (Chubrik, 2021; BEROC, 2023).

However, following the 2020 presidential elections and subsequent mass protests, the contribution of the private sector to the economy began to be downplayed in official rhetoric. Entrepreneurs were increasingly portrayed as dishonest individuals, profiting from unjustified price increases and lacking loyalty to the state. In response, the government intensified control over entrepreneurial activities, adopting several significant legislative changes aimed at regulating prices and individual entrepreneurs’ activities.

Moreover, the comprehensive sanctions imposed on Belarus in recent years have made the overall business environment more opaque and challenging. These conditions have enhanced the risk of legal violations during business operations, which in turn increases the personal risks for business owners and managers, potentially threatening their personal freedom.

In this hostile environment, families have become the decisive factor influencing one’s decisions about creating businesses and providing emotional, financial, and instrumental support.

Family as a Driver of Entrepreneurial Careers

There is significant evidence that family upbringing plays a crucial role in fostering entrepreneurial qualities and skills in children, which in turn positively influences their interest in starting their own businesses (Chauhan et al., 2024; Osorio et al., 2017). Parents’ knowledge, accumulated experience, and willingness to provide emotional and practical support further encourage entrepreneurial aspirations in children. A family’s support in developing relevant values and qualities also reflects how attractive entrepreneurship is in the eyes of parents.

Families also serve as role models, transmitting best practices and influencing children’s educational and career choices (Edelman et al., 2016). This support can help young people overcome common barriers to entry into entrepreneurship, such as lack of experience, resources, or social capital, increasing the prospect of starting their own.

The role of family support is particularly important in environments with insufficient structural or financial backing for entrepreneurship, as is the case in Belarus (Maleki et al., 2023; Guerrero & Marozau, 2023). In such contexts, the family’s role in fostering entrepreneurial ambition becomes a key factor in enabling the next generation of entrepreneurs to succeed.

Attitudes Towards Entrepreneurs

The perception of business in Belarus is reflected in the general attitude toward entrepreneurs and their role in the economy and society. Parents are the main influencers and role models shaping children’s entrepreneurial attitudes like risk-taking, problem-solving, and independence (Georgescu & Herman, 2020).

In a recent survey of 2,000 Belarusian respondents aged 18 to 64, including 826 parents of children under 18, participants were asked to select the statement that best describes their attitude towards Belarusian entrepreneurs. The findings suggest that individuals with children under 18 tend to have a more positive view of business and are more likely to choose favorable statements about entrepreneurs (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. Attitudes towards entrepreneurs

Graph showing attitudes towards Belarusian entrepreneurs by age and parental status, highlighting views on entrepreneurship.

Source: Calculations based on survey data. Note: The graph displays the answers to the question “Which statement best describes your attitude towards Belarusian entrepreneurs?” and is displayed as percent of respondents in the corresponding group.

Almost half of the respondents who have children under 18 (49.9 percent) describe their attitude towards entrepreneurs as the most positive option choice as they “earn their living through honest labor, generate employment opportunities, and stimulate economic development”. This share is significantly higher than among respondents without children (37.8 percent). A very positive attitude toward Belarusian entrepreneurship is also characteristic of young cohorts of respondents aged 18–24 (47.7 percent) and 25–34 (49.5 percent). This resonates well with the distribution found in a previous study by the IPM Research Center and BEROC (2019) and indicates that recent changes in the official rhetoric and entrepreneurship-related legislation have not yet damaged the public image of Belarusian entrepreneurs and businessmen.

Preferred Careers for Children

In the survey, Belarusian parents were asked to select areas of employment (choosing no more than three options) in which they would like to see their sons and daughters. The vast majority (69.2 percent) chose the option “to run their own business, to be entrepreneurs/freelancers” as the desired future for their children. Among other popular areas of activity were entrepreneurships’ antipoles; work within law enforcement agencies (22.9 percent) and civil service (16.1 percent). Interestingly, the choice of a future related to entrepreneurship for a child does not significantly differ by the child’s gender (see Figure 2).

Figure 2. Preferred careers for children, by gender

Source: Calculations based on survey data. Note: The graph displays the answers to the question “What would you like your child to do in the future?” and is displayed as percent of respondents in the corresponding group.As one might expect, parents-entrepreneurs more often associate their children’s future with entrepreneurship (80.9 percent) compared to non-entrepreneurial respondents (65.7 percent) (see Figure 3). Similarly, female entrepreneur respondents more often than others prefer their daughters to engage in business in the future (80.9 percent). This level of approval of an entrepreneurial future for daughters may be related to an understanding of the self-realization opportunities that business provides for women, compared to other employment options. Working “for themselves” allows women to avoid barriers and limitations encountered when working for an employer and it may also be associated with schedule flexibility and an ability to improve work-life balance.

Figure 3. Preferred careers for children, by parents’ occupational background

Survey results showing Belarusian parents' preferences for their children's future careers, highlighting entrepreneurship.

Source: Calculations based on survey data. Note: The graph displays the answers to the question “What would you like your child to do in the future?” and is displayed as percent of respondents in the corresponding group.

Attitudes Towards Entrepreneurship

The attitude towards entrepreneurship was captured by asking parents to choose what they would tell their children if they expressed the intention to become entrepreneurs. Based on interviews and a pilot survey, multiple statements that carried positive, neutral, and negative connotations were presented in the questionnaire (see Figure 4).

Parents interested in their children becoming entrepreneurs in the future tend to foster a positive view of entrepreneurship through encouraging messages about business. From the results, parents tell their children that business is “dream, wealth, and freedom”, with more than half of the respondents who wish for their children to have an “entrepreneurial destiny” choosing this triad to convey that business is a positive path.

Among those who do not see their children in entrepreneurship, these categories also dominate in justifying the attractiveness of business. However, those parents are more cautious and tend to warn their children about the associated risks of uncertainty and instability.

Figure 4. Attitudes towards entrepreneurship

Survey results on entrepreneurship in Belarus: perspectives of parents on their children's future in business.

Source: Calculations based on the survey data. Note: The graph displays the answers to the question “Which statements best describe what you would tell a child if he/she expressed a willingness to become an entrepreneur?” and is displayed as percent of respondents in the respective group. Respondents were asked to select all applicable response options.

Overall, the selection of positive associations by most parents indicates a high level of support for children’s interest in entrepreneurship within families. By choosing the triad “dream, wealth and freedom”, parents emphasize priorities related to the formation of free individuals and see potential in their children for engaging in business in the future, despite the existence of, and appeal from, other career choices. Employment (regardless of ownership structure) is much less frequently considered as an appealing prospect for children’s future. The likely rationale is the dependent position of employees within the current sociopolitical context, which partially undermines the benefits of private-sector employment. Therefore, many respondents may perceive employment as “captivity” – in contrast to the freedom associated with entrepreneurship. Thus, the current generation of parents largely want their children to have minimal interactions with the state.

Conclusions

Despite the current challenging conditions for business in Belarus, many parents still see entrepreneurship as a pathway to independence and freedom for their children. The role of the family in nurturing entrepreneurial potential should not be underestimated in this context. The fact that many parents see entrepreneurship as a means of self-realization for their children indicates a sustained positive perception of business within the population, despite the recent years negative portrayal of entrepreneurs in official media outlets.

For many, business is associated with the positive triad of “dream, wealth, and freedom”. This is particularly true for the current generation of parents, whose worldviews were shaped during the relatively open periods of the late 1990s and early 2000s. For them, entrepreneurship represents a means for their children to achieve personal freedom and self-realization without having to leave the country.

However, there is a notable contrast between these aspirations and the reality of doing business in Belarus today – a divergence that could prove pivotal for the future of private business in the country. Entrepreneurship in Belarus has the potential to either become a chance for future generations to help develop the nation (“dreaming of entrepreneurship”) or, if suppressed further, a missed opportunity (“requiem for a dream”).

There is no guarantee that future generations of Belarusians will share the same positive attitude toward entrepreneurship and pro-democratic values as their parents, if they lack real opportunities to start and run businesses or public success stories. The “fork” in the future of entrepreneurship in Belarus has another critical dimension: if parents no longer see opportunities for self-realization within the country, they may consider leaving it. Following the 2020 political crisis, Belarus has seen significant emigration driven by the risks of domestic criminal prosecution and the search for safety abroad.

The main implications for the decision-makers concerned with a future stable, predictable and democratic Belarus, could thus be the following:

  1. Supporting entrepreneurship as a driver of democratic values: In a non-democratic environment, entrepreneurs are known to act as carriers and multipliers of pro-democratic values such as freedom, personal responsibility, and self-determination. (Audretsch & Moog, 2022; Marozau, 2023). The (still) positive attitudes to entrepreneurship, intergenerational transmission of entrepreneurial values, and overall survival of the Belarusian private should be perceived, and treated, as a foundation for counteracting (some of the) ongoing negative institutional developments.
  2. Transmitting pro-entrepreneurial values to future generations: With the same idea in mind, it is important to support families transmitting pro-entrepreneurial values to future generations by complementing their efforts through, e.g., education. This can be realized by offering additional training programs for children and adolescents, such as financial literacy schools, business clubs, and leadership schools.
  3. Advancing the role of female entrepreneurship: The increasing participation of women in entrepreneurship presents an opportunity to transfer values, particularly to daughters, and thereby preserving entrepreneurial capital and overcoming gender inequality issues in Belarus.

Acknowledgment

The study underlying this policy brief was made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). BEROC acknowledges support by Pyxera Global whose financial and technical assistance for INNOVATE is part of a USAID-funded activity to support the innovative-based economy and private sector growth in Belarus.

The contents of this brief are the sole responsibility of BEROC and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States government.

References

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.